Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 272143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
243 PM MST TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system currently over southwestern
Arizona will gradually move northward through Thursday. Expect
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across northern
Arizona through Thursday then decreasing on Friday. Dry air is
forecast to move in over the weekend. Near normal temperatures
will continue.


Water vapor loop shows the weak upper low centered over
southwestern AZ this afternoon and we are finally seeing some
widely scattered and light convection developing in Apache county
this afternoon. The upper low to gradually move northward across
Arizona through Thursday. For tonight we have scaled back precip
chances as most recent models show southeast flow to persist in a
rather stable airmass.

Wednesday through Thursday night...Winds aloft to become
southerly on Wednesday with a decent moisture plume moving
northward into AZ. We are expecting greater precip coverage
Wednesday and Thursday due to the moisture increase. The best
chance for thunderstorms should be from the afternoon into the
early evening hours in response to peak daytime heating and

Friday through Tuesday. Progs in good agreement showing dry air
moving in from the west on Friday. Kept the slight chance of
showers in for this transition period. From Friday night onward
dry weather is expected with occasional high clouds streaming
across the northland.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...look for Widely scattered -SHRA
 and isolated -tsra through 12Z weds...then scattered -SHRA/-TSRA
spreading northward through the day. MVFR conditions possible in
heavier storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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