Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 301043
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
643 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry and comfortable weather today and
Saturday. Showers and storms return on Sunday with the next cold
front. Unsettled weather at times possible early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 641 AM Friday...

Scattered showers are continuing across northern WV as a cold
front continues to slowly push southward through the area this
morning. In addition, an MCS that brought heavy rain to much of
eastern KY overnight is continuing to move further southward
towards eastern TN, gradually weakening as it does so. Thus,
have made some adjustments to PoPs across the area this morning
based on latest radar trends, but the remainder of the forecast
is on track.

As of 308 AM Friday...

The majority of convection at this point has moved out of the area
as the latest radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms moving southeastward across eastern KY. This
activity will still result in some light rain showers early this
morning across the southern coalfields and southwest VA, but
any heavier precipitation should mainly stay outside of our
forecast area. In addition, a separate area of scattered showers
associated with a cold front have developed across our northern
counties as the boundary slowly pushes southward. Recent
surface analysis shows that this boundary is associated with a
surface low across that is centered off the New England coast
and the boundary extends to the WSW of this feature towards the
upper Ohio Valley. This frontal boundary will continue to push
southward across the area towards daybreak as surface high
pressure in the Upper Midwest gradually builds into the Great
Lakes today. By mid morning, the frontal boundary should be
completely south of the forecast area and lingering post-
frontal stratus and/or fog should gradually dissipate as the
morning progresses.

With surface high pressure in control today, expecting mainly sunny
skies with temperatures in the low to mid 80s across the lowlands
and mid 60s to 70s in the higher elevations. Humidity levels should
also be fairly comfortable as drier air continues to filter into the
region with dewpoint values lowering from north to south in the
wake of the departing cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Friday...

High pressure continues to remain over the area on Saturday
leading to most of Saturday remaining dry. Temperatures are
expected to be cooler, slightly below normal, in the upper 70s
to lower 80s for the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s for the higher
elevations. With dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s
range, Saturday is expected to be a nice day.

By Saturday evening, precipitation chances will begin to
increase ahead of a cold front approaching the area and a
shortwave moving in at the upper levels for the second half of
the weekend. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should
be confined to the southern half of the area where more
moisture is expected to be present, however a few isolated
showers or storms may be possible along the north.
Precipitation chances will move out Sunday evening giving way to
a drier Sunday night as the front passes through the area and
moves off to the southeast.

Sunday is expected to be slightly warmer than Saturday, however
temperatures will still be just below normal in the low to mid
80s for the lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s along the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Much of Monday is expected to be dry in the wake of the
aforementioned cold front with the possibility for a few
isolated showers or storms along the very south/southeastern
edge of the area. Upper level troughing is then expected to
deepen over the area and hang around for the week with upper
ridging building in along the western CONUS. At the surface,
models show high pressure to the northwest of the area to start
the week with moisture lingering along the eastern portion of
the area. This will lead to a fairly consistent pattern for much
of the week with the lowlands remaining mostly dry through the
period with a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm and
better chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms to occur
along the higher elevations where models show more moisture to
be available.

A gradual warming trend is expected through the long term
period, warming up to around or just above normal by the end of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 641 AM Friday...

A cold front is pushing southward across the middle Ohio Valley
at this time and should move south of the forecast area by later
morning. This feature will help maintain areas of low
stratocumulus this morning with most of the terminals beginning
the TAF period with MVFR/IFR ceilings. There have also been
scattered showers that have developed as this boundary pushes
through, but this activity should be light enough to prevent any
notable visibility restrictions.

After the cold front pushes south of the area by late morning,
drier air will filter in and skies will clear into the afternoon
hours as high pressure settles in. Thus, VFR conditions will
prevail across the region this afternoon and evening. In
addition, winds this afternoon are expected to be out of the
NNW around 5-10 kts, but some gusts of 15-20 kts will be
possible across the higher terrain in the mountains.

Light to calm winds tonight could support patchy fog and if fog
is able to develop, an extended period of IFR/LIFR conditions
could occur.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of when stratocu deck will lift this
morning could vary slightly from TAFs. Coverage, timing, and
duration of valley fog tonight could vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
Patchy IFR fog possible Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RG/CG
NEAR TERM...RG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RG


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