Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 160436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1036 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Updated to add the mention of thunder across the Pikes Peak region
through midnight.

UPDATE Issued at 800 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Updated to end Red Flag Warning for this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

An upper level trof has been bringing snow to the Continental Dvd
today, with the best snows falling over the southwest CO mtns. The
upper trof will continue moving east acrs the state this evening,
with an upper low getting wrapped up over the easter central CO
border and northwest CO later tonight.  Some showers are already
spreading into the eastern mtns, and this evening, some may spread
over the southeast plains. The NAM and GFS have be quite consistent
in showing good precip chances over northern and eastern El Paso
county, and over Crowley and Kiowa counties later tonight, so have
kept POPs a little higher in these areas into early Fri morning.
A few to several more inches of snow accumulation are expected into
along the mtns of the Continental Divide thru late tonight. However,
as the upper low continues moving away from the area late tonight,
precip will be tapering off acrs the Continental Divide.  At this
time, it looks like the eastern mtns will only see precip chances
through this evening and then drying out. Winds tonight are expected
to be westerly across southeast and south central CO, with many
areas seeing gusts.  These winds will keep temps generally on the
mild side.  The mtns areas will likely see gusts of 50 to 75 mph,
with the highest gusts likely being over the southern Sangre de
Cristo mtns.  Will go ahead and issue a High Wind Warning for the
southern Sangres beginning late tonight and continuing through Fri

A few showers could linger early Fri morning over Kiowa and maybe
Prowers county.  Also some light snow will probably linger over the
central mtns thru the day.  Winds and High Fire Danger will be the
main concerns for Fri.  Gusty winds are expected thru the day across
all of southeast and south central CO.  In the late morning hours
and into the early evening hour, min RH values are expected to fall
below 15 percent in the San Luis Valley and eastward acrs the
southeast plains.  The only areas that may see slightly higher min
RH values may be over eastern portions of Kiowa and Prowers
counties.  Have decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for Friday
across all of southeast Colorado, for the lower elevations of the
Sangre de Cristo and Wet mtns, and for the San Luis Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...Winter Storm possible over parts of the region late Sunday into
   Sunday night...

The main concern during this long term forecast period is Sunday and
Sunday night as a closed mid level low is forecast to move east just
south of the Colorado and New Mexico border. If this track verifies,
then snow will be likely across the mountains and the Palmer divide.
Winds could be rather strong across the Palmer Divide late
Sunday/Sunday night.

Storm that will move across the northeast plains of CO tomorrow
will be moving out of the region Friday night with winds over the
far eastern plains decreasing.


main concern this day will be near critical fire weather conditions
across the far southern part of the fcst area. Breezy conditions
along with warm conditions and humidity values near critical values
will cause near critical conditions along the NM border region.
Otherwise it will be a warm and breezy day across the region with
gusty southwesterly flow across the higher terrain/valleys and south-
southeast flow across the plains.

Sunday and Monday...

A significant 500 mb trough is fcst to track just south of the CO/NM
border Sunday into early Monday. This amplifying trough will
gradually become negatively tilted and then close-off as it crosses
the Sangre De Cristo mountains in NM. All the long range guidance
(EC/GFS/Canadian) is pretty much in agreement with this solution.
This track would favor the mountains to get snow with the mtns
generally north of US-50 to get the heaviest snow. Additionally,
this system has the potential to be a high impact event for the
Palmer Divide as there could be quite a bit of wind with the snow
(MOS guidance showed some pretty strong winds, especially the MEX
guidance). One concern I have is this system will likely be a
compact system so only slight changes in the track could have a
significant impact on sensible weather. At this time the heaviest
snow/wind on the Palmer Divide will be Sunday evening and night.

By Monday morning any snow will be winding down across the Palmer
with the activity pushing east into KS during the late morning/early
afternoon. Winds will be decreasing during the afternoon time
period. Max temps will be about 6 to 12F cooler on Monday as
compared to Sunday.

Mid week next week...

Northwest flow will prevail during this period with temps gradually
warming up through the period. Guidance shows one or two
disturbances in this flow so central mtns will likely see periods of
snow showers, especially on Tuesday. /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

VFR conditions are expected at KALS the next 24 hrs, although there
could be a few showers in the vicinity thru early this evening.
Southwest to west winds are expected to be very gusty thru this
evening and then weakening a little, but it will still be breezy
thru the night and windy on Friday.

KCOS is expected to have VFR conditions the next 24 hrs, however
this evening thu later tonight there could be some showers in the
vicinity that could briefly lead to lower ceilings. Winds may be
gusty from the south or southwest this evening and then increasing
later tonight from the northwest, with windy conditions continuing
thru Friday.

KPUB is expected to have VFR conditions the next 24 hrs. Gusty south
to southwest winds will be found early this evening, then becoming
northwest late this evening and increasing, and then continuing
through Friday.


Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for COZ222-

High Wind Warning until noon MDT Friday for COZ075.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Friday for COZ060-066-068.



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