735
FXUS61 KILN 260247
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
947 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the Ohio Valley tonight
with high pressure then building into the region through the
first part of the upcoming week. Mainly dry conditions are
forecast with temperatures moderating to above normal readings
through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Westerly mid level flow with a disturbance moving thru the Great
Lakes. Weak isentropic lift along and north of I-70 has led to
a band of mid level clouds. At the surface a weak cold front
will move east across the region late tonight - with a general
increase in clouds overnight.

With weak CAA developing behind the front late, lows tonight
will range from the lower 20s northwest to the upper 20s
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will move off to our east through the day on
Sunday with some weak CAA continuing across the area. A fair
amount of mainly mid and high level clouds will linger
through the day on Sunday before beginning to clear out Sunday
night. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 20s northwest
to the upper 30s southeast. Lows Sunday night will be in
the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry conditions will start out the long term on Monday with breezy
conditions developing during the day.  A weak boundary works into
the region Monday night. Expect generally dry conditions, but given
the boundary tries to wash out over the region, expect an increase
in moisture across the region with the potential for some stratus or
fog across portions of the region. There is some wind that does
stick around Monday night. Confidence was not high enough to
introduce fog in the forecast at this point, however did increase
clouds across northeastern portions of the region and have less
clouds across the southwestern portions of the area.

Dry conditions will continue until generally Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night when a disturbance moves down into primarily
the northern half of the region.  There will be some moisture
enhancement off of the lake so have a slight chance to chance pops.
Precipitation type will be primarily light snow showers, however
depending on timing and how far south the precipitation reaches some
rain showers mixed in will also be possible.

Have dry conditions returning for Thursday through the first part of
the night Friday night.  The NBM brings precipitation chances very
early, however it looks that most solutions hold precipitation
chances off until at least the second half of the night Friday
night.  Non-diurnal temperatures are expected at this time Friday
night and have temperatures rising during the second half of the
night.  Some model solutions are warmer than others, however there
will be very warm air aloft. The two most likely solutions Friday
night into Saturday morning are that warm air either makes it down
to the surface or it doesn`t.  In other words, it will either be all
rain or precipitation will start as freezing rain before
transitioning over to rain during the day on Saturday.  The third
possibility is precipitation chances will hold off longer increasing
the likelihood of when it finally precipitates that it will be rain.
Snow is not expected Friday night into Saturday morning with this
system at this time. There is a very warm air aloft that would allow
for melting aloft.

For temperatures through the week, expect high temperatures
generally in the 30s and 40s.  Low temperatures will be a lot more
variable through the week.  The coldest night is expected to be
Wednesday night with lows in the teens to middle 20s.  The warmest
night will be Saturday night with lows in the 30s and 40s
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front will move east across the region late tonight
into Sunday morning. Moisture is limited with this system - so
main effect will be just some mid and high clouds at times. A
period of low level wind shear will be possible this evening
associated with a modest southwest-west low level jet around
45 kts.

Southwest winds will decreasing to 5 to 10 kts this evening.
Winds will eventually veer to the west late tonight as the cold
front moves through and then continue westerly at 10 kts or less
Sunday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR