Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 051602
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST THU MAR 05 2015

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES OVER
THE COMING DAYS. EXPECT WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE A BIT CHILLY BUT NICE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE DAY. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY UPDATES UNTIL THE
NORMAL AFTERNOON UPDATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A COOL AND BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW GOING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA THAT IS
FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL BAJA BY FRIDAY
AND THEN THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD BY LATE
SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWERS OR TWO
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATE ON SATURDAY...MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH NO SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
PRECEDE TO FLATTEN AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL TEND TO INCREASE THE WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND
GUSTS. THE LONG RANGE FORECASTS DIVERGE WITH ONE MODEL SHOWING A
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER WHILE ANOTHER
MODELS INDICATED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY OVER ARIZONA
WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. FOR NOW IT WAS DECIDED TO
STAY WITH A MILD AND DRY FORECAST OUT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT

WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/TC
AVIATION.......KD/MS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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