Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031125
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
425 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH LOWER
STORM CHANCES CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW
WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF KEEPS MOISTURE MUCH
MORE LIMITED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
FAVORABLE TO RETURNING STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
OBSERVE MODEL FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A
PAYSON-WINSLOW-KAYENTA LINE. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
PRIMARY CONCERNS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL IFR IN MOD/HVY RAIN AND
GUSTY STORM OUTFLOWS TO 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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