Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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217
FXUS65 KPUB 261023
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
423 AM MDT Sat May 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat May 26 2018

An upper level ridge continues to develop over Colorado today. A bi-
product of the passing ridge axis and the deep mixing of the
atmosphere will be near record high temperatures across the region.
A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 12PM through 9PM MDT for
the I-25 corridor and west due to low RH values, windy conditions,
and dry fuels. The far eastern plains have been excluded since
fuels are too moist. The strong winds are in response to a
tightened pressure gradient across the plains. The pressure
gradient is tightening due to a slow moving ridge over and to the
east of the region and an easterly propagating upper level low to
the west of the region. The plains will remain dry throughout
this forecast period, but the eastern San Juan and La Garita
mountains will see a light rain and snow mix Saturday evening.
There is weak instability (CAPE <100 J/kg), southwesterly flow
(upslope flow), and a little bit of moisture to work with. During
the overnight hours moist southeasterly flow advects moisture over
the eastern plains, priming the atmosphere for daytime
thunderstorms on Sunday. Dewpoint values near Springfield around
6AM will be near 60F.

-Skelly

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat May 26 2018

...High Fire Danger and Isolated Severe Storms...

The fire danger will be high Sunday as southwest flow increases
ahead of an approaching upper level low pressure system. Critical
fire weather conditions are expected over the western two-thirds of
the forecast area, from the I-25 corridor westward.  Windy and dry
conditions will also reach into the eastern third of the forecast
area, east of the I-25 corridor, but recent precipitation has
brought enough moisture to curtail the fire threat there for
the time being.

Most of the area will be too dry to support convection Sunday but
it`s looking more and more likely that there will be dryline severe
thunderstorms along or near the Kansas border Sunday afternoon and
evening.  The exact initiation point of the storms is still in
question but it certainly could be over the far southeastern
Colorado plains, probably somewhere east of a line from La Junta to
Kim.

Critical fire weather conditions will probably return to parts of
the area again on Monday.  It looks like a boundary will drop south
and decrease the fire threat across most of the plains but southern
parts of the plains, the southern Mountains, and the San Luis Valley
may well be under the gun again during the afternoon.  The dryline
will still be along or near the Kansas border Monday so severe
weather may again be an issue over that area. Also, upper level low
pressure will move through northern Colorado on Monday, possibly
triggering some rain and snow showers along the Continental Divide,
primarily from the Monarch Pass area northward.

The fire danger should decrease on Tuesday behind Monday`s upper
level low pressure system.  Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will be possible, primarily over northern and eastern parts of the
forecast area.  It currently looks like the best chance of showers
and storms will be over the central mountains and Pikes Peak Region
during the day Tuesday and then across the eastern mountains and
plains Tuesday night.

Forecast models indicate a wave from the Pacific will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms to much of the area on Wednesday. It`s
early yet but severe storms could be a possibility. Then, on
Thursday and Friday, it looks like the fire danger will escalate
once again as upper high pressure rebuilds over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period for all
of the sites. Winds will be light and variable throughout the
morning hours, but by the afternoon winds speeds will become gusty.
Cloud ceilings will lower this evening, but nothing that will change
flight categories.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
COZ220>230.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ220>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...SKELLY



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