294
FXUS61 KCAR 091401
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1001 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will move away early this morning. Another
upper low will cross our region this afternoon through tonight and
move away to the northeast on Monday. Weak upper level low pressure
will remain in the vicinity Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging builds
to our north. High pressure will build to our south on Thursday as
another low begins to approach.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM Update: Current KCBW radar shows a few discrete showers
across Aroostook county this morning, with a batch of more
stratiform rain moving into southern Maine as seen on KGYX radar
as the next shortwave pushes into northern New England. With
the broad area of low pressure overhead, overcast skies continue
and will last through the day today.

Previous Discussion:
The upper low which brought our showers Saturday into Saturday
night will be moving away to the northeast this morning. This
low will bring only spotty showers early today. However, this is
a two part system which has another upper low that will approach
from Southern Quebec today and begin to move into the area this
afternoon. A jet max and embedded shortwave south of this low
will spread showers and embedded thunderstorms into southern
parts of our area this afternoon. Forecast CAPES are only around
100-200 J/kg, but precipitable water is expected to be over an
inch across the area raising the potential for some heavier
downpours in any embedded convective showers.

A cluster of heavier showers will lift north around the upper
low spreading more widespread showers up through the rest of
our area later this afternoon through this evening. Additional
soaking rainfall is likely. Some embedded thunderstorms and
heavier downpours will be possible Downeast this afternoon and
over much of the region later today through the evening. As low
pressure, both surface and aloft, pivots north tonight, showers
will diminish over the south but continue across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monday...
Models have trended significantly wetter for Monday morning in
Northern Maine, with the upper level low pressure and a surface
low positioned just east of the NE Maine/New Brunswick,
spinning nearly in place and bringing decent rainfall to
Northern Maine. Didn`t quite go as high for PoPs as the NBM
would suggest, as went with 80 PoPs north of Houlton while NBM
had 90 PoPs. Still some uncertainty with how things evolve, but
early Monday in the north is looking gloomier than it had been.

Expect the steadier rain in the north to taper off midday
Monday into the afternoon as the upper low over Northern New
Brunswick slowly moves east and away from us. Should be enough
instability, though, for scattered to numerous showers areawide
in the afternoon, with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm but
nothing strong.

Monday Night...
Showers should die off in the evening. With light winds and
recent rainfall, should be some fog in low-lying areas.

Tuesday...
Light flow aloft and at the surface over the state Tuesday.
Still enough moisture for a chance of afternoon showers, but
thanks to weak dynamics showers won`t be as abundant as recent
days with probabilities of measurable rain 25-50%. Warmer with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Light flow aloft remains over the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday night. A few afternoon showers and storms possible
Wednesday, but nothing significant. Slow warming trend continues
with highs near 80 Wednesday. Thursday and Friday, an upper
trough begins to approach from the west. Some uncertainty in the
timing of the trough. Some models bring increased shower/storm
chances beginning Thursday, while others hold things off until
the main event Friday. Either way, with decent dynamics late in
the week and a warm moist airmass, there is the potential for
some stronger storms Thursday/Friday. Likely drying out and
cooling down a bit for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
IFR To MVFR ceilings are expected north today into tonight with
MVFR to occasionally VFR conditions south today. However,
conditions may briefly lower to IFR in periods of heavier
rainfall and in thunderstorms. Light SW winds today and light W
winds tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Monday morning...MVFR/IFR possible, especially HUL north.

Monday afternoon-Wednesday...VFR, except for brief period of
MVFR possible in any stronger showers in the afternoon and MVFR
or lower possible in patchy fog late at night/early in the
morning. Winds generally less than 10 kts.

Wednesday night...VFR.

Thursday...VFR, except for brief period of MVFR possible in any
stronger convection. SW winds G15-20KT possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will remain below SCA and seas around 4 ft offshore and 3
ft intracoastal today and tonight. Moist air over the waters may
result in mist and fog at times.

SHORT TERM: A light to moderate pressure gradient over the
waters Monday should allow for winds up to 15 kt along with
some gusts to around 20 kt. Seas up to 4 ft are possible.

The pressure gradient relaxes and should be light Monday night-
Wednesday night, limiting winds to 10 kt or less over the
waters. Seas should be 3 ft or less until possibly Thursday and
Friday, when a building S-SW swell could increase seas to up to
around 5 ft on Friday. Small craft winds are also possible
around Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Bloomer
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...AStrauser/Bloomer/Foisy
Marine...AStrauser/Bloomer/Foisy