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000
FXUS63 KPAH 142316
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
616 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

A large area of high pressure at the surface was centered over the
region today, making for a rather nice day out there as dew points
have dropped into the 50s, which was a welcome relief from the
humidity. The center of this surface high will continue to drift
east tonight, as a system pushes east across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region.

On Sunday, we will remain under the influence of high pressure, so
dry conditions will continue. However, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will be building over the area on Sunday and into Monday.
Even after a rather cool night tonight, temperatures will quickly
climb on Sunday as 850mb temperatures increase and low level winds
become southerly. So, we should see highs a few degrees warmer on
Sunday, with readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s just about
everywhere. Moisture will also be increasing and dewpoints will be
coming up with will mean an increase in humidity that will start on
Sunday and will stay with us for a while.

On Sunday night, there will be a weak front situated just to our
north. The front has been progged to slide south/southwest into the
area on Monday, bringing mainly just some cloudiness with it.
However, an isolated shower or storm is not out of the question
Monday or Monday night. This chance definitely is not strong enough
to warrant inclusion into the forecast at this time however. Will
raise PoPs but continue to keep it unmentionable for now. Given the
decent depth of the moisture on Monday, would expect more clouds
than are current forecast, so will likely bump up cloud cover a bit.
Latest guidance indicates a continuation of lower 90s for highs on
Monday and that does seem reasonable given the latest data. Given
the increase in humidity, there may be a few locations that reach
around 100 degrees for heat indices.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

The beginning of the extended forecast period is marked by the
medium range guidance, both deterministic and ensemble models,
with a high amplitude ridge axis bisecting the WFO PAH forecast
area along a southwest to northeast axis.

There is some variability in the model depiction of shortwave
energy impacting the location and orientation of the mean western
U.S. trough, centered along the Pacific Northwest Coast Tuesday
and Wednesday. The 12z Saturday deterministic GFS is the most
robust with shifting the trough eastward into the intermountain
region by Thursday, increasing the baroclinic response into the
the WFO PAH forecast area in the form of more widespread showers
and thunderstorms.

At this point, forecast preference is toward the NBM (National
Blend of Models), the European (ECMWF), and to a lesser extent the
Canadian (CMCnH) guidance with this package. This is a much drier
solution, which keeps the ridge entrenched across the WFO PAH
forecast area through the period. Allowed for some small PoP
chances over southeast Missouri Thursday afternoon, and then again
on Friday. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions should dominate for
the extended forecast period.

With drier air in place, common diurnal ranges of 25 degrees or
more will be common next week. With lowered dewpoints, heat index
values will remain in check in the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to bring
generally clear skies with light winds. Only fly in ointment could
be a touch of early morning fog in prone locations.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...GM