Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMAF 091718 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light occasionally gusty southeast winds will
continue the next 24 hours. TS will develop in southeastern NM
that may affect CNM/HOB, but confidence is too low to include in
the TAF at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will continue to decrease from previous 24hrs,
but SB instability axis/mid-level theta-e ridge do warrant the
continuation of isold PoPs across the far wrn areas today.
Negligible height falls and just slightly cooler 85h temps support
today`s high temps in the U90s PB to 103 wrn PB/Upper Trans Pecos.
Mid-level theta-e ridge axis will be trapped within the subtropical
ridge circulation with a nw steering component still advertised Mon
PM. As such seems like a pretty good set up for TSRA to form near
elevated heat sources and drift e-se into what will be better SB
instability helping to sustain storm far e and longer into the
evening Mon. We make some adjustment to PoPs reflecting a little
farther ewd extent in the evening. A similar set up Tue but the
storm track does look farther n and thus PoPs will be lower than
those on Mon, possible exception Davis Mtns. Thereafter dry/hot
conditions will be the rule, 30-34C 85h temps PB-SE NM,
respectively. Heat advisory conditions will be possible, especially
Tue-Sat.

CLIMATE...
Climatologically speaking we come off the peak on Mon Aug 10th when
average daily high temp drops to 94. During the period Apr 1st
thru Jul 31st 2020 MAF has had only 0.54" of rain. This is 2nd
driest period on record, the record belongs to 2011.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  74 100  76 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                      100  73 102  74 /  10  10  20  20
Dryden                         98  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  72 101  74 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 92  70  94  72 /  20  10  30  20
Hobbs                          97  71 100  72 /  10  10  20  20
Marfa                          95  63  95  66 /  20  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           98  74 100  76 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         99  74 101  76 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                          102  74 104  77 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.