709
FXUS65 KFGZ 222023
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
123 PM MST Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A dry and breezy weather pattern will remain in place
across northern Arizona through Saturday leading to near critical
fire weather conditions across northeast Arizona. On Sunday, high
pressure will bring lighter winds and a warming trend that is
forecast to persist through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...For the remainder of this afternoon and tonight,
expect a continuation of clear skies and dry weather. Wind speeds
will decrease after 2 pm MST, with low temperatures Thursday
morning ranging from the low-30s to the low-50s at most places.

From Thursday through Saturday, a zonal flow pattern will remain
in place allowing a couple of dry low pressure systems to impact
the area. No precipitation is expected, but breezy southwest winds
and low afternoon humidity will combine to produce near critical
fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday near the Little
Colorado River Valley. At this point, Friday afternoon appears to
have the greatest potential for critical fire weather, with a
30-50% chance of exceeding Red Flag conditions.

On Sunday, high pressure will build over the area leading to a
decrease in wind speeds and a warming trend. By the middle of next
week, northern Arizona may see high temperatures between 5-10
degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 22/18Z through Thursday 23/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions except for local reduced visibility from smoke due to
prescribed burns. Southwest winds 10-20 kts gusting near 25 kts
until around 02Z then becoming light. Southwest winds will develop
again after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/18Z through Saturday 25/18Z...VFR
conditions will persist but with periods of local reduced
visibility in smoke due to prescribed burns. Expect southwest
winds 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts each afternoon with lighter
winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Look for dry conditions with
mild temperatures. Expect southwest winds 5-15 mph gusting near 25
mph today, becoming 10-20 mph gusting near 35 mph on Thursday.
Minimum RH values between 8-18% each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling
temperatures through Saturday. Southwest winds with gusts 30-40 mph
during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter winds
returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20% expected each
afternoon. Near-critical fire weather conditions possible across the
Little Colorado River Valley on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff