Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 212236
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
536 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Very weak trof of low pressure at the surface and aloft will work
very slowly east southeast across the MS and OH River Valleys
tonight and Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
mostly confined to areas east of the trof (wrn KY/se IL/sw IN)
this afternoon/evening and possibly again Tuesday, though overall
moisture may limit the activity to more isolated in nature by
Tuesday. Very weak flow aloft will limit much of an organized
severe risk this afternoon and Tue, but a few strong storms with
gusty winds, dime sized hail and torrential downpours can be
expected.

Thereafter, the surface trof should be pushed farther off to the
southeast Tuesday night through Wed/Wed night as a mid/upper level
high pressure system builds east toward the MS River Valley. Will
lead to a continuation of the unseasonably warm weather right
into mid week, though humidity levels should come down a bit as
drier air works its way in from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Models are in decent agreement through 00z Saturday. Prior to that
time an upper level ridge is centered over the area and will keep us
dry and very warm.

By late Friday the ridge begins to break down as the system over the
Gulf strengthens. In the upper levels a trough develops along the
Mississippi River down to the system in the Gulf. Again, all the
models agree on that, but after this time the models diverge.

By 12z Sunday the surface system along the Gulf is over northern
Florida in the GFS, over Mississippi in the ECMWF, and over the
northern Gulf just south of New Orleans in the Canadian. This
location difference is pretty big when it comes to the moisture
distribution from this system. Potential for locally heavy rain is
there with the solutions farther west, while the GFS would suggest
heavier rain going up the east coast.

Ensemble tables not showing a large increase in moisture from normal
at this time, so will hold off the heavy rain potential for now.
Above normal temperatures/heights will continue through the period.
Essentially scattered showers and thunderstorms through the holiday
weekend, but does not look like a washout at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

With pm convection diminishing, should see VFR conditions thereafter.
Cold front does approach/make passage late tonight-early tmrw.
Time/height cross sections show the wind shift and scattered to
potentially broken bases in the low VFR range for the diurnal/pm
hours. These could include showers/storms but for now, will stick
to the clouds/leave the pops for later mention, if necessary.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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