559
FXUS64 KCRP 040516
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1216 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for gulf facing beaches
from Baffin Bay to Port OConnor from 9 PM this evening until 1 PM
Tuesday. Tide levels are running approximately 1 foot above normal
which may lead to minor coastal flooding during high tide
overnight into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to Extreme heat risk expected Tuesday for south Texas
- Low chance of thunderstorms in the Rio Grande Plains tonight

500 mb trough is beginning to move to the east with clearing skies
over the Rio Grande Plains and the Brush Country. Diurnal cu have
formed along in the eastern part of the forecast area in the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Thunderstorms are beginning to fire
along the Sierra Madre.

Forecast: For tonight, We will be going into a rather, wash, rinse,
repeat kind of pattern with the murky start of haze, humidity, and
low clouds which break around mid to late morning. As the clouds
clear in the afternoon, convection begins to fire along the Sierra
Madre, and move into the Rio Grande Plains, where they will most
likely fall apart. The chances are best near LRD (20-30% chances),
and fall with time through the Brush Country and Coastal Plains
overnight. Based on the last few nights, think that the storms will
fall apart quickly losing the elevated heat source.

Otherwise, the main concern is the heat. Heat indices in most places
are peaking right around the 110-113 this afternoon, and based on
the past few days, this should be the peak. A few locations may high
115 briefly, but not stay up for 2 hours. Temperatures overnight are
expected to fall to around 80F in the Brush country, and the Rio
Grande Valley. While along the Coastal Plains and the Victoria
Crossroads, low temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 80s.
This leaves the apparent Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s,
especially along the Coastal Bend. So have opted to leave the heat
advisory up overnight. The mid 90s to around 105 for Tuesday`s highs
and the RH values during the time of high temperature of 40-65% will
have many locations from the Coastal Plains and into the Brush
Country with heat values above 115F (40-60% chance). So will expect
some excessive heat that will have to be issued tomorrow morning for
the afternoon. The Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Bend areas
will be in a Heat advisory by then. Looking at the min apparent Ts
Tuesday night, looks like all of that may have to be extended into
Wednesday tomorrow as the apparent temperatures are 85 or better
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Extreme heat related impacts Wednesday through
  Thursday.

- Increased confidence for minor coastal flooding and rip currents
  by the middle of the work week.

Overall, high pressure aloft will maintain control over the region
through most of the Extended range, although a few weak impulses
will be allowed to slide across. Rain chances will remain minimal,
with less than a 20% chance in the forecast Wednesday and again
Monday next week. Otherwise, rain-free conditions will persist
across South Texas.

Very hot and humid conditions will lead to a widespread Moderate to
Extreme risk of heat related illnesses Wednesday through Thursday
this week, and again Monday next week. There is a moderate to high
chance (40-70%) of heat index values meeting or exceeding 115
degrees those days, and Advisories/Warnings are likely to be
required as these conditions transition into the short-term period.
With this in mind, please, plan your outdoor activities carefully
and limit your time outdoors as much as possible. If outside, drink
plenty of non-alcoholic fluids and take frequent breaks from the
heat. Do not leave kids, pets or elderly people unattended in a car.

The threat for minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of rip
currents continues Wednesday through Thursday in response to a
persistent moderate to at times strong onshore flow offshore,
elevated swells and the approach of the new moon. Currently P-ETSS
is indicating tides reaching 2.0-2.2 ft MSL Wednesday and 1.8-2.0 ft
Thursday. Advisories will likely be required especially along the
Gulf-facing beaches south of Port Aransas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Storms in Mexico are diminishing as they move east across the Rio
Grande Plains and are expected to continue to diminish over the
next 2-4 hours. Otherwise, MVFR conditions are expected to prevail
across a majority of S TX through the overnight hours. VFR
conditions resume by mid to late Tuesday morning and continue
through early Tuesday evening before lowering back down to MVFR. A
diurnal trend will also continue with south to southeast winds
gusting up to 25-30 knots in the afternoon and evening, then
decreasing overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight
as an upper level disturbance passes through. Otherwise, a moderate
to occasionally strong southeasterly flow will persist through the
middle of week. Winds will increase over the southern bays and
waters each afternoon, leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Onshore flow gradually weakens through the day Wednesday, becoming
weak to moderate Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  96  82  95 /  10  10  20  10
Victoria          80  95  79  96 /  10   0  30  10
Laredo            80 106  80 107 /  30  10   0  10
Alice             80 102  79 101 /  20  10  20  10
Rockport          82  92  82  91 /  10   0  20   0
Cotulla           80 107  81 105 /  20  20  20  10
Kingsville        81 100  81  99 /  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       84  92  84  91 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ229>231-239>243.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ232>234-
     244>247-342>344-346-347.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...TE/81