Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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043
FXUS61 KCAR 080012
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
812 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue south tonight into Tuesday as high
pressure builds across the north. High pressure will remain over the
area Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will slowly cross the area
Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
8:10 PM Update...Showers and thunderstorms are continuing this
evening over the Central Highlands. Any thunderstorms are
capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. The threat
of gusty winds will end later this evening, but rain showers
will likely continue there much of the night. A few showers are
also moving through the Crown of Maine, but thunder is not
expected there due to cooler, stable air. These showers will end
over the Crown of Maine by late tonight.

Allowed the Heat Advisory for the Bangor region to expire with
the loss of daytime heating. Also updated the Aviation section
to reflect the 00z TAFs.

Previous Discussion...
A front remains stalled across the north this evening,
continuing the rain threat across the north while Downeast
remains mostly clear. Between these two regimes, diurnal heating
mixed with elevated moisture levels has led to the development
of plenty of towering cumulus, scattered showers, and isolated
thunderstorms. The shower and thunderstorm threat will continue
across the Central Highlands into southern Aroostook county over
the next several hours prior to the decrease in diurnal heating
as the sun begins to set this evening. With 30 to 40 kts of bulk
shear, around 1500 J/kg CAPE, and robust moisture, these storms
may become organized enough to persist for longer periods of
time and have the potential to become strong to severe. The main
threat from any organized thunderstorm will be of gusty winds,
though heavy rain is quite possible as well.

Overnight, the stalled front will finally begin to shift
southwards, entering the Downeast region by early Tuesday
morning and translating the shower and storm threat to this
region, while the north begins to dry out. Showers will continue
through much of the day on Tuesday, while thunderstorms are
most likely during peak heating hours Tuesday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures are in store with the return of cold air advection
as the boundary moves through in addition to the return of
cloudy skies and evaporational cooling. Highs will likely sit in
the mid 70s over the majority of the forecast area on Tuesday.

The front should slide off the coast by Tuesday night, leaving
the forecast area to begin to dry out overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure will be over the northeast on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will begin to approach from the Great
Lakes region beneath a blocking ridge over East Central Canada. This
blocking ridge will make the approach of this trough very slow.
Moisture lifting north ahead of the trough will bring a mostly
cloudy and seasonably warm day on Wednesday with inland highs in the
upper 70s. The trough will continue to slowly approach Wednesday
night and some showers may stray into western areas toward morning.
As the trough continues to approach on Thursday, it will develop
weak low pressure to our west with a secondary low forming east of
Southern New England. The low offshore is expected to track well
south of the area. However, moisture and lift from the trough will
bring a mostly cloudy day with showers and a chance of afternoon
thunderstorms, mainly across western and northern areas. High
temperatures will be seasonable, mainly in the upper 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper trough will continue to slowly advance through Southern
Quebec Thursday night, beneath the blocking upper high over Northern
Quebec. This will continue to bring mostly cloudy conditions with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly north and west.
The trough will begin to lift up to our north on Friday. Moisture
and some cool air aloft will continue to produce scattered showers
and a chance of thunderstorms well inland, possibly continuing into
Friday evening. The trough should finally begin to exit east,
northeast into the Northern Maritimes Friday night into Saturday as
upper level ridging begins to follow, building in from Western
Quebec. Subsidence behind the departing trough and ahead of the
upper ridge should bring some clearing Friday night followed by a
mostly sunny day on Saturday. The ridge should build over on Sunday
bringing a partly sunny and warm day. A large upper trough building
over West Central Canada will facilitate the breakdown of the
blocking pattern allowing for the clearing over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Northern terminals: MVFR/IFR conditions generally continue
through tonight in rain showers. Brief thunderstorms possible at
GNR/MLT/HUL tonight. Even after rain clears out of the area
tonight, low cigs are likely to remain. Beyond around 11z,
conditions will begin to rapidly improve, trending towards IFR
by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. E winds 5 to 10 kts
become light and variable overnight, shifting N around 5 kts for
Tuesday, then becoming light and variable Tuesday night. Higher
gusts possible in any thunderstorms this evening.

Bangor/Downeast terminals: VFR conditions quickly deteriorating
as rain moves in from the north. IFR/LIFR late this evening
into early Tuesday morning. BGR could see an isolated
thunderstorm overnight as the front begins to push into the
area. Coastal terminals may see LLWS before 04-06z. IFR/LIFR
cigs to begin the day on Tuesday could improve to MVFR through
the day, but rain showers likely to keep conditions below VFR or
at most low end VFR through the day on Tuesday, finally
recovering further into Tuesday night. S winds 5 to 10 kts
become light and variable overnight, shifting NE 5 to 10 kts on
Tuesday, then light and variable Tuesday night.


SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...VFR. Light and variable wind.

Wednesday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR late. Light E wind.

Thursday...VFR to MVFR, becoming VFR. Light SE wind.

Thursday night...MVFR to IFR north. MVFR south. Light SE wind.

Friday...MVFR to VFR south. IFR to MVFR north. Light SE wind.

Friday night...MVFR north. VFR south. Light E wind.

Saturday...VFR. Light E wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should remain below SCA levels through
Tuesday night. A few gusts to around 25 kt are possible across
the outer most waters into this evening. Visibility will be
reduced to 1 NM or less at times tonight through Tuesday morning
in fog and scattered showers.

SHORT TERM:
Generally tranquil conditions are expected from midweek through
the coming weekend. Some mist or patchy fog is possible over
the waters through late week into the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Clark
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...AStrauser/Clark/Bloomer
Marine...AStrauser/Clark/Bloomer