Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Tue May 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Tue May 15 2018

Currently...back edge of convection shifting eastward across the
plains early this morning, and will include some low pops over the
far southeast through sunrise to catch any convective remnants.
Lower clouds and fog much less prevalent this morning than the past
few days, with only some very patchy light fog expected near the
Palmer Divide and across the far southeast plains for an hour or two
past sunrise.

Today...sufficient instability for afternoon/evening convection
across the eastern mountains and plains, with CAPE in the 600-1200
J/KG range by mid afternoon. Weak upper trough still over the state
today, though strongest upper level forcing and low level moisture
convergence will be along and north of the Palmer Divide. Somewhat
of a cap also in place over the eastern plains, which may limit
activity as it pushes eastward away from the mountains. Overall,
expect isolated to scattered tsra to develop over the eastern
mountains around mid-afternoon, with weakening storms moving onto
the plains late in the day. Best chance of stronger/more persistent
storms will be along the Palmer Divide where forcing is greater,
though shear looks too weak for much in the way of severe weather.
Max temps today will drift downward a few degf at many locations as
mid levels cool slightly.

Tonight...convection along and north of the Palmer may congeal into
an e-se moving MCS, which could clip nrn/far ern portions of the
plains overnight before reaching KS by early Wed morning. Will have
highest pops these areas, while storms end fairly quickly in the
evening farther west over the mountains and I-25 corridor. With
drier air moving into wrn portions of the area overnight, min temps
over the mountains and interior valleys will be cooler than the past
few nights, with some below freezing readings over the peaks and
highest interior valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Tue May 15 2018

Wednesday through Friday...An upper low over central CA Wed morning
will gradually slide east into the Great Basin thu and Fri. This
will set up warm southwest flow across the Four Corners and into
western Co, which will increase Thu and Fri as the low nears.
Convection is expected to be more isolated and diurnal in nature as
the dryline develops along the eastern border and gulf moisture
lurks to the east. The big story though is the return of heat, and
with increasing winds both Thu and Fri, critical fire weather
conditions will likely become a concern both day. Look for highs in
the 70s for the high valleys each day, while the plains warm into
the upper 70s to upper 80s.

Saturday and Sunday...Models still indicate general low pressure
across the region for the weekend as the upper low weakens and
ejects to the northeast late Fri. This will push a cold front south
across the eastern CO plains overnight into early Sat morning. Max
temps across the east will cool by about 15 degrees as cloud cover
and pcpn chances increase. Expect max temps in the 70s for most
areas both days.

Monday...Warm temps return as the upper flow mimics what is expected
this week. Another upper low develops over the Pacific and moves
onshore across CA on mon. This will once again produce warmer w-sw
flow across the Four Corners, with temps in the 70s for the high
valleys and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains. At this time, there
still looks like there will be enough residual llvl moisture for
isolated to scattered convection across all of the forecast area Mon
aftn and eve. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue May 15 2018

Morning high resolution model runs indicate two main areas of
convection will track across the area this afternoon and evening.
The first area is expected to initiate somewhere in the Trinidad
vicinity around 2 pm and then track east across the plains. The
second area of convection is expected to initiate along the Palmer
Divide late this afternoon and then spread south across the
immediate Pikes Peak Region during the evening. Storms in these
two areas of convection could produce quarter size hail, 60 mph
winds, locally heavy rain and lightning. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible elsewhere across the flight area today with
primary threats of lightning and wind gusts to around 50 mph.

KCOS could get in on the thunderstorm action across the Pikes Peak
Region late this afternoon. KPUB and KALS will likely miss out on
thunderstorm activity today.




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