Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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257 FXUS64 KCRP 301806 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 106 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Key Messages: - Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today through Friday (northern counties). - Moderate risk of rip currents through Friday. As expected another weak shortwave is transitioning across South Texas this morning leading to a few showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Although the convective activity should remain very isolated over our area through daybreak, a few elevated storms may still be able to develop as there is very high instability and enough moisture in place. Aside from this, only slight PoPs are in the forecast through Friday, although yet another weak impulse is progged to move over Central Texas tonight. Models have been very unreliable over the past several days in regards to the location of the convective development and impact. So, with this in mind, went ahead and capped PoPs at 30% through the period as it seems like the better energy associated to this next disturbance will stay north of the area. Having said that, SPC has maintained a Marginal risk of severe weather across the northern half of the CWA today through Friday. We will continue to monitor for needed updates to the forecast as the system unfold. Temperatures will be a degree or so warmer today and Friday, with highs in the mid 80s to near 101. Maximum heat index values will generally remain below 110, therefore have refrained from issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. However, a few locations may still experience values up to 112-114 over portions of the Coastal Bend, but with a very short duration. Overnight lows will range from the mid 70s to the low 80s areawide. A Moderate risk of rip currents remains in effect through Friday along area beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to Extreme heat related impacts continue this week through the middle of next week. - Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Friday Night Overall, not much change to the long-term forecast. A mid-level ridge will remain parked over Mexico through early next week before amplifying over the Rockies by mid week. A short wave trough will travel around the periphery of this ridge and over South Central Texas Friday Night, skirting across our NE CWA bringing our next chance for convection. With CAPEs progged to be 2500-3000 j/kg and 0- 6km shear around 40 knots, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out. SPC currently has northern portions of our CWA in a Marginal Risk. Will indicate a low chance (20-30%) PoPs for the Friday Night to Saturday morning time period as there is some uncertainty on how far south this system could track. The next shortwave is progged to move across Central Texas Saturday Night. Although some vorticity may drag across our northern CWA a majority of the guidance keeps us dry. Will have to monitor this feature over the next few days for any changes. Otherwise, unseasonably hot, hazy and humid conditions will continue. Afternoon highs will range from the 90-105 degree range. Heat indices will mainly hover between 105-110 the remainder of this week and into next week. Heat advisory conditions will be possible each day next week with a potential for Excessive Heat Warnings Tue or Wed. If you must go outdoors, remember to protect yourself by wearing light colored clothing, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 We continue under the same basic pattern as the last few days for South Texas. Confidence is low for convection to get south enough to affect the region. However, there is some chance (20-30%) for Showers and thunderstorms to move into the northern Brush Country and the Victoria Crossroads. Otherwise, the steady southeast flow will continue over South Texas with the humidity and smoke from the agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America producing haze by day, and occasionally fog overnight. So far, the last couple of nights, the VSBYs and CIGs have remained MVFR. So, the expectation starting this evening would be haze getting into MVFR, and lowering CIGs, then sometime after 06z/Fri fog maybe getting to IFR, but thing mainly MVFR, with the CIGs remaining MVFR overnight. Convection, around 20% chance will be around VCT early Friday morning, before clearing out again for the afternoon, and expect that flight categories go back to VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Generally weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through early next week. Winds will become moderate to occasionally strong over the southern bays and nearshore waters each afternoon. There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 92 81 93 / 10 10 30 20 Victoria 77 91 77 92 / 20 20 30 30 Laredo 79 101 80 102 / 10 0 20 10 Alice 78 96 79 96 / 20 10 30 10 Rockport 80 91 81 91 / 20 10 30 20 Cotulla 79 100 80 100 / 20 10 30 10 Kingsville 80 95 81 94 / 10 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 81 91 83 91 / 20 10 30 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...JSL/86