Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252154
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF A LINE
FROM PAGE...TO FLAGSTAFF TO PAYSON THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR EAST OF
THIS LINE HAS REALLY LIMITED ACTIVITY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING...HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN AZ
BY MID TO LATE EVENING. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA STARTING TOMORROW...SO A
RETURN TO A MORE STANDARD MONSOON STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VISBY TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN...
KFLG...AND KSEZ. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS...SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST PORTIONS WEST OF KPGA-KINW-KSOW.
TS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER 6Z.  LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISBYS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GUSTY SFC WNDS TO
35KTS LIKELY NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...ML/KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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