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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181622
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I 40. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND STARTS
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THIS SAME AREA HAS
LIFTED INDEX FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM -0.5 TO -2. WE
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER VALUES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40 AND BUMPED
UP POPS A FEW POINTS. WE ARE EXPECTING VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT PRECIP
ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISSUASION...300 AM
A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD TODAY AND
MAINLY ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DAYTIME
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY.

ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS ARIZONA. DAYTIME WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THIS
LOW WILL PLACE ARIZONA UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHICH MEANS THE SPRING WIND MACHINE WILL RETURN IN ERNEST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE 24 HR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 14 KFT MSL
WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH....WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH BASED -TSRA/-SHRA...DISSIPATING BTWN 01-03Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SFC
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR -TSRA/-SHRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
TODAY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTH. THOUGH LESS WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY...SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY
MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. A DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER A
POSSIBILITY.
&&

$$


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL / MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......TEC / MCS
FIRE WEATHER...TEC / MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF