Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 142310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
410 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will bring unsettled weather to
northern Arizona through Monday. Precipitation chances increase
across the area into tonight, then slowly decrease from west to
east through Monday. Fair weather should return on Tuesday, with
an active pattern returning for the end of the week.


.DISCUSSION...We have a challenging scenario for this evening.
During the afternoon today, snow levels from the rim country
through Flagstaff and up toward the Utah state line have in places been
an estimated 1000 feet lower than numerical models have forecast
it, but not consistently so. For one thing, convective processes
have locally allowed some accumulating snow beneath convective
cells where rain was falling all around them. Where persistent
moderate precipitation has fallen, snow levels have also been able
to lower. All this to say, much of the elevation range between
6500-7500 feet has observed rain or a rain/snow mix through the
day today (including Bellemont), but a few locations have observed
accumulating snow of 1-2" or so, with a couple of locations such
as just west of Clints Well observing snow accumulations up to 4".

Regarding this evening, we expect similar conditions to those
observed during the day today, but with snow levels gradually
falling as the low center moves over Sonora and heights decrease.
Snow amounts at any one location in the 6500-7500 foot range are
quite uncertain given the variability in snow levels, but at least
an inch or two of accumulation is expected from the Mogollon Rim
into the White Mountains above 6500-7000 feet. Please prepare for
winter driving conditions in the high country through tonight. Greater
amounts are forecast in the White Mountains, Chuska Mountains, San
Francisco Peaks, and Kaibab Plateau above about 8000 feet. A
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the White Mountains
through Sunday night.

Sunday, the closed low is forecast to move into far west Texas.
Primarily daytime rain and snow showers are forecast, with light
amounts on average though a few locations could see an additional
2-4". Below average temperatures continue. Additional rain and
snow showers are forecast on Monday, primarily along the eastern
Mogollon Rim and over the White Mountains.

A break in the action is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as
heights rise in association with a short wave ridge. Mainly clear
conditions are expected with temperatures near to slightly above
average. By Thursday, medium range models agree that the pattern
becomes active again with multiple troughs beginning to affect
northern Arizona. The first is forecast to move through on
Thursday night, with the next expected sometime in the Friday-
Saturday time frame. Plentiful moisture will be associated with
these disturbances, as well as successively colder temperatures.
Late next week is a time period to watch closely.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect scattered to numerous rain
and mountain snow showers over the next 24 hrs producing areas of
MVFR to IFR conditions. Snow levels will range from around 6000 ft
MSL near the UT border to around 8500 ft MSL in the White Mountains
region. ISOLD TSRA/TSSN possible until 12Z generally south of a KIGM-
KFLG-KSOW line. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday FOR AZZ017.




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