Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 300431

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
931 PM MST Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An increase in moisture will result in a chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains of eastern
Arizona today into Wednesday with just a slight chance elsewhere.
A more stable air mass will move over the state starting Thursday
with the threat for thunderstorms generally ending. Otherwise,
seasonable temperatures will continue with some increase in
afternoon winds on Wednesday and Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...Convective activity has decreased this evening,
although some light showers remain in the White Mountains region.
The current forecast captures these trends well, and no evening
updates are anticipated at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION /337 PM MST/...High pressure continues to
dominate the weather pattern across much of the western U.S. and
will continue to do so through the middle of this week. Overall,
expect seasonably warm temperatures through the week with a chance
of afternoon showers or thunderstorms and increased breezes by
Wednesday and Thursday.

Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over the White
Mountains of eastern Arizona. Some of these storms have produced
outflow winds of around 35 mph. These storms are expected to
persist until early evening before dissipating. This source of
moisture will gradually spread northwest across northern Arizona
over the next 24 hours. We expect shower or thunderstorm activity
to favor the mountains of eastern Arizona through Wednesday, with
a chance for storms extending as far west as about the Flagstaff
region for Tuesday and Wednesday. The biggest storm threat will
continue to be gusty outflow winds and lightning.

A slow moving west coast trough will gradually spread eastward
across the region Wednesday through Thursday delivering breezy
conditions. A drier air mass will spread across the state
Thursday pushing the moisture east of Arizona. A return to mainly
dry conditions is forecast from Thursday into the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue
over northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. After 18Z Tuesday,
expect increasing showers and thunderstorms roughly east of a
Prescott to Page line. The White Mountains region will see the
most storms, with isolated to scattered activity expected
elsewhere. Strong and erratic surface winds will occur in the
vicinity of storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...On Tuesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms
will spread northwest--mainly east of a Prescott-Page line.
Strong outflow winds are possible in the vicinity of storms,
otherwise winds will be light. A cooling trend begins Wednesday
along with another round of showers.

Thursday through Saturday...The cooling trend continues Thursday
along with and a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Drier condtions develop Friday and Saturday as temperatures begin
to trend warmer.






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