Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020545
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1045 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MORE DRY AIR
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
RIM...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARD
SUNRISE.

DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING...THAT AREA WILL BE REFLECTED INTO SUNDAY
WITH FEWER STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COCONINO
AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. AS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40 AND INTO NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...THIS AREA HAS THE BEST MOISTURE
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE 4-CORNERS
AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
4-CORNERS AREA.

FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WERE UPDATE TO REFLECT FEW
STORMS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /349 PM MST/...IT WAS A RATHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR
WESTERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN STORMS ACROSS WESTERN YAVAPAI AND WESTERN COCONINO
COUNTIES.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE
LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 08Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...NO GILA
COUNTY...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THEN DECREASE TOWARD SUNRISE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SCT -SHRA/TSRA
FROM 17Z SUNDAY - 04Z MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS NORTH OF I-40 AND EAST OVER NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING STORM ACTIVITY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/MAS
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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