457
FXUS64 KAMA 240810
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
310 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A cold front will move through the Panhandles this overnight period
and clear the area by sunrise. Breezy winds are expected with the
frontal passage as well as behind the front with gusts as high as 40
to 55 mph possible. These winds should weaken in the late morning
hours as winds trend from northeasterly to southeasterly through the
day as low-level moisture begins to creep back into the Panhandles.

Saturday morning, some shallow low-level moisture should be spread
out across the Panhandles with a dryline in eastern New Mexico. A
shortwave trough will move toward the Panhandles through the morning
hours, rapidly deepening a surface low in southeastern Colorado to
as low as around 990mb. This will result in a tightened surface
pressure gradient, strengthening the winds across the Panhandles.
The dryline will rapidly push through the Panhandles and into
western Oklahoma through the afternoon. Relative humidity values
will plummet behind the dryline as dry air mixes down from aloft and
additional dry air gets advected in from the southwest. Expecting
sustained winds between 20 to 30 mph, possibly up to 35 mph at
times, with wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph, possibly up to 45 mph.
This leads to concerns regarding elevated to critical fire weather
conditions across much of the western half of the combined
Panhandles, primarily the far western Panhandles. As such... have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for much of the western half of the
combined Panhandles. Otherwise, temperatures will be in the 90s for
almost the entire CWA, with some 95-100 degree readings expected
along the Canadian River Valley, Palo Duro Canyon, and the
southeastern TX Panhandle. Winds will gradually weaken through night
as winds trend toward northwesterly.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Saturday, winds are expected to strengthen through the morning
into the afternoon hours to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph.
Morning relative humidity values in the western combined
Panhandles will start rather high, between 50% to 60%, but plummet
through the morning hours and into the afternoon to a minimum of
5% to 10%. This produces RFTI values between 5 to 7 with localized
pockets of 8 possible. As such... a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for much of the western half of the combined Panhandles for
Saturday.


Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A weak cold front will pull up stationary across the southwest Texas
Panhandle on Sunday.  Winds will remain generally in the 10 to 15
mph range out of the northwest, except for the southwest Texas
Panhandle where winds will be out of the west at speeds of 15 to 20
mph.  Another stronger cold front moves through the Panhandles
Sunday night.

The flow aloft then becomes more northwesterly or slightly zonal
from Monday through Friday.  This flow will have several minor
disturbances that will move through it across the Panhandles.  These
disturbances will combine with low level moisture to bring chances
of showers and thunderstorms to the areas from Tuesday through
Friday.  The best chances of rain will generally be timed with the
upper level disturbances.  Plus, any mountain convection should head
this way as well.

High temperatures will generally be in the 80`s for much of the
week after Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through this period. The main
feature of concern will be a cold front that`s approaching the
Panhandles tonight. Have attempted to time it out based on its
current pace for each terminal, but slight adjustments may need to
be made. Expect gusty winds with the frontal passage as well as behind
it. Gusts above 35 kts will be possible at KAMA and KGUY. Winds
gradually weaken through the day.

Vanden Bosch

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  54  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  81  51  95  55 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              76  49  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  84  56  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              84  55  96  54 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  53  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               81  53  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 79  49  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  79  50  94  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                85  53  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                80  53  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   81  54  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                82  53  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              84  54  98  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...52