Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 270732
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
332 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

...Cooler with some mixed rain/snow showers...

High impact weather potential: none.

Cold front is slowly moving into se sections of the forecast area.
Actual moisture trails the front by a healthy margin; bands of
showers are seen over northern Lake MI and adjoining land areas of
MI. The series of digging shortwaves contributing to this
activity will eventually close off a 500mb low over ne lower MI
late tonight. That will all contribute to wx that will be somewhat
showery and sharply cooler as we wrap up the work week and dive
into the weekend.

Lead impulse of mid-level energy is marked out nicely by the primary
band of showers over eastern upper MI and northern Lake MI. Near-
term guidance brings this into nw and n central lower MI in the pre-
dawn hours, then tends to diminish it after 12Z. This band still
looks like mostly liquid precip, perhaps turning to snow toward
the back edge. Small 500mb shortwave ridge axis builds overhead
today, in the wake of that initial impulse and ahead of more
vigorous waves pushing into northern WI and western upper MI.
Associated small-scale subsidence/ drying aloft will result in a
relative lull in precip chances behind this initial band, which
will exit toward noon/1 pm. An exception will be in Frankfort/MBL/
CAD this afternoon, in advance of a surface low deepening in WI.
Warm advection and fgen forcing in advance of this low could
spill a few rain showers into this region, though precip will be
much more substantial w of Lake MI.

The relatively early passage of forcing should keep the risk of
diurnal thunder very low (see SPC day 1 outlook, which has a
thunder risk to se, s, and w, but not here).

Tonight, the surface low about to pass to our south falls apart,
as energy transfers to an organizing low over the eastern lakes.
The initial system may support some early showers in the south.
However, the primary focus will shift to precip wrapping back
into ne lower/eastern upper MI, from the surface low to the se and
the closing-off 500mb low overhead. Scattered showers will return
to that area, with the highest pops centered on APN/Rogers/
Atlanta. These will be mixed rain/snow this evening, primarily
snow overnight. Perhaps a slushy coating on grassy or still snow-
covered areas by morning.

Max temps today in the mid 40s to around 50f in most places,
though low-mid 50s the far se. Min temps tonight mid 20s to lower
30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

...Warmer and Drier by Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential...with the loss of snow cover, the
winds gaining strength and the lower Relative humidity, elevated
fire danger is possible.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The 500 mb low rotates out of the Upper
Great Lakes and dry air begins to push it`s way into the region with
the sfc and 500 mb ridges. Model soundings show a very dry layer at
850 mb and above, which with the sunshine expected we should mix
well into. The models have been trending down on the sfc dewpoints
over the last few runs, and with the warming temperatures will see
some sub-25% rh readings in the afternoons, especially Sunday.
However, it looks like the windier of the days will be Saturday, as
the gradient will be fairly tight as the low retreats and the high
builds into the region. Sunday the sfc high will build in, and
leaving a slack gradient, keeping the fire danger a little lower.

Primary Forecast Concerns...As stated, the fire danger is the main
issue. The system isn`t very coordinated with the dry air not
arriving in NE Lower where the lower RH values are expected until
late in the day. However, the winds should be diminishing so we may
miss out on the elevated conditions. Sunday, the winds should behave
as the sfc high will be over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

...Warm and Dry to Start the Week, Thunder possible later on...

Extended (Monday through Thursday)...Monday and Tuesday are starting
to become a concern as the temperatures are expected to get into the
mid to upper 70s and the winds beginning to gust near 15 mph on
Monday and a likely on Tuesday. The question will be the min rh on
both days. Will the return flow be able to moisten up boundary layer
on Tuesday so that the rh only drops into the mid 30s? Hard to say
at this point, the models say that we will moisten up at 850 mb as
the next system approaches, but we are in pre-green up, so there is
a chance that our current rh (mainly Tuesday) is too high. Tuesday
night, the next system begins to push the chance for thunderstorms
into the region (!). These may linger into Wednesday, especially in
the afternoon. Thursday looks mainly like rain showers as the area
will probably be covered in clouds, with rain and rain showers and
cooling showers. Not confident enough to add thunder, but it does
look like there could be a few rumbles on Thursday as the moves
through and clearing out on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1153 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Some MVFR CIGS possible later tonight into Friday morning...

Mid and high clouds continue to stream in over nrn Michigan,
associated with a cold front aligned from Wisconsin to Green Bay
and eastern upper Michigan. The parent shortwave aloft has indeed
been allowing for an expansion of showers in a narrow corridor
behind the front, which are still expected to pass through the
airports later tonight into Friday morning (with the possibility
of some light snow mixing in). A secondary shortwave drops into
mainly TVC/MBL tomorrow afternoon and evening for the possibility
of some more light rain showers, again possibly mixing with a
little light snow Friday night. However, the trend is for lower
chances of seeing anything at all, certainly anything too
measurable.

Light winds will quickly turn NW behind the front over the next
handful of hours, and remain N/NW and relatively light through
the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Nw to n winds will persist into tonight, as a series of low
pressure systems pass to our south. These winds will become
stronger/gustier tonight, especially late. Some advisories will
likely be needed late Fri night into Saturday evening, but too
soon to post those just yet.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JZ


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