Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 182347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
747 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

...A Quiet, Cloudy Night...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The cold front that moved through the
forecast area last night, is trying to move north again, but looks
like it will stall along or just south of M-55 by 12z/Wed. Moisture
will increase along the front tonight, so that rain showers will
threaten early Wednesday morning, but generally, the rain should
hold off until later.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Early arrival of the rain. Both the GFS
and ECWMF as well as the SREF, and the NAM to a certain extent, hold
of the rain showers until after 12z, but the ECMWF does push the
rain close enough, that rain could be early. The HiResW-NMM model
has rain all over early, while the NAM12 has some rain breaking out
along M-55 around 03z/Wed and continues to fire something through
12z/Wed. These two may be the outliers, but shouldn`t be discounted
at this point. However, feel confident enough that we will leave the
forecast dry through the night.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorms chances Wednesday night
through Thursday...some may be severe second half of Thursday.

A developing low pressure system over the northern Plains will bring
moisture and synoptic support for rain showers beginning Wednesday
and more so Thursday as it traverses through the northern Great Lakes
region. Return flow (PWATS of near 2.00 inches) begin over northern
Michigan late Wednesday into Thursday bringing chances of much
needed rain. Wednesday will be more of a warm air advection hit and
miss shower situation as Thursday will become more widespread. The
cold front finally makes passage sometime early Friday, bringing yet
more chances of precipitation. Some locations may see up to 2.00
inches of QPF by Friday morning (WPC has the forecast area in Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall...mostly eastern upper). Don`t see much
in thunder happening until later into Thursday, although there is
not much instability, a southwesterly LLJ in excess of 50 knots
could produce damaging winds in even heavier rain showers...let
alone any thunderstorms that develop. Probably be some embedded
thunder chances here and there, but mostly locally heavy rainfall
and possible damaging winds. Southerly winds will veer to the
northwest throughout the day Friday and be very gusty, with some
gusts nearing 35-40mph...possibly locally higher. Highs will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s with the exception to Thursday ahead of
said cold front with WAA...some locations may see upper 70s; while
lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

High impact weather potential: Possible frost Saturday and Sunday

As aformentioned system above departs to the east, high pressure and
much drier air will move into the region...providing precipitation
free weather and cooler temperatures Saturday. Looks like the
pattern will remain active though thereafter, with several
disturbances that may bring more chances of rain through the
forecast area at the end of the weekend into the next work week.
Highs will generally be in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Tough forecast for the upcoming TAF period. A stark mix of MVFR to
VFR cloud cover out there this evening with quick transitions
between the categories taking place. Quick transitions will
probably continue through tonight although I think the overall
trend will be for MVFR stratus to become more dominant as we go
through the night.

Periodic MVFR CIGS will likely continue through Wednesday while
another area of rainfall develops upstream and works toward the
region through the course of the day.


Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Tonight through Thursday...A warm front moves north tonight, but is
stalled over C Lower for a couple of days, as moisture moves over it
by Wednesday. However, the low pressure associated with this front
remains stalled in the Central Plains through Wednesday night. This
will keep the winds and waves below small craft criteria, until the
afternoon on Thursday. Thursday, afternoon and evening, the winds
will start to increase so that by Thursday evening, we should have
small craft wind gusts on the Great Lakes.




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