Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141645
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1045 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Latest HRRR suggests wind gusts along I-25 will stay generally
around 40 kts late this morning and into the afternoon, and KPUX
VAD wind profile shows only 30-40 kts of wind up through 11k feet
MSL. As a result, will cancel the High Wind Warning early for El
Paso/Pueblo Counties. Will still be windy, with gusts of 30-40 kts
until late afternoon. Winds will be stronger farther east, and
will keep warning in place through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...Strong winds on the plains to continue through this afternoon...

Currently...radar indicates light snowfall over the Palmer Divide
early this morning.  Radar trends and model guidance suggests this
area of snow will dissipate through 5 am.  North winds continue to
remain strong across the Eastern Plains with gusts 40 to 50 mph.
This is a brief lull in winds which are forecast to increase once
again by mid morning.  A few light snow showers remain over the
Central Mountains this morning.

Today...the upper level low over northern Kansas is forecast to move
into northeast Kansas by this afternoon.  North winds behind the
departing system will remain in place across Eastern Colorado.
Expect another surge in strong winds by mid morning with gusts
approaching 60 mph, especially for the far Eastern Plains near the
Kansas border through this afternoon.  Strong cross winds are
expected on east to west highways including U.S. Highway 50 through
this afternoon.  Those traveling in high profile or light weight
vehicles will be prone to toppling over.  Extreme caution is advised
for those traveling across the Colorado Plains through this
afternoon.  Other than the winds, expect dry conditions to prevail
across the region.  The exception will be the Central Mountains
where northwest flow will lead to light snowfall into this
afternoon.  Temperatures will warm into the 40s to mid 50s across
the area.

Tonight...the upper level low will continue its track east into
Iowa while high pressure builds over the Great Basin and shifts into
Utah late tonight.  As the upper level low departs, the gradient
across the Plains will weaken allowing winds to subside after
sunset.  North flow will transition westerly by morning.  Skies will
also clear out as the high pressure to the west begins to take hold
of southern Colorado.  Temperatures will fall into upper 20s to
lower 30s for lows. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Upper ridge translates over the area for Sunday which will bring
quiet weather to southern CO.  Winds will be much lighter than the
past few days, with return southeasterly flow across the plains by
afternoon.

Next upper trof will move into the western U.S. which will spread
increasing southwesterly flow across CO during the afternoon.
Temperatures will rebound back to near 80 across the plains with a
mix of 40s through 60s across the mountains/valleys.  Low humidity
values combined with the persistent dry fuels across most of the
area will lend this day to another critical fire weather day for the
San Luis valley, southeast mountains, and portions of the I-25
corridor. Given current set of high impact highlights already up,
will let day shift hoist a fire weather watches for Monday for these
areas.  Tuesday will be the bigger critical fire weather day as the
upper trof swings through with strong southwest flow transitioning
to westerly as the front crosses the mountains during the afternoon.
Could be looking at another high wind event depending on the timing
of this system.  Meanwhile, the central mountains will pick up a
quick round of snow with accumulations potentially in the 3-6 inch
range.

Wednesday will be cooler with lighter winds across the area as
another upper ridge translates in.  Next upper low will approach the
area by late week with GFS having trended much farther northward
with the track across UT into NW CO/Srn WY by 00z Sat.  EC and
Canadian still hold to a more southern track across southern CO
Friday night. GFS Ensemble members are really all over the map with
the mean suggesting a slower more open solution with a track farther
north. So needless to say there are still some significant
uncertainties, but models do still agree that this system has the
potential to be stronger than the one before. Thursday will see
increasing winds again ahead of this next system, particularly
across the mountains/valleys and southern I-25 corridor.  Low level
moisture advects northward into the area Thursday night with
rain/snow showers breaking out across the mountains and setting the
stage for a dry line across the eastern plains by afternoon and
evening. Could be looking at our first severe weather day with both
GFS and EC suggesting near 1000 j/kg of cape and deep layer shears
of 50-60 kts.  This far out though, details are always a bit
sketchy, but will introduce thunder into the grids for Friday with
emphasis across the far eastern counties.

Friday night and beyond still very much in the air as the southern
storm tracks suggest system will wrap up across the central plains
sending a round of rain/snow showers across the plains along with
strong north winds.  GFS would take all this activity farther north
with less precipitation for southern CO.  Have stuck with model
blends for now as too much uncertainty exists to lean the forecast
one direction or another. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.  North winds will
increase this afternoon with gusts near 25 kts possible.  Light
winds are expected tonight.

KCOS...low clouds and light snow will continue through 11z this
morning before dissipating.  Low clouds will then mix out to VFR
conditions through tonight.  Strong north winds will increase by mid
morning with gusts to near 40 kts through the afternoon.  Winds will
quickly subside after sunset as the gradient weakens across the area.

KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.  Strong north winds
will continue and increase by mid morning.  Winds will gust to near
35 to 40 kts through the mid afternoon hours before starting to
dissipate into the evening hours. Mozley


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ089-093-
094.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ095>099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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