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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191944
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
244 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Warm, quiet weather will continue a little bit longer through Friday
afternoon and evening across the region, with temperatures
continuing to climb into the low to mid 90s. Some showers and storms
are expected to continue developing through Kansas, and while they
will likely remain and decay before reaching Oklahoma, a few of
these showers may make it across the Oklahoma/Kansas border,
resulting in some light showers in far northern Oklahoma before
dissipating.

Overall conditions begin to change on Saturday, as the overall large
scale pattern of an upper level trough moving through Iowa/Illinois
and an upper level ridge over the Southwest US begins to move
eastward. Monsoonal moisture From Arizona/New Mexico will begin
moving eastward, resulting in gradually cloudier skies through
Saturday which will help keep high temperatures similar to Friday.
With this significant advection of moisture into the region
(precipitable water values ~ 2" in southern Oklahoma/western north
Texas), chances for showers begin to increase Saturday afternoon.
Precipitation chances will increase west to east along with the
advection of the moisture through the region.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Rain, potentially heavy in some areas, will be the story over the
weekend into next week.

An upper low over northwest Mexico will slowly drift towards and
across the southern Plains over the next several days. This system
will bring tropical moisture to the region with PWATs of 2+ inches
forecast for parts of southern OK and north TX. There will be a
chance for rain across at least parts of the fa into the middle of
next week. The highest chances and highest potential rainfall
amounts will be across portions of southern OK and western north
Texas. Unfortunately for northern and even parts of central OK,
models continue to show the heaviest rainfall shifting south which
means not as much rainfall in central OK and even less in northern
OK, although everyone does at least have a chance for some rain. One
caveat is that if the previously mentioned upper low tracks further
north than current forecasts the heavier rainfall amounts would
likely shift northward some. Right now, rainfall totals of 3 to 5
inches over the next several days look possible in southern portions
of the fa. The heavy rain could lead to flooding in some areas and a
Flood Watch could be needed depending on how things evolve.

On the temperature side of things, the cooler conditions will
continue next week with temperatures near or below average. In fact
temperatures are currently not forecast to climb out of the 70s for
a large part of the area Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Recent fog has dissipated across southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas, and VFR conditions are expected to continue across
the region through Saturday morning. Clouds will begin increasing
north to south late Friday night into Saturday with remnant storms
from Kansas possibly making it into northern Oklahoma. Winds will
remain primarily out of the south/southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  94  70  77 /   0  20  40  60
Hobart OK         69  94  69  76 /   0  20  60  80
Wichita Falls TX  72  96  71  79 /   0  20  60  80
Gage OK           65  91  65  79 /  10  30  40  60
Ponca City OK     68  94  69  86 /  10  10  20  30
Durant OK         69  94  72  82 /   0  10  30  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...50