562
FXUS64 KOUN 200700
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
100 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

 - There is a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance for rain showers to
   return to southeast Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday
   morning.

 - Winter precipitation is likely Friday through Sunday, with
   hazardous travel impacts expected.

 - There is a high (>90%) chance for very cold temperatures across
   the area Saturday and Sunday, with wind chills below 0F
   possible.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A return to southerly winds this morning will help afternoon
temperatures get up into the 50s for most locations. Sunny skies
will allow for sufficient mixing this afternoon, which will aid in
surface winds of 10-20 mph across the entire area. A surface cold
front will begin to meander towards Oklahoma late Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Aforementioned frontal passage will help overnight lows get into
the 20s across northern and western Oklahoma and adjacent western
north Texas, and into the 30s elsewhere. There is a low to medium
(30-50%) chance for rain showers across southeast Oklahoma
Wednesday morning. Amounts generally will be light with this
activity.

Surface high across the central Plains will slide to the east,
with east-northeasterly winds expected across the area Thursday.
Cloud cover will increase during the day, with highs in the upper
40s (north) and 50s elsewhere.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1244 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A broad shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and vicinity will
aid in continuous cold air advection across the southern Plains
through much of the long term. Confidence is very high that our
next system will continue to bring in much colder air Friday into
the weekend, with winter precipitation likely. The overall
synoptic pattern will feature a closed low off the Pacific that is
expected to become a more open wave as it moves closer to the
southern Plains. Zonal upper level flow ahead of this wave will
foster continuous isentropic ascent, which will allow for more
widespread precipitation across the area. The potential for an
impactful winter weather event is increasing across the entire
area. Although this event is still several days out, models are
beginning to become more aligned with one another. Below is
additional information on the event.

What we know:

-Dangerously cold temperatures are expected Saturday morning and
 Sunday morning, with lows generally in the single digits to near
 0F. Widespread wind chills below 0F are likely across much of the
 area both mornings.

-High confidence that temperatures will remain below freezing
 Saturday afternoon, which will have an impact on winter
 precipitation.

-Widespread winter precipitation is likely Friday in the weekend.
 In fact, ensemble probabilities of greater than 1 inch of
 snowfall through Sunday is over 80% across the northern third of
 the area, and 50-70% elsewhere.

-The continuous large scale lift even has the chance at producing
 over 4 inches of snow across portions of the area. There is a
 50-60% chance of 4+ inches of snow generally along the I-40
 corridor, and a 30-40% elsewhere.

-There is a 40-50% chance of a wintry mix along and south of I-40
 Friday, decreasing generally from north to south as the colder
 air (at the surface and aloft) funnels in. Most guidance has a
 wintry mix across the southern half of the area initially,
 transitioning to snow through the remainder of the event.

What we are keeping an eye on:

-Temperatures: Temperatures aloft and at the surface initially
 will play a huge role on precipitation type during this event.

-Exact amounts of each precipitation type: Snowfall/sleet/ice
 amounts will be heavily dependent on how the overall system
 evolves leading up to the event.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the upcoming TAF period. After
some variability in wind direction tonight, a shift to uniform
southerly will occur tomorrow. Maximum gusts of 20 knots are
possible in northern and western Oklahoma.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  34  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         51  30  54  26 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  54  40  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           55  24  52  21 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     51  27  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         54  40  60  35 /   0  40  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...04