516
FXUS63 KDDC 111836
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
136 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  through Sunday.

- Strong to marginally severe t-storms are expected Sunday
  afternoon and evening.

- There are additional chances for showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday and Wednesday night. A few of these storms may
  contain small to marginally severe hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An upper low over the Desert Southwest will approach the high
plains this evening and overnight, with mid level warm
advection developing. One batch of forcing will arrive this
evening, with rain developing across west central and far
southwest Kansas. Rain showers will then spread eastward during
the late evening. Another round of showers will move east out of
Colorado late tonight and persist into early Sunday.

A break in precipitation should occur mid to late morning
Sunday. However, by mid-day, the upper low will approach
Kansas, with -18C 500mb cold pool entering far southwest
Kansas by noon. Low level moisture will increase ahead of this
system, with dewpoints in the 50s by mid day. Some breaks in the
cloud will allow for temperatures to rise to the convective
temperature in the upper 60s to lower 70s, resulting 1000-1500
g/kg surface based CAPE, especially from Garden City
southwestward to Liberal and Johnson. Additionally, the exit
region of a 60-80 kt upper level jet will be situated across
southwest Kansas. Given the presence of the upper low, the
capping inversion will be very weak so that t-storm initiation
is likely by mid day to early afternoon. These storms will
initially be isolated to scattered so that hail from nickel to
quarter size can`t be ruled out. Wouldn`t be surprised if a weak
landspout tornado or two occurred given the presence of the
upper low, with relatively cold temperatures at mid levels.
During the late afternoon these storms will congeal into lines
of storms with locally heavy rain; but by this point the storms
will probably not be strong or severe. However, given the
convective nature of the precipitation, rain totals will be
highly variable, with some locations receiving over an inch,
and other locations getting far less. Aside from areas of
localized convection, the storm total rain through Sunday night
of an inch across much of southwest Kansas may be overdone.

Probabilistically, the CMCE, ECMWF and GEFS ensemble means
indicate 60-80% chances of .5" or more through Sunday night
across central and southwest Kansas and 10-30% chances of 1" or
greater. The overall probabilities are slightly higher across
central Kansas at locations such as Hays, Stafford and Pratt.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The aforementioned upper low will be east of here on Monday.
However, with continued cold temperatures at 500mb, along with
daytime heating and marginal moisture, a few showers are still
possible, especially over central Kansas. By Tuesday, some air
mass recovery is possible across the western high plains as
winds become southeasterly in response to mid level westerly
flow across the Rockies. Thus, there is a small chance of
thunderstorms for places such as Syracuse, Johnson and Lakin
Tuesday night. A weak upper level disturbance will approach the
central high plains Wednesday. There is a better chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday evening and night as this system passes.
The best chance of locally heavy rains may be across central
Kansas Wednesday night since this system is an open wave as
opposed to a closed low. This is supported by the ensemble means
that indicate 30-50% chances of .5" or greater across central
Kansas Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, with lesser
chances farther west. How far west the heavier rains occur
depends on the placement of the low level instability. But given
the time of year and lack of a closed off upper level low, this
is more likely across central Kansas. A few of the storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening could be marginally severe given
moderate surface based CAPE and modest vertical shear.

The upper level flow will become more zonal by Thursday and
Friday as the weak disturbance passes to the east of our area.
This will allow for warming, with highs rising into the lower
80s Thursday and near 90 for Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Clouds will thicken and gradually lower from VFR to MVFR between
00 and 12Z as an upper level disturbance approaches the high
plains. Showers are possible by 00z at KLBL and KGCK and 03-06z
at KDDC/KHYS. After 12z, scattered showers will gradually end,
but with daytime heating after 18z additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected at the TAF sites as the upper low and
associated cold pool arrive over southwest Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch