Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
238 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to strengthen over Arizona
through this Holiday weekend. Daytime temperatures will warm
enough today, Thanksgiving, and Friday to challenge long standing
high temperature records. Cooler and breezy conditions are
expected early next week.


.DISCUSSION...An unseasonably strong area of high pressure over
the southwest United States will bring record or near-record
daytime temperatures today through the weekend. Dry conditions
persist, with only occasional high-level cloudiness. Winds will
remain light.

By Monday, models are in fair agreement that a trough passing
north of the state will push a cold front through the region, with
strong winds possible along and ahead of the front. Latest
operational runs would indicate temperatures falling to near or
below normal by Tuesday. GFE ensembles show spread in the trough
timing with quite a few of the runs slower (moving the trough
into the area 24+ hours later). Due to the uncertainty, we only
cooled temperatures a few degrees Tuesday with this morning`s
package. Of more importance, any significant moisture looks to
stay north of the state, with little hope for precip through the
7-10 day forecast.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions with
clearing skies today. Local IFR conditions will be possible in the
early morning hours at KGCN due to smoke from a nearby burn.
Locally breezy NE winds will continue today. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...The persistent pattern of dry and unseasonably warm
weather with generally light winds will continue through Saturday as
strong high pressure builds over the state. Daytime temperatures are
on a warming trend through Friday, with highs becoming 15 to 20
degrees above normal. High temperature records may be set Wednesday
through Friday. Southwesterly winds will begin to increase by Sunday.






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