Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
526 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Issued at 521 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Dry surface high pressure has effectively scoured out the low-
level moisture and any chance of convection over most of the
region. There is some scattered convection just to the west and
southwest of Ripley and Carter counties, and satellite does not
show any enhanced cu development out there. Figure this area will
remain dry as well.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the area dry
Thursday and Thursday night, before a weak mid/upper-level trough
moves into the region early Friday. The 12Z GFS is the most
aggressive in bringing convection back to far western portions of
southeast Missouri by daybreak Friday, while better resolved
guidance keeps the area dry. We will have very slight chance
PoPs to the west of Van Buren and Doniphan.

South winds will return Friday and that means mid and upper 60
dewpoints will advect across much of the region. This along with
the weak upper system in the vicinity should allow for some
isolated to scattered convection over southeast Missouri and
possibly portions of southern Illinois and west Kentucky on
Friday. Weak wind fields will prevent any storm organization, so
individual storms will be pulsy and relatively short-lived. Given
the presence of the upper system, this activity may not be purely
diurnal, so will spread some small PoPs across the entire area
Friday night.

High temperatures will remain well above normal through the
period. Lows tonight will mainly be in the lower 60s, and a few
local areas may drop into the upper 50s, which is close to normal.
Lows will trend warmer through Friday night when most areas only
drop into the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty this holiday weekend
into next week as to the eventual track and effects of any tropical
system that manages to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. Bottom line is that within our forecast period, the low
will likely stay well off to our south and southeast. A northern
stream mid level trof will also work its way into the MS Valley
region over the weekend and become nearly stable within a
mid level blocking pattern.

What this means essentially for us in the quad state region is an
extended warm, moist and somewhat unsettled weather regime right
through the weekend and through the rest of the long term period.
Thinking is that we will be looking at scattered, mainly diurnal,
thunderstorm chances each afternoon underneath the mid level
trough. Weak winds aloft should preclude much of an organized
threat, with the focus mainly on low level outflow boundary
interactions. Storms should tend to be rather short-lived as
updrafts are quickly cut off due to heavy precip loading. Still,
there will be a gusty wind, heavy downpour and deadly lightning
threat from time to time for those with outdoor plans throughout
the upcoming holiday weekend. Will definitely need to keep an eye
to the sky.


Issued at 521 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Today`s snapshot will be similarly repeated tmrw, with basic
synoptic features not moving High pressure to our east
allowing some rimfire cu bases during the heat of the day, but
overall subsidence is sufficient to preclude showers. Will have
some high based cu scattered for mainly KCGI-KPAH, less so (Few)
at KEVV-KOWB, about 1K FT AGL higher there where pm dew points
actually dip into the upper 50s. Patchy fog is possible again late
tonight as well, but will keep it MVFR for this issuance.



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