Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282217
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
317 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WORK WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...LEADING TO MOSTLY RAINFALL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
WIND SPEEDS. THE WINDIEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 MPH. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A CUT OFF
LOW...FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EAST PACIFIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF MODEL
HAS TRENDED TOWARD BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...WHICH MORE
CLOSELY MATCH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. BOTH
OPERATIONAL RUNS PULL WARM...MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION
THAT WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AND MOSTLY RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS...I ONLY MADE MINOR INCREASES TO THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
PERIODS.

FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...A RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND BREEZY AFTER 17Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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