Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222153
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 PM MST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
NEARS THE NORTHLAND. FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING TOWARDS
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT IS STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST AZ. THE SCATTERED CU AND OVERCAST CIRRUS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON ARE MOVING EAST WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT PEAK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES.

THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
PROGS ARE BETTER TIMING AGREEMENT AND SHOW THIS SYSTEM CROSSING OUR
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST AZ AND ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS COULD BE AS LOW AS 6000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING WEST OF A PAGE
TO PAYSON LINE. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
OUT...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER AND SUGGESTING A COLD AND SHOWERY SUNDAY
AND LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING DRY AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT 15-30 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 KTS UNTIL SUNSET. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5-15 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO
10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CHECK THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR DETAILS. ON WEDNESDAY...BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH CONDITIONS TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VALUES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE DRY
BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH ARIZONA WITH INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&
$$

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ105>114-140.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ004>007-
009>016-039-040.

&&
$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION
VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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