Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221552
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1052 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Lowered temperatures in area of rain south of a K2I0 to KMDH line,
closer to cooler NAMNest 1 hourly data. PoPs were geared hourly
and more toward the HRRR next few hours, followed by a CAM`s blend
next 24 hours. Will hold on a thunder mention, but it has made it
as far north at the KY/TN border. Cannot rule it out entirely.
Think there is a chance tomorrow too, and it will be added to the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Satellite loops suggest the Low`s center is over southeast
Nebraska, which is further north than prior nights runs of the
models suggested. The 00Z deterministic model runs have all
latched onto this further north placement, and as a result, track
it a little further north thru its evolution, placing it
along/near our southern border now. This adjustment to our
forecast will nudge storm total pcpn upwards about a quarter
inch, with max totals 2-2.25" now along our southern border. It
might also result in the inclusion of thunder in our forecast, as
now outlooked by SPC, however, it appears the blend is averaging
those chances out. We`ll have to collaborate the thunder issue,
but it`ll offer little beyond semantics to the overall forecast
impact weather, which is the pcpn/storm total rainfall.

High temps will be muted below climo norms some 5-10F today due to
clouds/rain. Lows, on the other hand, will settle near/slightly
above climo for same reason. Similar effects on Highs/Lows will
be repeated both Monday-Tuesday for similar reasons.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Confidence remains near average in the long term portion of the
forecast. Deterministic models and their ensemble means are not
terribly dissimilar in their respective synoptic depiction through
the period. However, the complicated, fast-changing nature of the
pattern lends to a higher potential for variation in timing and
placement of weather features and their corresponding impacts.

An active pattern is shaping up during the mid to late week period
as a series of upper level disturbances pivot southeast across the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys amidst a broad upper level trough over
the eastern U.S. Upper level energy forecast to enter the Pacific
Northwest today is progged to shift southeast into the Plains early
in the week and into the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. The 00Z
CMC and ECMWF have trended south with this feature, while the 00Z
GFS is more consistent with its track further north. As a result,
the CMC and ECMWF have trended dry on Wednesday, while the GFS keeps
the potential for precipitation. Given the uncertainty, our forecast
will maintain the small chance for showers on Wednesday.

Thursday looks dry at this point, but the approach and passage of a
sharp upper level trough will bring yet another chance for showers
Thursday night and Friday. The faster GFS and CMC favor Thursday
night, while the slower ECMWF favors Friday. Given the uncertainty,
it seems prudent to maintain a small chance both Thursday night and
Friday until models come into better agreement. Models continue to
show no real focus for instability, so thunder is not expected.
Precipitation amounts are also on the light side, so no substantial
impacts are anticipated at this time.

Relatively uniform temperatures are forecast through the period.
Highs should average through the 60s with lows generally in the 40s.
On the bright side, next weekend is looking dry at this point with
highs tentatively forecast to approach 70 degrees by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Slow but steady lowering of VFR cigs can be expected thru the
forecast period, for all terminals, as the Low pressure storm
system nears from the west, and rains overspread the region.
Expect MVFR cigs/vsbys to develop during the afternoon hours first
at KCGI/KPAH, with IFR conditions potentially developing
thereafter, during the overnight hours. KEVV/KOWB will eventually
follow with restricted cigs/vsbys, but it may take until the
latter part of the planning period to see flight restricted
conditions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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