Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 291700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1000 AM MST MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry conditions are forecast today. Monsoon
moisture will start to slowly return to northeastern Arizona by
Tuesday, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast across the region through the remainder of the work


.DISCUSSION...The subtropical ridge remains along 28N Lattitude,
well south of a favorable moisture tap position for the summer
Monsoons. An extention of the ridge pushes northward into Nevada
this morning keeping much of northern Arizona in a dry to low
grade Monsoon pattern through Tuesday. The areas that will see
convection today and tomorrow will be limited to northeastern
Arizona and the Mogollon Rim where enough moisture will sneak in
across the New Mexico border for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The morning forecast grids look good no updates.



By Tuesday, moisture is progged to begin to nose northwestward over
the White Mountains and along the Mogollon Rim. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop by the afternoon
hours, primarily along the Mogollon Rim south of I-40 and over the
Chuska Mountains. Given the weak shear and instability parameters,
these storms should remain below severe limits.

Moisture will continue to increase across northern Arizona on
Wednesday and Thursday. As a result, expect at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms across much of the region each afternoon.
In addition, this will lead to a slight cooling trend, with daytime
temperatures dropping to around 5 degrees below normal by Thursday.

Beginning Friday, a West Coast Trough will cause a dry
southwesterly flow to set up across northern Arizona. This will
cause decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each day
through the weekend.


.AVIATION...Expect mostly VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.
The White Mountains region will see isolated MVFR in brief
thunderstorm activity. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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