Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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572
FXUS65 KFGZ 051632
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
932 AM MST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY TO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. EXPECT COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY IS A
TRANSITION DAY TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDY AND
DRY FOR MOST AREAS TODAY THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /238 AM MST/... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A VEIL
OF CIRRUS ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE TO EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE TOWARDS ARIZONA FROM THE WEST. AREA RADAR
VELOCITY PRODUCTS SHOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS ALREADY SSE AROUND
40KTS. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR WESTERN ARIZONA LOOKS GOOD
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-35 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH
EXPECTED. A MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER, AND ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS
COCONINO COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO 7000 FT OR JUST BELOW AT TIMES WHICH INCLUDES
FLAGSTAFF.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS ARE MOVING THE LOW EAST OF STATE WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO 7500 FT OR HIGHER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE, DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING.

MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY TO WARMER AND DRY WEATHER. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...DECREASING BUT STILL REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BELOW 6000 FEET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-012-015.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ105-108-109-
112>114-118-137-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/DL
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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