535
FXUS63 KPAH 101136
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances (10-25%) of thunderstorms are forecast today
  into Friday, with the relatively greater storm coverage across
  western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

- Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend into next week, with
  a roughly 40-60% each day. The greatest coverage will occur
  during the heat of the afternoon hours.

- Typical summertime heat and humidity is forecast through next week,
  though heat index values will climb to around 100 degrees
  Friday and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Dense fog has enveloped much of southeast MO, southern IL, and
western KY, so a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 9 AM
CDT. The fog will be thickest near large bodies of water, so
there will be rapid changes in visibility as well.

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance is below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Weak surface high pressure will keep forcing for thunderstorm
development to a minimum today and Friday, with any storm
initiation occurring along remnant outflows or moisture
gradients. This will keep PoPs in the schc range (sub-25%)
through the rest of the work week. Greatest coverage of storms
today looks again to be across west KY and southwest IN. On
Friday, storms may be more plentiful over southeast MO. Lesser
storm coverage will allow for warmer temperatures, reaching
88-92F today and 90-94F on Friday. Heat index values Friday will
top out around 100F.

A transition to a more unsettled pattern will begin Saturday as
frontal boundary moves into the region from the NW and stalls.
This will result in chc to likely PoPs this weekend (40-60%)
with the greatest coverage during the heat of the afternoon.
High temperatures Saturday will again reach the lower 90s in
most spots with heat index values around 100F. Sunday will be a
bit cooler, only in the upper 80s due to increasing cloud
coverage. Main thunderstorm risks this weekend will be from
localized downburst winds and spotty flash flooding concerns
from heavy downpours.

Unsettled weather looks to continue into most of next week as an
active W-NW H5 flow pattern arrives. This will bring a series of
disturbances through the region. The details remain murky, so
as it stands there is a daily chance of thunderstorms (40-60%),
again with the greatest coverage in the afternoon hours.
Depending on the specifics in the mesoscale, some periods of
possible organized convection or more widespread flooding cannot
be ruled out. Stay tuned for updates. Temperatures will be near
to slightly below normal due to cloud and precipitation
coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Widespread fog, particularly dense at CGI, PAH, and OWB, will
mix away to VFR conditions by 14z. Afterward, diurnal CU will
develop with bases around 4-5kft through this afternoon before
diminishing by 24z. Skies will be mainly clear tonight, with the
potential for more fog development. However, confidence was too
low to include with this TAF package. Winds will be light and
variable.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ085>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ087-111-
     112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS