290
FXUS63 KAPX 110406
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1206 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated chances of showers tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Wildfire smoke expected overhead along with warm
  temperatures through the remainder of the week.

- Slight chances for showers again early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Current forecast remains on track with no major changes as
light showers work across the area this evening and tonight. For
details, please see the short term forecast below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A fairly progressive pattern is in place with surface high
pressure extending a ridge of high pressure across the
Northwoods. Multiple waves are tracking through the flow towards
the forecast area resulting in isolated to scattered showers
possible for tonight into Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, Wildfire
smoke is expected to track overhead this evening into
Wednesday, especially EUP and portions of the tip of the Mitt
with slightly more smoke expected Wednesday afternoon/ evening.
No major impacts are expected with this, but the sunsets (and
sunrises) for tonight and Wednesday could have hints of orange
in them as a result. Temperatures will be warmer tonight ranging
in the 50s with clouds and aformentioned smoke keeping some of
the daytime`s heat at the surface. Daytime highs for Wednesday
look to climb back into the 80s for most but will be influenced
by the smoke, so have lowered temperatures slightly for
Wednesday to account for this. Any lingering showers will
dissipate by Wednesday afternoon, making for another quiet
partly to mostly sunny day, with the exception of Wildfire smoke
making it appear cloudy/ hazy.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Very warm late summer condtions over the next few to likely
even several days. The main question mark is where tropical
moisture from Francine (currently in the western Gulf of Mexico)
will end up this weekend into early next week. Most model
guidance strengthens the upper level ridge while holding it
across the region which would block moisture from advancing this
far north. This makes sense based on recent climatology bias so
will trend the forecast in that direction and remove pops
through Sunday and not have anything above slight chance early
next week (little to no rain is anticipated through the long
term). Otherwise, very warm days and mild nights are expected
through the period. Highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s
with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Am a little concerned that
persistent wildfire smoke from the western states and Canada
will stunt potential daytime warmth, especially Thursday when
smoke models indicate that it will be fairly thick across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the issuance period.
Light scattered showers will continue to work from west to east
across the area tonight, and perhaps linger across northern Michigan
Wednesday morning. VSBYs/CIGs are not expected to be significantly
impacted by this activity. Otherwise, weak/calm winds tonight will
strengthen out of the south-southwest today, becoming 5-10 kts with
gusts between 15-20 kts at times.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJC
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...DJC