Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 242111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service LAS VEGAS NV
211 PM MST Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect well above normal daytime temperatures and dry
conditions through midweek. A chance of high based showers or
thunderstorms is anticipated late in the week, mainly over the
eastern counties with the best chance occurring on Friday.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure will build over the region through
through the end of the week proving mainly dry conditions along
with temperatures generally 10-15 degrees above normal.

A weak disturbance moving west across northern Mexico will help
bring an increase in moisture to mainly the eastern half of
Arizona. Some increased instability to lead to a few more cumulus
clouds on Thursday along with just a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms over the highest terrain. Additional
moisture and instability will be seen Friday over the eastern
third of the state leading to a better chance of seeing mainly
high based thunderstorms.

A stronger low will move into the Great Basin this weekend, with
increased southwest winds and a slight chance of high based
convection mainly over eastern AZ, however much of the moisture
will be pushed off to the east. Winds could reach near advisory
levels each afternoon over the weekend and that will be monitored
over the coming days. This system will also bring a bit of a cool
down, but temperatures will still remain above normal.

There are some indications of a cooler system moving into the
region early to mid next week, but confidence in this solution is
low right now.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions across
northern Arizona for the next 24 hours under occasional mid and
high-level clouds. Southwest winds after 18z at 5-15 kts becoming
light and variable after 02z. A weak push of northerly winds may
impact far northern Arizona overnight. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions continue through Wednesday
with typical spring afternoon breezes.

Thursday through Saturday...Warmer than normal daytime temperatures
will persist through the period. Thursday through Saturday there
will be chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms across
portions of eastern Arizona.






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