773
FXUS64 KOUN 301744
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

-Potentially life-threatening flash flood/flood threat through
Wednesday.

-Severe thunderstorms with all hazards possible through Wednesday.

-Unsettled weather will moderate over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Significant flash flooding and severe thunderstorms (all hazards)
continue to be the headlines in the short term.

As one round of showers and storms moves out, we can see the next
round developing in north and west Texas. In general, CAMs seem to
be running on the slow side. While CAMs suggest a break in storms,
radar trends suggest there may not be much of a break. Thus far, 24-
hr rainfall amounts have been 1 to 2.5 inches along the I-44
corridor with locally higher amounts. Another 1 to 3 inches is
expected over the next 12-18 hours, mainly over southern Oklahoma
and north Texas. This is on top of an area that already has numerous
flash flood warnings.

As mentioned in the previous AFD, all other convective hazards
remain possible-especially south of the boundary. Those hazards will
be dictated by convective mode...with the best chance of
discrete/supercell storms over the Red River Valley and points
south. Otherwise, convective segments/clusters also have readily
produced damaging wind gusts within this airmass.

CAMs depict the last round Wednesday afternoon / evening. This round
appears to be more progressive and much smaller in areal extent,
though confidence in CAM predictions out this far is low due to
effects from convection between now and then.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Thursday should give us a brief lull in rain, with another wave (and
associated rain chances) moving through Thursday night into Friday
morning. Thursday should be mostly sunny and mild. Friday will be
mostly cloudy and slightly cooler.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Low amplitude ridging aloft will briefly influence our weather into
the weekend before another western U.S. storm system deepens during
the Sunday/Monday timeframe with some signals of unsettled weather
for the southern Plains again by the first half of next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

MVFR conditions are possible over KDUA this afternoon as the
thunderstorm complex gradually shifts eastward. Otherwise, VFR
conditions this afternoon and mostly dry. Low chances of showers
and thunderstorms exist late evening for KCSM, KLAW, and KSPS.
Patchy fog is possible late tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  78  57  68 /  50   0  60  60
Hobart OK         51  79  55  70 /  50   0  60  60
Wichita Falls TX  54  82  57  70 /  40   0  40  70
Gage OK           46  76  50  70 /  20  10  70  30
Ponca City OK     55  77  54  72 /  30  10  50  20
Durant OK         60  83  61  73 /  70   0  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ008-012-013-016>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...01