Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291644
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
943 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
WILL LEAD TO GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE PROBABLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STORM EVOLUTION TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...WITH STEERING FLOW MOVING THE STORMS WHICH FORM OVER
THE RIM TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVER YAVAPAI...WESTERN
COCONINO...AND GILA COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE STRONGEST...ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY MOTION. LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS WELL AS MATURE CONVECTION FROM
THE EAST MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES TO NOTE FROM YESTERDAY IS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FROM THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING...AND INCREASED TROPOSPHERIC
SHEAR PROJECTED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCEMENT IN THE INTENSITY OF LOCAL STORMS TODAY...WITH MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS
TODAY...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKING GOOD AND ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /344 AM MST/...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CONTINUING ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ACTIVITY HAVING CEASED FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
OUR NORTHERN AZ FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO TODAY
TO BE RATHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST INTO THE VALLEYS OF
YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ THOUGH. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING..AND WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

WITH ONLY GRADUAL AND MODEST SHIFTS IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE...DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN FIRST AND
EXPANDING TO THE VALLEYS. STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE WEST WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 40+ KTS AND MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS.
SOME STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LESS TENDENCY
TOWARD STRONG WIND GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH MONSOON MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING. AS A RESULT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH GREATER
COVERAGE NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40. STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS AND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN CONCERNS NEAR ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR A BIT HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/BAK
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM/AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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