Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 302227

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
327 PM MST SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a cooling trend and continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend as monsoonal
moisture returns to the area. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing localized heavy rains, hail and gusty winds throughout
the next week as the monsoon looks to remain over the area into
next weekend.


.UPDATE...Scattered thunderstorms are developing this afternoon
over the higher terrain of northern AZ. Storms have been mostly
outflow driven with a few pulse severe storms. Showers and storms
should spread into the lower elevations through the afternoon and
evening hours with a few severe storms remaining possible. Heavy
rain, hail, and strong winds will all be possible.

On Sunday the mean flow becomes northerly with mean storm motion
from north to south. This will favor storms moving into the lower
elevations south of the Mogollon Rim late in the day. Temperatures
will continue to cool a few degrees.

Monsoon moisture remains over the area through next week
resulting in daily thunderstorm activity. Typical thunderstorm
threats of heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds can be expected.


.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue across northern Arizona thru the 24hr TAF
period, especially over the higher terrain and more numerous after
18Z Sunday. MVFR and brief IFR conditions in the stronger storms can
be anticipated. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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