Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201943
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
243 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Main concern for this forecast will be heavy rainfall Friday and
Saturday, bringing with it a threat for flash flooding.

Showers and storms will form along a front in Kansas and the
panhandles and make their way into northwest Oklahoma late tonight.
Precipitation will gradually spread over the area overnight into
tomorrow as the front pushes south. There is enough instability to
support some thunder along the front, but most of the precipitation
behind the front should be showers. In addition, cooler temperatures
will fill in behind this front and remain through the weekend.

As far as the heavy rain and flash flood threat Friday and Saturday
goes, not a whole lot has changed from the previous forecast. As
Mahale mentioned in the previous AFD a number of ingredients will
come together to produce a recipe for heavy rain (recapped below):

1) The aforementioned front will gradually make its way
southeastward through the forecast area Friday serving as a focus
for rainfall (along and north of the front).

2) An upper level shortwave moving across the area will serve to
enhance lift.

3) An abundance of moisture is forecast to move in from the gulf and
from TD19 tonight and tomorrow. PWATs steadily increase through the
day tomorrow until they reach into the 2 to 2.25 inch range across
much of southern and central Oklahoma and parts of western north
Texas by about noon Friday. This moisture will linger in southeast
portions of the forecast area through early Saturday maintaining
rain chances through that same period.

As a result, heavy rain and flash flooding will be a threat for the
southern two thirds of Oklahoma and western north Texas where a
flash flood watch is in effect for Friday morning through early
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches are expected with locally
higher amounts.

Lower POPs will linger into next week. We`ll see a brief warmup
Monday and Tuesday before another front comes through the area.
However, confidence in the timing of this front is still low.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  73  58  72 /  30  90  70  30
Hobart OK         70  72  57  75 /  60  90  40  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  78  61  70 /  40  90  80  40
Gage OK           66  70  50  74 /  70  80  10  10
Ponca City OK     70  72  55  75 /  40  90  40  10
Durant OK         72  80  66  72 /  20  90  90  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     OKZ014>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/14


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