Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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740 FXUS63 KDDC 090114 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 814 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Saturday. - The next opportunity for needed rainfall is expected on Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Surface analysis at 8 pm showed a very dry boundary layer in place across SW KS, with dewpoints in the 20s. Light N/NE winds prevailed, in response to weak low pressure over the Texas panhandle. Earlier midlevel wave clouds have dissipated, but additional midlevel clouds will increase overnight through Thursday morning. Despite the additional clouds, the very dry air will assist radiational cooling, with all locations well down into the 40s sunrise Thursday. A mix of mid/high clouds and sunshine is expected Thursday, with a gentle northerly pressure gradient supporting less wind than Wednesday, averaging north at 10-20 mph. Models show little if any thermal changes tomorrow, so expect Thursday`s temperatures to mirror those observed Wednesday, mainly in the 70s. No changes needed to the forecast or grids this evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Dry conditions are expected throughout the short term period. Mid to upper level clouds will develop across the southern half of the CWA after midnight and may stick around throughout the morning hours tomorrow. Skies then become mostly clear by tomorrow night. Winds will generally be from a northerly direction throughout the short term forecast. As for temperatures, low tonight will dip into the 40s tonight and range from the upper 60s west to upper 70s east for highs tomorrow. Lows tomorrow night will dip back into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Dry conditions continue through Saturday afternoon as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains. This will lead to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. An upper level low will spin above the four corners region during this time frame then trek closer to the area this weekend into the first part of next week. As this low gets closer, weak disturbances may swing into the area bringing a chance of precipitation to western Kansas. Otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. Temperatures throughout the long term will generally be in the 70s Friday with upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday. 80s return as highs as we head into the first part of next week. Lows will start out in the 40s with some 50s across the eastern half of the CWA this weekend into the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 435 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR continuing, and variable amounts of mid and high clouds. Winds will be relatively light, generally with a northerly component. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Turner SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42 LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Turner