Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 091653

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
953 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably warm weather will continue through the
upcoming weekend. Expect periods of clouds with breezy conditions
developing on Saturday. Predominantly dry and mild weather will
persist into the middle of next week.


Short-term forecast with warm and dry conditions remains on track
with no major updates anticipated this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /340 AM MST/...Weak ridging will be over the
region today into Saturday bringing periods of mainly mid and high
level clouds along with seasonably warm temperatures. A weak wave
expected to move through the Great Basin on Saturday will bring
increased wind to northern Arizona lasting through Saturday night.
The wave moves through the four corners region late Saturday night
through Sunday. There will be enough upslope flow and low level
moisture to generate low clouds and perhaps some drizzle or very
light precipitation. Have added very low precip chances to this
period over the high terrain from Flagstaff north.

Dry and mild weather under continued zonal flow persists through
the middle of next week. Operational model runs show the potential
for a colder trough to move into the southwest by Friday of next
week but confidence is still low at this point. Will maintain a
chance of showers and a trend toward cooler temperatures.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z forecast...Some lingering low clouds may
cause periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings in northwest Coconino County
through 20Z, including KGCN. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
throughout the day. After 05Z Saturday, another round of low cloud
may cause periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings once again across
northwest Coconino County. This would include KGCN, and to a
lesser extent, KFLG. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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