488
FXUS61 KCAR 011717
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
117 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbance drifts and stalls over the Maritimes while
surface high pressure builds in this weekend. A weak system
tracks south of Maine early week with high pressure remaining
overhead into midweek. High pressure drifts southeast of the
Gulf of Maine into Thursday as a storm system tracks into the
Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1pm Update...Mostly sunny and tranquil afternoon. Some fair
weather cumulus have developed, and increased sky cover a few
percent to account for cumulus being a bit more abundant than
expected. Still sunny/mostly sunny for majority of areas,
though, with the exception of Washington County where there are
a few more clouds and it`s partly cloudy.

Previous Discussion... We are on the boundary of changing
airmass today across Maine with an upper disturbance over the
Maritimes stalling near Nova Scotia due to North Atlantic
blocking (-NAO). 925mb temps warming into the +12C to +15C range
across our western CWA with +9C to +10C in eastern areas.
Expecting mostly sunny skies across much of the CWA except in
eastern areas near New Brunswick and Downeast where the moisture
around the 500mb low will bring skies to be more partly sunny.
Warmest temps will be across the western and northern zones with
upper 60s to low 70s. In Washington County from the coast
northward to Danforth will be the cooler spots in the mid to
upper 60s. Additionally, winds along the shoreline today will
shift in the afternoon to be a weak sea breeze. Given
temperatures near 70F or slightly warmer at the request of the
United States Coast Guard we have put a Beach Hazard Statement
up for the messaging of cold water safety, additionally over
inland areas an SPS is out for cold water safety. Except at the
shore the winds across the area are northerly generally 5-10mph
with gusts at times up to 20mph.

Tonight, surface high pressure drifts over western New England
with the 500mb ridge continuing to be squeezed between the
Maritime low and a shortwave entering the eastern Great Lakes.
Another clear and calm night tonight with temperatures falling
back into the low to mid 40s except a few 38-39F readings in the
North Woods cold spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will begin to slowly work into the area during the
day on Sunday. As this ridge of high pressure slowly approaches,
a deep low pressure system the Canadian Maritimes will slowly
retrograde towards Maine from the east. The trend has been for
the high pressure ridge to be slow enough to establish in the
forecast area, that a 700mb vort max will be able to push
westward in to the area late Sunday into Sunday night. High
pressure will keep skies clear on Sunday, while cloud cover
increases into Sunday night as the vort max enters the area,
followed by an increased chance for light rain showers into the
day on Monday.

The area of vorticity will exit the area into Monday night as
the ridge of high pressure shifts further east and over our
forecast area. With this shift, the chance for rain will also
decrease into the night, and skies will begin to slowly clear.

Temperatures will be slightly above average through the short
term, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the lower
50s. With light winds under partly to mostly clear skies, a
daily sea breeze is expected along the coast, which will keep
high temperatures along the immediate coast a bit cooler than
the Interior Downeast region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue into the middle of the upcoming
week, keeping skies partly to mostly clear. And as the same air
mass as described in the short term remains overhead,
temperatures will persist slightly above normal through the
middle of the week. The next chance for measurable rainfall will
approach in the form of a cold front moving towards the area
from the west on Friday. There is still some uncertainty in
storm track and especially in timing, with potential for this
feature to not arrive until the upcoming weekend. That said,
there is consistency across global models in the existence of
this low pressure system, and that it may tap into the Gulf of
Mexico as a moisture source, drawing moisture to support
measurable rainfall into our forecast area at the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through Sunday. N winds 5-15kt afternoon hours
today and tomorrow, with light winds tonight. BHB and BGR will
shift S-SE late this afternoon with a sea breeze, with winds
becoming quiet around sunset.


SHORT TERM:
Sunday Night - Wednesday: Generally VFR conditions across all
terminals, with light winds generally out of the north around 5
kts Sunday night and Monday, becoming more southerly by
Wednesday. Coastal terminals could see a shift to southerly
winds each afternoon with a sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA conditions through
tonight. N-NE winds this morning less than 15kt shift E-SE this
afternoon before becoming W tonight less than 10kt. Seas 1-2ft
today with a period of 7 seconds. Seas subsiding to 1ft or less
on the intra-coastal waters tonight and 1-2ft on the coastal
waters. Wave periods remain around 7 seconds. Sea surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s extend from the Downeast
coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including
Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels Sunday through Wednesday, with winds light
and variable and seas around 1 to 2 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Foisy/Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Foisy/Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Foisy/Sinko/AStrauser