Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION....WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE UTAH BORDER REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
ADVANCE UPON NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST A
DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING ABOVE 550 MB...BUT THIS DOES NOT EQUATE
TO AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. IN GENERAL...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION...AND ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO ARIZONA
WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AND WILL START A SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND WARMING TREND
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW TRANSITING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY THAT MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE UTAH
BORDER REGION. WE HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE SUNDAY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCT -SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z MAINLY SOUTH OF A
KPAN-KSJN LINE AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
-SHRA/TSRA ELSEWHERE. -SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHING AFT 03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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