Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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971
FXUS61 KAKQ 150531
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
131 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves across the local area through Tuesday. Rain
chances increase early Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold
front. Clearing with gusty winds Wednesday night into Thursday.
Dry and pleasant Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Surface obs and satellite products are confirming pockets of
dense fog across SE VA and NE NC. Issued an SPS for the next
several hours for this area and will monitor to see if that
needs to be extended through daybreak. Expect pockets of fog to
develop across the VA peninsula and MD eastern shore early this
morning as well. Looking at temp observations, many areas west
of I-95 are already in the upper 40s, where locations closer to
the coast are mid to upper 50s. Don`t expect temps to drop much
more than a few degrees as most locations are already at or near
their dew point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...

Dry and pleasant wx Tue w/ mainly SKC and highs in the l70s N
and m70s central/S. Winds turn to the SE by afternoon as sfc hi
pres drifts off the coast ahead of lo pres over the Great Lakes.
Secondary lo pres will form over the Carolinas Tue night into
early Wed. Onset of higher PoPs spreading from SW to NE late Tue
night through Wed morning. Some much needed rain will impact
the area from about mid morning through early afternoon. Highs
in the m60s NW to m70s SE. Forecast soundings do show some
meager instability across the E and SE portions Wed afternoon
ahead of the cold front so have continued w/ a SLGT CHC T
mention in those areas. PoPs trend downward quickly by late Wed
afternoon/evening as gusty WNW winds begin to usher in
cooler/dry air.

Winds stay up Wed night...esp E of I-95. OTW...SKC and cool Wed
night w/ from the l-m40s W of I-95 to the l50s at the coast.
Deep layered WNW flow Thu as hi pres remains W of the mountains.
Still a bit breezy/(even windy near the coast) w/ a partly
cloudy sky. Highs in the l-m60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Sfc hi pres moves across the FA Fri-Sat resulting in dry/near
seasonable wx. Return flow behind the high as it moves off the
coast Sun through Mon will likely bring an increase in moisture
(and PoPs) from the SW ahead of lo pres tracking through the
Midwest - initially inland during Sun...then all areas by Sun
night/Mon.

Lows Thu night 40-45F inland to around 50F at the immediate
coast. Highs Fri in the l-m60s. Lows Fri night in the l-m40s
inland to the l50s at the (immediate coast). Highs Sat in the
u60s-l70s. Lows Sat night in the u40s inland to the l-m50s at
the coast. Highs Sun in the l70s at the coast and m70s elsewhere.
Highs Mon from the l70s N to the u70s far SE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday...

Fog is already affecting some TAF locations early this morning.
Expect periods of LIFR/IFR visbys to persist through at least
daybreak at KPHF/KECG, and visbys may drop to IFR at times at
KORF/KSBY as well. Fog will be stubborn to disperse after
daybreak but locations should return to VFR by 12-13Z. Winds
will be NE early on Tuesday becoming SE by late in the day.
Speeds will remain under 10kts.

Looking ahead...a cold front will cross the area on Wednesday.
Periods of showers are expected with a slight chance of
thunderstorms, especially closer to the coast. Flight
restrictions are possible in areas of heavy rain. After the
frontal passage, gusty WNW winds are expected late Wednesday
night and through the day on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Late this aftn, a weak cold front was laying acrs NE NC, while
sfc high pressure was over the OH valley and KY. This front will
push SE of the area this evening, then another weak cold front
will cross the waters early Tue morning. While winds will
increase, the CAA and pressure gradient is too weak for
issuance of any SCA headlines. N/NE winds at up to 15 kt with a
few gusts to 20 kt will be possible. NE winds 5-15 kt Tue
morning will become E at 5-10 kt during the aftn. Sub-SCA
conditions then prevail through Tue night, before another area
of low pressure is progged to impact the area on Wed, followed
by a much stronger cold front Wed night. Solid SCAs (due to
winds) look likely Wed night-Thu behind the front. Local wind
probabilities are starting to latch onto ~50% chance for Gale
gusts at buoy 44009 by Wed night, and expect that Gales may be
needed over the northern coastal waters. Due to the offshore NW
flow, seas will not build that much despite the strong winds,
generally to 4-6 ft while waves in the Bay build to ~4 ft with
2-3 ft waves in the rivers. The current forecast has winds
remaining aoa SCA thresholds for Bay and coast through ~12z
Fri. Sub-SCA conditions return by late Fri, as high pressure
settles over the waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Flood Statement for the Albemarle Sound was extended to 4 AM.
Level at Chowan river at Edenton continues to drop and should go
below action stage in the next several hours.

The rip current risk will be moderate over area beaches Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...CMF
SHORT TERM...ALB/RHR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...CMF
MARINE...LKB/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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