Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 141947
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
247 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Upstream convectively overturned air mass has modified
sufficiently to support temperature/dew point combinations
sufficient for traditional Heat Advisory criteria across portions
of central and northern Oklahoma. Considering wet bulb globe
temperatures, with lighter southeasterly winds than yesterday, and
with absence of midlevel clouds and convection, the overall heat
impacts should be similar or slightly greater. It`s marginal, but
probably worthy of the earlier expansion of the Heat Advisory.

A northern Plains shortwave trough and trailing surface cold front
down into Kansas will interact with upslope flow/low-level
moisture advection and steep midlevel lapse rates to result in
robust convective development later today. This should occur from
north-central Kansas into southwest Kansas. Additional development
is likely along the terrain of the Raton Mesa, and even down into
the Texas Panhandle where weak forcing and sufficient heating/CIN
erosion may occur. Flow aloft is fairly weak but sufficient when
contrasted with southeasterly low-level flow for around 35 knots
of effective shear. Steep midlevel lapse rates are present too,
and this may help maintain storms into our northwest counties
later this evening. Increasing CIN will cause the storms to
decrease by the time they potentially move into our area. We`ll
have to watch for some upstream convectively-induced mesoscale
features (i.e., an MCV) and/or residual midlevel moisture/clouds
that may work into the area, too, having impacts to other fields
such as sky cover and winds. For now, low probabilities were
confined to far western section of the area after 10pm through
around sunrise.

Tomorrow should be similar to today, and our highest confidence
in impactful heat is across southern Oklahoma. Thus, we didn`t
extend the Advisory northward, but some areas into central
Oklahoma could again get close to 105F heat index values.

BRB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

The upper level ridge will continue to shift westward towards
Arizona and Nevada over the weekend, which will lessen the influence
of the ridge over the region. The upper level flow will gradually
shift to a northwest flow and eventually into a north-south flow
during next week. Shortwaves embedded within the upper level flow
will provide support for a chance at precipitation through western
parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas Saturday night through
Monday morning in the absence of the upper level ridge. Temperatures
across the region will begin to gradually cool to comfortable below
average levels through next week.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Wind direction will gradually change throughout the TAF period.
Otherwise VFR conditions will likely prevail. A few storms could
approach Woodward by mid evening, though the probability is low.
Some low stratus may again develop early tomorrow morning at
Woodward, too, though not as great of a chance as this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  93  70  89 /   0   0  10  20
Hobart OK         73  98  71  92 /  10  10  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  75 100  75  96 /   0  10  10  20
Gage OK           68  93  66  90 /  20  10  40  30
Ponca City OK     71  91  65  86 /   0   0  20  20
Durant OK         75 100  75  96 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>033-036>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ041-043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...12


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