Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 242335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
635 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Upper low early this afternoon was over scntrl KY with showers
continuing to rotate around the system, including from southwest
IN into west KY. Otherwise considerable clouds with temperatures
near to more than 10 degrees below normal. The system will
continue to move away tonight. Will decrease PoPs through this
evening over east sections, dry weather overnight through
Wednesday morning. Our attention then turns to a system currently
over northern Plains. This shortwave will transition to a compact
closed low that should end up over NW Arkansas by Wednesday
evening. Models spread showers over the southwest 1/2 of the CWFA
Wednesday afternoon. It should remain dry over the Evansville
Tri-State area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The aforementioned system will continue to move southeast
Wednesday night, with shower chances continuing over southern and
west sections of the CWFA. There may be some thunder along the
MO/AR, and KY/TN border areas. Not expecting water issues given
modest QPF with this system. Small shower chances continue
Thursday night and Friday as the next upper system follows
fairly quickly, taking a fairly similar track to the previous
upper level energy. After this system passes by, looks like a dry
and warmer weekend and Monday of next week as mid level ridging
builds overhead, ahead of a developing trof over the west U.S. Our
weather could become unsettled after Monday. But confidence too
low to speculate on the details at this time. After favoring the
GFS Wednesday through Friday, we went with a consensus blend for
the rest of the forecast.


Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

MVFR ceilings and some patchy light rain continue across the
Evansville Tri State. The rain should come to an end by 02Z and
the MVFR ceilings should lift or scatter to VFR by midnight.
There is a rather strong signal for re-development of IFR or LIFR
ceilings shortly after the current clouds clear out. This lower
deck will expand westward overnight, but should not reach KCGI or
KPAH. Went on the pessimistic side of guidance overnight into
Wednesday morning in the east. These low ceilings will slowly
improve and may eventually reach VFR levels by the end of the

With north winds subsiding and skies clearing overnight at KCGI
and KPAH, some MVFR fog development will be possible there.

Another storm system will spread showers eastward across southeast
Missouri in the afternoon. It appears that VFR conditions will
hold despite the light rain potential at KPAH and KCGI after 21Z.




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