Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171819

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1219 PM MDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Thu May 17 2018

Western U.S. upper low drifts eastward through the Great Basin
today, with deepening swly flow across CO. While combination of
gusty winds and very low humidity will lead to critical fire weather
conditions at many locations, Red Flag warnings are rather patchy
looking due to sporadic green-up of fuels across several southern
mountain and southeastern plains zones. Despite the lack of warnings
in some areas, outdoor burning or any other activities that could
accidentally start a wildfire should still be postponed. Dryline
again mixes toward the KS border this afternoon, and with deeper
instability and slightly better upper level forcing, chances for at
least an isolated storm near the CO/KS line look better than
yesterday. With increasing winds aloft, 0-6km shear values will
climb to near 50 kts by 00z, suggesting any storms that do form have
the potential to go severe, with large hail/strong winds possible.
Max temps today will rise another 1-3 degf versus yesterday as
atmosphere mixes deeply by afternoon. Tonight, convection shifts
eastward into KS by late evening, though convective outflows may
produce some gusty winds at times across the plains. Moisture
returning to the eastern plains will lead to rather mild overnight
low temps, will readings in the mountains drop to seasonably cool
levels as dry air persists over the high terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 435 AM MDT Thu May 17 2018

Friday...Latest model runs indicate that the upper low over the
Great Basin starts to weaken and eject to the east northeast
slightly quicker than previously thought. This will mean a couple of
things for the forecast area. First, there will be a fairly good
shot for some convection over the central mts and Palmer Divide Fri
aftn through the evening. Second, sfc winds tend to curl around to a
more east to southeast direction across the plains, drawing llvl
moisture back into the eastern CO plains. Though it is expected to
continue to be very warm on Fri, the strong downslope winds will be
lacking, and critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated.
Look for highs in the 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid
80s for the plains.

Saturday and Sunday...A cold front pushes south into eastern CO late
Fri night into early Sat morning, providing for a cooler and
potentially more wet weekend for the forecast area. Pcpn chances for
the eastern plains will increase as northeast to east sfc winds
remain in place both days. Expect max temps in the upper 60s to
lower 70s for the high valleys, and 60s to around 70F for the plains.

Monday through Wednesday...Another West Coast low pressure trough
moves into the Great Basin starting Mon, allowing warm southwest
flow aloft to develop over the Four Corners through mid-week. Being
the time of year that it is, models want to keep isolated to
scattered pops across the CWA both Mon and Tue, and do not see much
by way of arguing that. By Wed, however, the dry downslope flow
looks like it will win out, pushing much of the pcpn east towards
KS. Max temps will climb into the 70s each day for the high valleys.
Across the eastern plains, expect highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on
Mon, then 80s to around 90F for Tue and Wed. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM MDT Thu May 17 2018

VFR most of the area through 18z Friday. This includes the KCOS,
KPUB and KALS terminals. However, there will be some isolated
thunderstorms, some possibly severe, across the far eastern
plains late this afternoon and evening. The primary hazards
from most storms will be small hail, wind gusts to around 50 mph
and lightning. However, one or two storms could become severe
producing half dollar size hail, wind gusts over 60 mph and heavy
rain. The severe weather is most likely to occur along and east of
a line from Eads through Lamar and Springfield.


Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ223-226-227-



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