


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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855 FXUS64 KHUN 182158 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 458 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 The low pressure system that has moved from the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley has continued to move northeastward, increasing southerly flow into the Tennessee Valley. Storms this afternoon should begin to gradually weaken by the late evening and fully dissipate by midnight. However, lingering cloud cover from this system should dissuade fog formation overnight. Low temperatures should drop into the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1036 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 As an upper level ridge and subsequent sfc high continue to be stagnant over the southeast and the aforementioned sfc low continues northeastward, heat concerns begin to ramp up through the short term period. Heat indices increase from 98-102 degrees on Saturday into the 101-109 range by Monday afternoon. Heat products will likely be considered by Sunday in future forecast updates. High temperatures during this time are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s. If trends continue and temperatures continue to rise, an Extreme Heat product may be considered. Daily thunderstorm chances (30-50%) continue through the short term period in response to diurnal heating. A few stronger storms that form will be capable of gusty winds up to 40-50 mph and frequent lightning in addition to heavy rainfall. The primary concern through the weekend will continue to be flooding as PWATs remain in the 2-2.2" range, which is at or above the 90th percentile per BMX sounding climatology. The HREF once again indicates localized rainfall totals up to 3" in some locations, however, most areas should see up to 0.1-0.5" if rainfall occurs. Will have to monitor low lying areas and areas of poor drainage for ponding of water. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 A broad area of high pressure will gradually begin to become established over the Deep South early next week. Ample moisture underneath this ridge will result in medium chances for showers/storms Monday and Tuesday, but PoPs are trending a little lower each day as the ridge amplifies by midweek. Confidence is increasing in a building heatwave that will occur thanks to the warm air mass underneath this ridge and the deep tropical moisture in place. A gradual warming trend will take place through the week, with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s returning by Tuesday through Thursday, with peak heat index values near or above 105 degrees becoming more probable during this timeframe. Thus, additional Heat Advisories may be needed mid to late next week due to the building heat wave. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 457 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Any remaining scattered SHRA or TSRA should dissipate by 02Z, with VFR conditions lasting until about 08-09Z. Then, low clouds are forecast to develop with ceilings below 010agl (IFR). These will slowly lift above 010agl (MVFR) through 14Z, then above 030agl (VFR) by 18Z. Scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA are forecast after 18Z, so have included VCTS at both KMSL and KHSV for the duration of the period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 457 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures: The Climate Prediction Center has included all of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures for July 26th through August 1st. Temperatures reaching or exceeding the mid to upper 90s with heat indices between 100-105 degrees F are possible during this period. More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...17 CLIMATE...26