Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282218
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
318 PM MST THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...AND EVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA CAUSING CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH RIM OF THE GRAND
CANYON. FORCING AND INSTABILITY HAVE COMBINED TO CAUSE SCATTERED
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, TO
DEVELOP ACROSS COCONINO, YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES. THE LOWEST REPORT OF SNOW OCCURED AT THE SOUTH RIM OF
THE GRAND CANYON AT ABOUT 6600 FEET. IN ADDITION, STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES,
WHERE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BLOWN IN THE 35 TO 45
MPH RANGE.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, EXITING NORTHERN ARIZONA
FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE LOW TRACK AND DECREASING
INSTABILITY, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SNOW LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ONLY OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THE FIRST ONE AND SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 7500
FEET FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE AND HAS AMPLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA.

ON MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW CAUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ON TUESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
AND EVEN ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN
SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FT MSL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING 30 KTS THROUGH 02Z.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING WEST AT 10-20 KTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. NOT MUCH OF A BREAK ON
SATURDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA.
LOOK FOR COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH A BIT STRONGER
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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