Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
359 AM MST Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Windy and cooler conditions are forecast across
northern Arizona on Friday. Less wind and a warming trend are
expected this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
Slight chances for afternoon thunderstorms start Monday in the
White Mountains and expand eastward for Tuesday.


Dry and windy weather will continue today as the broad trough of
low pressure encompassing much of the western U.S gradually
rotates through the Great Basin today. Winds have remained breezy
overnight with some locations such as Springerville with winds
already near advisory levels. These areas of local strong winds
will become more prevalent after sunrise. Have kept the wind
advisory starting at 8 am for the White Mountains as gusts in the
40 to 50 MPH range become more likely later this morning and into
the afternoon hours.

The Red Flag warning remains in effect for Today across the Little
Colorado River Valley, central Navajo County, and Apache
County due to strong winds and low RH values. By Saturday, the
trough axis finally moves through Arizona while high pressure
builds in quickly from the west. Pressure gradients weaken
substantially allowing for much lighter winds over the weekend.
Temperatures will also climb back to above average as the ridge
begins to move into the region.

Some moisture is expected to sneak into Arizona from the east by
early next week introducing the chance for afternoon thunderstorms
each day. Confidence remains low concerning how far west the
moisture and associated thunderstorms will spread, this will be
something to watch over the coming days.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will continue over
northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. Southwesterly wind gusts
will increase again by 16Z with gusts 30-35 knots possible this
afternoon...winds will decrease after 03Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Windy and cooler conditions will develop
today. Critical fire weather conditions will develop over the Little
Colorado River Valley, central Navajo County, and Apache County this
afternoon.  Winds will subside substantially Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
Sunday. There is a chance for thunderstorms over Apache County
Monday, with better chances for thunderstorms over all of northern
Arizona Tuesday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening FOR AZZ111-113-114-140.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ014-017.




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