662
FXUS64 KCRP 251741
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1241 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Key Messages:

 Dangerous heat continues today, increases tomorrow

With the upper-level ridge continuing to build into South Texas,
above-normal temperatures are expected to continue today and
increase a couple of degrees tomorrow and expand eastward as
subsidence increases. Meanwhile, the abundance of surface moisture
will continue today with dewpoints a degree or two higher tomorrow.
This will continue the major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts
across the region. With heat indices expected to be higher (up to
120-122 degrees) and more wide spread tomorrow, there is high
confidence that the Excessive Heat Warning will be extended into
tomorrow with a high chance of expanding the warning eastward and
northward a bit. While on the subject of excessive heat, we have
extended the existing Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory into
this evening and through tonight as we are once again expecting poor
overnight recovery to the heat with widespread heat indices of 80-95
degrees from midnight through sunrise Saturday night.

As we are heading into the Memorial Day Holiday weekend, please be
sure to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks
from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and
lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat
exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it.
Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them
inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally,
check local media and government websites for cooling center
locations and hours.

Despite swell periods gradually decreasing, swell heights will
remain elevated around 3-4 ft which will promote water levels to
continue to run about a foot above normal, therefore, will maintain
the Coastal Flood Advisory for this morning and afternoon. Chances
for another Coastal Flood Advisory tomorrow are currently low as
swell periods and swell heights are expected to be lower.
Furthermore, with winds between 20-25 mph and wave heights of 4 to 5
feet across the local beaches south of Port Aransas, there is a
moderate risk of rip currents for today and expected to continue
into tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme heat related impacts Sunday/Monday

- Isolated thunderstorms Monday through Thursday

Not much change in the long term forecast. Will continue to see
major to extreme heat impact potential for Monday with 850 temps
over the area remaining very high (in the upper 20s C). Expect high
temperatures 105-110 west with heat index values potentially above
115 for a similar area to where excessive heat warnings are
currently in effect for Saturday.

As we head deeper into next week, the mid-level ridging subsides
south and west some which will allow shortwaves to get closer to
South Texas. This will introduce some low end (20%) rain chances
daily.  Confidence in anything more than that is low with boundaries
most likely stalling north of our area. With this pattern change,
temps will fall back a notch to more like 100-105 west and in the
90s east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR ceilings are currently in place across all terminals, and
this is expected to continue until late this evening into the
overnight hours. Eastern sites will reach MVFR ceilings between
03-06Z with the west expected to experience MVFR ceilings by
11-12Z. By mid to late tomorrow morning, most sites should be back
to VFR with a few lingering MVFR ceilings.

MVFR visibilities remain in place over ALI, COT, and VCT due to
the continued presence of haze. A low chance of some patchy fog
may occur tomorrow morning over all terminals. With the exception
of ALI, visibilities should not decrease below 4 SM.

Winds will once again remain elevated this afternoon with gusts up
to 25 knots. Winds will decrease after sunset before picking back
up again late tomorrow morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Moderate to strong onshore flow is expected through Sunday with a
low chance for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions (winds around
20 knots or greater). Seas are expected to remain around 4-5 feet
today and tonight before increasing to 5-6 feet Sunday. Generally
weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through the upcoming
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    81  97  80  97 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          78  96  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            81 108  82 109 /   0   0  10  10
Alice             78 103  79 101 /   0  10  10  10
Rockport          81  91  81  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           81 107  80 107 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        79 101  80  99 /   0  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       82  92  82  93 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ229-230-
     239>243.

     Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ231>234-244>247-
     342>344-346-347.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ442-
     443.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...KRS/98