555
FXUS63 KDDC 130731
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
231 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slow moving storm system will keep isolated to scattered
  rain showers mainly in our eastern zones today.

- Next opportunity for rain will come mid week (Wednesday and
  Thursday)

- A few marginal severe storms are possible on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

06Z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a large, slow
moving 5640 dm closed low centered just north of Dodge City
with the main forcing in central Kansas where the majority of
the rain showers are. Also a narrow band of rain showers near
the I-70 corridor has developed in the vicinity of the low. At
the surface a 1006 mb low is located in central Kansas and a
weak high is centered in south central Colorado.

Today the main focus will be the weak forcing on the backside of
the low combining with some breaks in the clouds to produce some
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms mainly along and
east of highway 283 and the greatest chances along and east of
highway 281. Short term models have been trending with the
isolated nature from the more widespread nature in previous runs
so POPs have been lowered to the 20-30% range today. West of 283
we should see some more peaks of sun and highs in the mid 70s.
Temperatures in our eastern zones will depend on how socked in
the clouds stay and how much rain falls but with peaks of sun
trending we should see highs reach into the lower 70s. Winds
will also increase through the day as the pressure gradient
tightens with the departing surface low in eastern Kansas and
the stationary high in Colorado. Winds will be in the 15-25 mph
range with gusts over 30 mph possible.

Tonight as the upper low departs farther east we should see the
last bits of clouds clear in our eastern zones and with a high
pressure centered in eastern Colorado we will have light winds.
This should allow lows to fall into the 40s.

Tuesday with an upper level ridge in the central plains and
southwest winds warming the 850 mb levels to 15-24 (C) we should
see a good rebound in highs as we will reach into the lower to
mid 80s. As a shortwave moves in from the Rockies late in the
day which will produce a surface low and a weak frontal boundary
we could have enough lift to produce some isolated storms
mainly north of highway 50 and west of highway 83. Moisture will
be limited as dew points will be in the lower 40s so kept POPs
between 10-20% in these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will bring more storm
chances as an upper level trough moving into Nebraska will drag
in a cold front which should reach the I-70 corridor by 12Z
Wednesday. POPs will be around 40% in these areas with 30-50%
chance of receiving up to 0.1 inch.

Wednesday afternoon into the evening as the cold front moves
through western Kansas and the upper level forcing comes in from
the northwest we should see more thunderstorms break out across
the area and becoming more numerous in the evening. There will
be enough instability (1000 J/kg CAPE) and shear (0-6 km ~35
kts) that a few storms could have a hail and wind threat. EPS
and GEFS probabilities of >500 CAPE and > 40 kt shear are in the
10% range mainly south and east of Dodge City so the severe
threat would be in these areas and the rest of the CWA will have
rain and general thunderstorms. QPF probabilities of 0.25 inch
or more are highest in these zones too at 50-60% and as you go
north and west the probabilities reduce to around 20%.

Thursday into Friday with the colder air moving in and the
forcing forecast to be farther south the POPs have been reduced
to mainly 10-20% near the Oklahoma border.

The weekend is trending dry as ensemble upper air forecast are
showing a weak ridge in the central plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Radar has some widely scattered rain showers near HYS and DDC.
Overall cloud ceilings should be VFR for GCK and LBL and periods
of MVFR to IFR for DDC and HYS between 09-15Z. Spotty rain
showers will be around DDC and HYS through 00Z. Winds will pick
up after 14Z to 10-20 kt sustained and gusts to 30 kts are
possible through 00Z. Winds should die down after 00Z and skies
will clear in DDC and HYS during this time too.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro