Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 181425
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
925 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes off the coast this afternoon. A cold front
crosses the area late tonight, then stalls along the Gulf coast
Thursday. Low pressure tracks northeast along this boundary
Thursday night into Friday as arctic high pressure plunges into
the nations mid section.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 920 AM EST Tuesday...

FG continues to hang on over portions of SE VA/NE NC and is
expected to be slow in eroding through late this morning.
Otw...clouds are already spreading into the region from the WSW
ahead of the next cold front approaching from the W. Have generally
kept the trend of the prev forecast in increasing PoPs W-E after
18-21Z/18 (to 15-20% at the coast to 30-40% W of I 95). Once
the FG dissipates...mild wx the rest of today. Did make minor
adjustments to high temperatures due to FG hanging on longer
(SE) and increasing clouds (all areas). Highs from the m-u50s W
and NW to the m60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EST Tuesday...

Abundant moisture progged to stream ne ahead/along and even behind
the cold front that crosses the area tonight. Thus, increased PoPS
to categorical most areas with PoPS tapering off late across the
north. QPF avgg btwn 1/4 to 1/2 inch (greatest se where some mdt
rainfall is psbl after midnite). Lows in the 40s except a few upr
30s nwrn zones.

The cold front pushes south of the area Wed morning with a 1045+ mb
high building se from the nw. Rain lingers across the srn half of
the fa during the morning and through the aftrn hrs across nrn NC.
Otw, becoming pt to mstly sunny across the north remaining mstly
cldy south. Cooler than today but still near normal temps with highs
in the upr 40s-lwr 50s, coolest south where clouds and pcpn lingers.

Mstly clr to start off Wed nite then increasing clouds from the
south after midnite. Lows upr 20s north to mid 30s south.

Forecast gets a bit more interesting Thurs as moisture from a srn
stream systm bucks up against the dry air from the strong sfc high
to the nw. Model differences with no consistancy makes for a low
confidence forecast attm. Will keep most of the fa dry except show
some light rain moving north to the VA/NC border in the aftrn. Despite
falling thicknesses, expect the pcpn to be main in liquid form thru
the daylight hrs with highs 40-45, athough temps could drop back into
the upr 30s across the south if the pcpn comes in faster than expected.

Thurs nites forecast is still up for grabs given all the different
solns out there. After coordinating with WPC, have based Thurs nites
forecast more in line with the ECMWF (which seems to have maintained
the best consistancy over the past 2 days). Thicknesses support a
mix rain/snow changeover to snow before tapering off and ending after
midnite across sern Va/ne NC. QPF is anthr challenge given a drier
model soln. Given a qpf btwn .05 and .15 in there, went ahead and
added some minor accumls to the grids. For now will show a dusting
as far north as a MVF-PHF- AKQ-AVC line...arnd 1/2 inch across the
rest of sern VA with around 1 inch across ne NC. These values would
be a winter wx advsry at worst, but expect this to change as the
event draws near. Lows in the 20s to arnd 30 se. Note...the ensembles
have lowered the chance for 3 in or more of snow so have indicated
this change in the day 4 winter wx graphic.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EST Monday...

he 12Z/17 GFS and 12Z/17 ECMWF (along with their respective
ensembles) are in fairly good agreement through the extended period.
High pressure will build from the Plains/MS Valley, eastward into
and over the region Fri into early Sun morning. The high will shift
off the coast and into the Atlc during Sun, with low pressure moving
into the Middle MS Valley by Mon morning. This low will then track
ENE toward the area during Mon. Dry/sunny and chilly on Fri with
highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Sunny and milder on Sat with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Partly to mostly sunny and
warmer on Sun with highs ranging through the 50s. Becoming mostly
cloudy or cloudy late Sun night through Mon, with increasing chances
for rain showers. Highs on Mon will range through the 50s. Lows will
range through the 20s Fri night, in the mid 20s to mid 30s Sat
night, and in the mid 30s to lower 40s Sun night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Tuesday...

The areas of IFR fog across the sern TAF sites will burn off this
morning with VFR CIGS to follow as high pressure slowly moves east.
MVFR CIGS expected tonight as shwrs overspread the area ahead of
a cold front that will cross the area after 06Z. Lcl IFR CIGS/VSBYS
in both rain and fog are possible tonight. SW winds aob 10 kts today
will shift to the north and become rather gusty (15-25 KTS) late
tonight along the coast.


OUTLOOK...
High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Thursday morning. Low
pressure tracks across the Sern Conus Thurs night. This will bring
a chc of a rain/snow mix then all snow for far srn VA and NE NC
along with degraded flight conditions. High pressure returns Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EST Tuesday...

E winds 5-10 kt early this morning will veer to the southeast by
late this morning as high pressure drifts eastward and offshore.
Winds become SSW into this afternoon but no higher than 10 kt. Low
pressure moves across SE Canada this evening, pushing a cold front
into and through the area tonight. Winds turn to the NNW behind the
front and increase to 15-20 knots through late morning Wednesday,
except 10-15 kt for the Rivers. Winds may also stay around 20 kt for
the Currituck Sound well into Wednesday afternoon. Have hoisted SCA
headlines to account for these winds. Waves will reach 2-3 ft on the
Bay. Seas build to 5 ft south of Parramore Island. Not as confident
of SCA conditions north of Parramore, so have not raised headlines
here as of yet. Seas should remain around 5 ft off the Outer banks
through Wed evening.

The extended portion of the marine forecast remains in flux with the
potential for low pressure to form off the Southeast coast on
Thursday as arctic high pressure over the central Plains builds
southeast. How far north the low comes will have significant impacts
on the wind/wave/seas forecast. Consensus of the models this morning
suggests SCA conditions for much of the waters from late Thursday
night through Friday and have adjusted the forecast accordingly.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ633-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ERI/TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM



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