Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 261340
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
940 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building across the Great Lakes will keep dry
weather conditions over the area today. A weak cold front may
bring some showers on Friday. Showers will be possible Saturday,
before drier weather returns to the area for Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure extends from the Western Great Lakes to
Northern Ohio, while low pressure travels across Tennessee. The
ILN area is likely to remain free of precip today as the dry
circulation around the high prevents deep cloud development. Sky
cover will become greater in southern counties at the edge of
the moisture shield associated with the low.

A very weak gradient across the area today will keep winds
light with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 60s under
generally abundant insolation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Thursday night into Friday the upper level low and corresponding
surface low will pull northeast out of North Carolina staying
southeast of Ohio. Clouds will thicken and lower though (esp.
south of the Ohio river) allowing low temperatures to only fall
into the upper 40s across the southeast. During the day Friday
the next upper level shortwave will dive south out of Ontario.
This will allow a cold front to push through the area Friday
afternoon. PWATs ahead of the front pool to around 0.70" (GFS is
slightly more robust with moisture than the NAM) with upper
level support being weak (little PVA and immediately under the
trough axis). Looking at both NAM and GFS forecast soundings do
reveal instability forming ahead of the front across our eastern
counties. There is dry air above 500 mb in the soundings, so dry
air entrainment will definitely be in play to limit
development. Either way, have nudged PoPs up across the east to
chance given the forecast soundings.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system will drift east across the Great
Lakes and over toward New England through the weekend. A series of
embedded short waves will rotate around the low Friday night into
Saturday, leading to a chance of showers, especially across
northern/eastern portions of our area. It will also lead to a
secondary shot of CAA as we head into the weekend with 850 mb
temperatures dropping down into the -2 to -4 degree Celsius range
through the day on Saturday. As a result, expect highs on Saturday
only ranging from the low 50s in the north to the mid to possibly
upper 50s across our south.

Surface high pressure will begin to build in from the west Saturday
night into Sunday, leading to dry conditions heading into early next
week. However, an unseasonable cool airmass will remain in place
across the region through the weekend. Lows Saturday night will fall
into the low to mid 30s, leading to the possibility of fairly
widespread frost. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 50s.

The ridge will build to our southeast through mid week and as it
does, we will begin to see increasing southwesterly flow across our
area. This will lead to developing WAA and a warmup through the
remainder of the long term period. Highs on Monday will be in the
mid to upper 60s, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday well into the
70s. There remain some model differences with just how fast the high
will begin to be suppressed off to the southeast by mid to late week
and as a result, just how fast the trough over the central United
States works east toward our area. However, it does look like it may
be fast enough to at least warrant some lower chance pops for
thunderstorms by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Almost all TAF sites are currently VFR with only KLCK and KDAY
having some MVFR strato-cu. These restrictions to MVFR will be
transient though with mostly VFR through the TAF issuance
expected.

Low pressure off to our southwest will allow high clouds to
continue today. Light east winds will back more northerly by the
end of the taf issuance, but will be very light (perhaps light
and variable at times).

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Saturday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Haines



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