Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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272
FXUS64 KMAF 171112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light winds are common this morning with only a slight uptick
after 15Z. Satellite shows only a few high clouds approaching
CNM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...

High temperatures will be 7-10 degrees warmer today region-wide
as winds veer to the S-SW ahead of the next upper-level trof
which is currently moving onshore over northern CA. This trof
is expected to deepen and eject into the central plains tomorrow
afternoon. Models indicate a 40-50 kt 500 mb jet will overspread
the region and bring breezy to windy conditions to northwestern
portions of the area. Current NAM run shows a mountain wave
signature developing across the Guadalupe Mountains early tomorrow
morning. It is possible we could see a low-end high wind event at
The Bowl and GDP, but will hold off on issuing any products for
now. Sfc winds will veer out of the W and cause temperatures to
soar above normal Friday afternoon w/a few 90s expected in some
locations. The aforementioned trof will drag a weak cold front
through the CWA early on Saturday which will bring temperatures
back down to around normal. Yet another trof will swing into the
plain states Sunday-Monday. Winds will again shift out of the west
and cause temperatures to warm well-above normal on Sunday before
a slightly stronger front arrives on Monday. A few showers or
t-storms will be possible across the far E Permian Basin during
frontal passage, but not expecting any significant rainfall
amounts. Very dry air will filter into the region behind the
front on Monday which will keep weather rather quiescent heading
into the middle of next week.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     83  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       81  56  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  57  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  81  58  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 74  55  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          79  52  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          76  47  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           82  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         82  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           83  55  91  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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