Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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589
FXUS63 KPAH 182010
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Gusty winds will continue through this evening as a compact storm
system moves east across Illinois. Wind gusts to around 40 mph
have been observed both ahead of and behind the cold front this
afternoon. Therefore, the Wind Advisory will be expanded into
more of west Kentucky, southern Illinois, and se Missouri. The
special weather statement for the rest of the area will be
reissued.

A cold front trailing south from the low pressure center will move
east of our region by evening. Very little low cloudiness formed
along the front, allowing temps to reach 80 in much of se Missouri
and sw Illinois. The warmer and more unstable air has resulted in
a thin line of cumulus clouds and light showers along the front.
Therefore, the small chance of precip in the forecast for sw
Indiana and Pennyrile region of west KY will be maintained.

Much cooler and drier air will arrive overnight. Temps by morning
will be about 40 degrees lower than today`s highs. Winds will
diminish tonight, but there will still be plenty of wind to ward
off any frost potential. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 50s.
Diurnal cumulus clouds should be widespread during the midday
hours, but drier subsident air with the approaching high is
expected to reduce cloud coverage later in the afternoon.

The potential for frost still appears fairly high for Thursday
night. One caveat is the strength of the northeast winds just off
the deck. The models are indicating 15 to 20 kt of wind only a few
hundred feet above ground at 12z Friday. Surface winds are not
forecast to completely decouple. In fact, 2 meter winds from the
nam stay at or above 5 knots all night at kpah. Therefore, frost
coverage may be more limited than the most recent frost yesterday
morning. Also, surface temps are forecast to stay at or above
freezing.

Friday will be mainly sunny with light winds and moderating temps
as the surface high passes to our north.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Saturday should remain dry and unseasonably cool.  Models show a low
pressure system sliding from Texas along the Gulf Coast states
Sunday into Monday.  This will provide a chance of showers across
most of our region, especially our southern half of counties Sunday
into Monday. GFS is more progressive in the movement of the low, and
takes shower chances our of our area by Monday evening.  The slower
ECMWF lingers showers into Monday night and Tuesday, though amounts
are very light.  For now went with a dry forecast Monday night.  By
Tuesday though, GFS indicates increasing moisture ahead of an upper
level trough.  ECMWF is slower with this feature due to the slower
surface/upper level low to our southeast, but ensembles indicate
some shower chances possible east of the Mississippi River Tuesday,
and included some slight to low chance pops.  Confidence in the
overall timing of precipitation chances Tuesday into Wednesday is
low, but the QPF overall is very light and there should be no
significant impacts.  Hopefully we can fine tune the chances in the
next couple of days.

Temperatures should remain a little below normal through the
extended with persistent north to northeast flow across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Very gusty winds will veer from southwest to northwest as a cold
front passes this afternoon. Gusts from 30 to 40 mph will continue
until diurnal mixing weakens after sunset. Some vfr cigs and
isolated showers will accompany the front as it crosses the
kevv/kowb area late today, otherwise expect mainly clear skies.

A large area of post-frontal low clouds will attempt to make its
way southeast tonight. The latest model guidance holds off this
cloudiness until at least daybreak. Once the cloudiness arrives,
mvfr cigs are currently forecast.

&&


.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ087-111.

IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ004-005-007-010-
     011-013>016-018>021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY



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