Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
455 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...More Fire Concerns...

Although not nearly as extreme as yesterday, looks like another day
of at least marginal fire weather concerns.  Based on the latest
high resolution data, today`s onset of critical conditions will be a
bit delayed from yesterday and also staggered.  High resolution
model data indicates that critical fire weather conditions will
first emerge over the southern I-25 corridor areas during the late
morning hours.  This would include Las Animas and Huerfano Counties,
the I-25 corridor south of Pueblo and the adjacent lower slopes of
the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains. Then, around mid afternoon
or so, those conditions will advance northward to encompass much of
Pueblo, Crowley, Bent and Otero Counties.  While the rest of the
area will probably stay below strict Red Flag Warning levels today,
near critical fire weather conditions will still be possible at
times.  Consequently, outdoor burning or any other activities that
could accidentally start a wildfire should be postponed today.

For the Carson Midway Fire, winds have dropped off and Relative
Humidities (RHs) have recovered nicely overnight.  From available
surface observations, it looks like RHs are probably in the range of
65 to 75 percent on the fire.  That`s a big help.  And, winds on the
site at this time are probably less than 5 mph.  Another big help.
Based on our best high res data, it looks like RHs will stay
relatively high and winds relatively light at least through the
morning hours.  However, RHs will start to drop through the
afternoon hours, likely crossing into the teens and single digits
during the mid and late afternoon hours.  Winds on the site will
follow a similar trend, staying fairly light through the morning
hours and then gradually picking up from the south and then
southwest at about 10-20 mph during the mid to late afternoon

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...A quick shot of snow and blowing snow Sunday and Sunday night...

Sunday-Monday...The latest NAM and GFS runs in fairly good agreement
of a deep upper trough digging across the Great Basin and into the
Four Corners Region early Sunday morning, with the trough continuing
across the Rockies as a mid level low develops across southeast
Colorado late Sunday afternoon. The trough and mid level circulation
then continues into Western and Central Kansas through the day
Monday. The latest ECMWF remains a tad further south with the
development of the mid level low, which allows for a quick shot of
deformation band precipitation across the southeast mountains and
Southern I-25 Corridor late Sunday afternoon and early evening.

At any rate, all models continue to indicate a quick shot of
precipitation for the ContDvd, starting across the Southwest
Mountains Sunday morning, with moist southwest flow aloft. Best
snowfall across the ContDvd then transitions to the Central
Mountains later Sunday afternoon and evening, as flow aloft becomes
more northwest behind the passing system. With that said, have
issued a winter weather advisory for the Southwest Mountains from
12z Sun to 12Z Monday, and for the Central Mountains from 15Z Sunday
to 15Z Monday, with generally 4 to 8 inches expected, along with
locally higher amounts up to a foot possible. Will see showers
spreading across the high mountain valleys through the Eastern
Mountains through the day Sunday, with expected deformation banded
showers developing across the Northern Front Range into the Pikes
Peak region late Sunday afternoon and early evening. Main band of
showers associated with mid level trowel then spreads south and east
across the southeast plains Sunday night and into Western Kansas
through early Monday morning. Induced surface low across the
southeast plains will allow for strong north to northwest gradient
winds of 30 to 50 mph to develop across the I-25 Corridor late
Sunday afternoon, with the strongest winds spreading south and east
across all of the Plains into early Monday morning. System does not
have a lot of cold air associated with it, however with strong
diabatic cooling, could see snow mixing in across all of the Plains
Sunday night. Models remain consistent with the best snowfall
potential across the Pikes Peak Region, with 4 to 6 inches possible
across Teller County and along and just south of the Palmer Divide.
There will likely be a sharp gradient of snow accumulations across
the Pikes Peak Region and will likely need some winter weather
highlights across these areas, especially with the strong winds
producing difficult travel conditions in blowing snow Sunday night
across Northern El Paso County. However, with some uncertainty of
the track of the system, will let the next shifts get a look at a
few more model runs. Any concern is the potential for critical fire
weather conditions across southern portions of the Southeast Plains
Sunday afternoon, and again, with model uncertainties, will let
later shifts issue any fire weather highlights as needed.

Models continue to agree on a minor embedded wave digging across the
Rockies Monday afternoon, owning to a few showers possible across
the higher terrain. Temperatures on Monday will be generally below
seasonal averages, in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the lower
elevations and in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain.

Tuesday-Friday...Warmer and drier conditions expected into the
middle of next week, as upper level ridging builds into the Rockies
through Wednesday. Will again see chances of precipitation across
the ContDvd Thursday and Friday, as more Pacific energy moves across
the West Coast and into the Rockies.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 455 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Moisture will gradually increase along the Continental Divide
tonight as a Pacific weather system approaches the area.  This will
lead to lowering clouds, developing snow and deteriorating flight
conditions along the Divide late tonight through Sunday morning.
Elsewhere, VFR expected for the next 24 hours, including the KCOS,
KPUB and KALS terminals.


Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ228-231-232-235.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ225-229-230-233.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM MDT Monday for

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for



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