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000
FXUS63 KPAH 260508
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1207 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

A wedge of low clouds continues to hang tough this afternoon from
the kmvn area southward across most of western KY and se Missouri.
These clouds are keeping temps down. Visible satellite loops show
the clouds are starting to erode more quickly from the west. At
this rate however, it is unlikely the cloud mass will completely
disappear before nocturnal cooling causes it to expand again.

Cloudiness will redevelop tonight as moist southerly flow combines
with nocturnal cooling. In addition to the low clouds, some
patchy fog is expected by early Sat morning. The clouds and
humidity will keep low temps generally around 60.

On Saturday, increasing southerly winds should help to dissipate
the low clouds a little faster than today. However, it may be
after noon before the sun appears. Highs will generally be around
80. Partly cloudy skies are expected Sat night, with lows in the
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Deterministic model output (GFS/EC/CMC/UKMET) and ensemble mean
solutions from the ECENS/GEFS/CMCE have come more in line, and
support forecast trends started yesterday, raising our overall
forecast confidence in the long term. Our focus will be on precip
chances late Sunday night through Monday night, and then on the cool
down later in the week. Pattern amplification is still forecast to
take place. The trend has been for the evolution of the mean trof
axis to develop farther west and deeper Sunday through Monday.
However, until the energy approaching the Pacific NW actually gets
over the CONUS, allowing the pattern evolution to commence, our
forecast will try and account for uncertainty.

At this time, Sunday will be dry. Some moisture and lift does shoot
up across the TN Valley. It should stay just to our southeast.
Something to monitor. Sunday evening should be mainly dry as well.
Maybe a slight chance of showers toward 06z SEMO, SW IL. After 06z,
PoPs start to increase across the aforementioned areas. However it
may remain mainly dry west KY into southwest IN. The surface front
should be to about the Ohio River by 12z Monday. So, most of the
precip lags along and behind it. There is a minor hint of elevated
instability, so a minimal thunder mention will be maintained. Not
sold it`s going to happen.

Highest PoPs for showers (maybe a rumble of Thunder) will be Monday
as the H5 trof moves from west to east. Temperatures could be a bust
Monday, as some guidance shows early morning highs, with falling
temps into the 50s (by midday SEMO, SW IL and late afternoon west
KY, southwest IN). All depends on the degree of warmer air to start
the day and speed of the front. PoPs for showers will diminish from
west to east Monday night. Thinking Tuesday is a mainly dry day.
However a slight chance of showers across the KY Pennyrile may be
warranted. Will make a last minute call on that.

Dry weather for the rest of the long term Wednesday through Friday.
The "much cooler" airmass may not arrive until Thursday and Friday.
We still have a westerly trajectory Wednesday, until another
boundary swings across the area Wednesday night. So areas on
Wednesday should see 70s for highs. Then highs should be limited to
the 60s Thursday and Friday with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Another challenging forecast overnight as clearing has taken place
across the Evansville tri-state area, while low MVFR/IFR stratus
prevails elsewhere. Expect the stratus to spread back into most of
the area overnight. Areas that remain clear may see the development
of patchy locally dense fog. Low MVFR/IFR conditions will likely
start the day Saturday, with a gradual improvement to MVFR and VFR
expected throughout the day. Some guidance lingers the low stratus
into Saturday night, but confidence is currently low. Will keep a
few-scattered 2-3kft deck in the TAFs as a compromise for now.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RJP