Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 272250
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
550 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather has returned to SW KS, with a rapid warming trend
  expected through Friday.

- Strong south to southwest winds Thursday afternoon, with an
  elevated risk of wildfire spread.

- A beautiful Easter weekend is expected, with unseasonably warm
  temperatures in the lower 80s Easter afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A weak shortwave was passing south of SW KS at midday, spreading
midlevel clouds into the region, with KDDC radar indicating a few
sprinkles near the Oklahoma border. Any measurable precipitation
with this shortwave will remain southeast of SW KS, across
Oklahoma and Texas through this afternoon. Mid level
temperatures at 500 mb are quite cold, near -27C, resulting in
weak instability Wednesday afternoon, once the midlevel clouds
scatter out, and late March insolation increases. As such, a few
cumulus buildups and sprinkles may develop before sunset, with
an isolated rain shower possible. The probability of measurable
rain at any one location is < 15%, and too low to mention in the
forecast. As clouds clear out this afternoon, light S/SW winds
will warm temperatures into the lower 50s, about 10-12 degrees
below late March normals.

Tonight will not be as cold as the last two nights, but another
light freeze is expected Thursday morning. Much warmer 850 mb
temperatures and light SWly downslope will hold most locations
in the upper 20s sunrise Thursday.

Rapid, dramatic warming is expected Thursday, with strong
height and thickness rises, and 850 mb temperatures leaping
about 10C over Wednesday. Modest lee troughing over eastern
Colorado will stir up the Kansas wind machine, with S/SWly winds
averaging 20-30 mph. In a warm mixed boundary layer, winds
aloft support wind gusts near 35 mph Thursday afternoon. Expect
temperatures 4 pm Thursday to be in the 68-72 range.

A low level jet is forecast Thursday night/early Friday, as the
lower atmosphere continues to warm. A much milder Friday morning
will result, with many locations holding in the 40s through
sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

High confidence that SW KS will remain dry Friday through Easter
Sunday. The next opportunity for rain is scheduled for Monday
and Tuesday, early next week, but rainfall coverage and amounts
will be limited.

Further strong warming is expected Friday, as surface winds take
on more of a westerly downslope component, with prefrontal
compression ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The timing
of the weak cold front appears slow enough, to allow
temperatures to soar across central and especially southern
zones adjacent to Oklahoma. Afternoon temperatures in the lower
80s are expected south of US 50, along the lines where EPS
probability of temperatures greater than 80 is highest. The weak
dry cold front will sag south through Saturday morning, with
light N/NE winds trimming temperatures several degrees for
Saturday. Still, a splendid spring Saturday will be enjoyed,
with afternoon temperatures ranging from 60 north to 70 south.

Another strong surge of warming is anticipated Easter Sunday, as
a large longwave trough is established from the northern Rockies
to southern California. Models show strong SWly flow through the
atmosphere, with strongly positive/warm 850 mb temperature
anomalies. Temperatures are expected to soar into the 80s Easter
Sunday afternoon, with EPS probability of temperatures greater
than 80 already at 70%. Southwest winds will be strong, gusting
to near 40 mph, for a windy warm Easter.

Dry cold front associated with the approaching positively tilted
longwave trough is shown to pass through Monday morning, with a
north wind shift significantly reducing temperatures back close
to early April normals, in the 60s. In the cooler postfrontal
environment, late Monday through early Tuesday, there will be a
window of opportunity for rainfall as the parent longwave
trough drags across the plains. It is hard to get excited for
meaningful rainfall, as cool season positively tilted troughs
strongly deflect Gulf of Mexico moisture eastward, away from SW
KS. With this caveat noted, global models do suggest a few rain
showers in the region, and 12z GEFS/EPS (GFS/ECMWF ensemble
members) still suggest up to a 60% probability of measurable
rainfall during this time. However, positively tilted troughs do
not generate appreciable precipitation in SW KS, and this will
not be the beneficial rain we are looking for. NBM pops are
necessarily very low, and this is the best forecast for now.
Following the trough`s passage, several more days of dry weather
are expected midweek next week. Significantly cooler air is
expected behind the trough passage on Tuesday, with afternoon
temperatures reduced to the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds will increase after 15Z with sustained winds at 15-25 kts
and gusts around 30 kts at times through 00Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro


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