Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 122029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
329 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Tonight, low clouds are likely to diminish as high pressure
continues dropping south into the Plains. The combination of
clearing skies and decreasing winds will result in a cold night.
Lows will range from the mid 20s over snow covered areas to around
30 where the ground is bare.

Tuesday will be very similar to today, with the center of the
surface high nosing down into the southern Plains. Stratocumulus
clouds once again increasing again, esp east areas, as an upper
low drops into the upper Ohio Valley. Temps will be hard pressed
to reach 40 once again where snow cover persists.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will be mainly clear as high
pressure moves east across the lower Mississippi Valley and a
nearly stagnant mid/upper level omega pattern becomes established
near the continental divide. Highs will nudge closer to 50. As
southwest winds increase Wed night, lows will be in the lower to
mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

High pressure will be centered southeast of our region on Thursday.
Flow around the high, and around a low pressure system to our west,
will give us southwest winds across our region, resulting in warming
temperatures and increasing moisture.

A front will develop across our region off the low to our west on
Thursday. This front will slowly sink south across the area late
Thursday night into Friday.  Showers will develop along and north of
the front, giving us good chances of showers across the entire PAH
forecast late Thursday night into Friday.  Models take the front far
enough south Friday night to give us decreasing shower chances
Friday evening, with showers confined to our far southern counties
by late Friday night.  A few thunderstorms will be possible in our
extreme southern counties Friday night as models show some
increasing instability.  As we get into Saturday, ECMWF and GFS have
a similar track of the low, but ECMWF is much faster than the GFS
moving the low eastward. Consensus is leaning toward the slower GFS
solution, which will keep showers in the forecast Saturday afternoon
into early Sunday as the low moves into our area by 12z Sunday.  A
few thunderstorms are possible area wide as we get into Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning with the proximity of the low.

Timing uncertainties increase on Sunday as both models show another
area of low pressure over the central Plains by 00z Monday.  We may
see more of a lull in shower activity on Sunday depending on the
location of the associated front, but for now we will keep decent
chances of showers in through Sunday.  In any case, it looks like a
wet pattern will continue into next week.

.HWO input...There is a slight chance for thunderstorms in southern
portions of  southeast Missouri and far west Kentucky Friday night
into Saturday morning, with slight chances for storms across the
entire area by Saturday night.  Severe storms are not expected at
this time.


Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Clear skies early this morning will give way to low clouds
arriving from the northwest around midday. The leading edge of
the mvfr cigs was moving southeast into the kstl metro area at
11z. Increasing low level lapse rates from daytime heating should
assist the advancement of these low clouds into our area by 18z.
The low clouds will likely decrease around sunset as the
atmosphere stabilizes.

Winds will be rather gusty from the northwest, gusting near 20 kt
from midday today to late afternoon.




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