Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 250627
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
127 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather with seasonal temps expected Saturday and Sunday.
A weak system to provide a slight chance of showers Sunday night
and early Monday with another weak system possibly affecting the
area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front has pushed through the area and rain has ended. The
upper trough over the Ohio Valley will slowly lift
northeastward through tonight as surface high pressure builds
into the forecast area. Fair weather expected today and tonight
with westerly winds ushering in drier air to the region. There
may be a period of fog and stratus this morning but skies should
mix out into a cumulus field with daytime heating this
afternoon. High temperatures expected to be in the 50s this
afternoon while overnight lows tonight will fall into the mid
30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
With the 500mb pattern weakly amplified during the extended
period, a weak ridge will be present in the western US with
general troughing through the Southeast. This will lead to some
weak systems passing through the Carolinas, the first of which
arrives Sunday night into Monday. A disturbance will drop in
from the northwest with limited moisture while another system
passes by to the south. Models have continued to not support
these systems phasing until they are well offshore. With the
best moisture likely in the southern forecast area, have decided
to increase pops slightly. Accompanying QPF will be less than a
tenth of an inch with the northern disturbance lacking
significant moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will return briefly for Tuesday before the next
fast moving upper trough will cross the forecast area on
Wednesday and Wed night. Models continue to disagree on the
exact location of this system as well as the amount of moisture
associated with it. For now, have kept pops fairly low to
account for this uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front has pushed east of the forecast area with
rainfall also no longer affecting the terminals. Some lingering
low clouds affecting AGS/DNL/OGB but improvement is expected by
07z-08z. There should be enough of a westerly wind around 5 to 7
knots to prevent much fog development through morning but there
is a large area of LIFR fog/stratus over the Upstate and latest
satellite imagery showing this area of restrictions slowly
building northeastward. At this point will be carrying an
optimistic forecast with VFR conditions expected at all
terminals by 09z-10z but confidence is low as the restrictions
to the west may reach the terminals in a few hours and will
amend as needed.

Otherwise, westerly winds will pick up and become gusty by 14z
with some scattered cumulus expected through the day. Winds will
subside at sunset with skies clearing.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible late Sunday
night and early Monday as a disorganized area of low pressure
crosses the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.