Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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016 FXUS63 KGLD 210737 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 137 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms possible through the remainder of the overnight for areas east of Highway 83 along the Kansas and Nebraska border. - Temperatures in northeast Colorado will fall into the upper 30s Wednesday night and Thursday morning, where some patchy frost is possible. - Scattered thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon and evening east of Highway 25 along a dry line. While severe storms are not currently expected, stronger storms may produce small hail. - A cold front Thursday night will be accompanied by northwest winds gusting up to 55 mph. - For the holiday weekend, expecting a chance for storms both Saturday and Sunday, with severe storms possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024 Another shortwave trough will move through this morning on the heels of the exiting system. It will bring another round of light precipitation as it moves from northeast Colorado to southwest Nebraska between 12z and 18z. Additional rainfall amounts this morning will generally be between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, highest amounts in southwest Nebraska. Expect a break in precipitation this afternoon as well as some sun with highs in the 60s to lower 70s far south. Another shortwave will move out of Colorado late this afternoon and tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop first along the Palmer Divide late this afternoon, spreading into the remainder of the area this evening, then ending late. Instability will be very limited and no severe storms are expected. Another tenth to a quarter of an inch of QPF can be expected, this time highest amounts in Colorado. As skies clear overnight, low temperatures will range from the upper 30s in Colorado to the upper 40s in Hill City. Wednesday will see zonal flow aloft and dry conditions during the day. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s with light winds. A weak wave comes out of Colorado Wednesday night with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Instability remains extremely limited and no severe storms are expected. Precipitation amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. Low temperatures will ranged from the lower 40s in northeast Colorado the lower 50s in Hill City. Thursday will transition to southwest flow aloft with the next shortwave trough arriving in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm well into the 80s. Surface pattern shows a dry line developing and will be the focus for convective initiation Thursday afternoon in eastern portions of the area. East of the dry line there will be moderate instability with SBCAPE between 1000-2000 j/kg. However, deep layer shear is fairly low at only 15-20 kts. While showers and thunderstorms appear likely, the lack of shear will likely result in pulse storms with only a marginal risk of small hail. Showers and thunderstorms continue in the east Thursday night, with a cold front surging south Thursday evening. Models show breezy to windy northwest winds with the front: the ECMWF is gusting 50-55 mph while the GFS is gusting 40-45 mph. Given the recent precipitation, don`t expect blowing dust to be an issue. Models show between a quarter and a half inch of QPF in eastern areas Thursday night. Winds and precipitation gradually diminish overnight with low temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to the lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024 Temperatures will cool off again on Friday behind the cold front with highs in the low to mid 70s. A weak wave will come out of Colorado in the zonal flow Friday night. However, there is little moisture return and instability is minimal, so no severe storms are expected. Precipitation amounts expected to be around a tenth of an inch. Lows will be in the 40s. For the holiday weekend, temperatures will be in the 70s on Saturday and around 80 on Sunday. There will be chance for showers and thunderstorms both days as a couple of systems move through in the active pattern. Weak to moderate instability is forecast on Saturday with plentiful deep layer shear of around 50 kts. On Sunday, a cold front moves through in the afternoon with moderate instability ahead of it. Deep layer shear is a bit weaker at around 30-40 kts. Hard to rule out severe storms either day given those parameters. On Monday, will transition to northwest flow aloft as an upper low moves from the northern plains into Missouri. Should be dry assuming the models are right with the track of the upper low. It will also be breezy with both the ECMWF and GFS showing northwest winds gusting over 40 mph. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 GLD: IFR-LIFR conditions associated with low ceilings are expected after midnight (~06Z). While convection cannot be ruled out at the beginning of the TAF period, the latest high resolution convection allowing guidance.. and ongoing radar trends.. suggest that activity will likely remain ~20-30 miles north of the GLD terminal. Ceilings are anticipated to gradually lift/improve to VFR late Tue morning and early Tue afternoon. Variable winds will abruptly shift to the NNW-NW and strengthen to 20-30 knots within a few hours of sunrise (as a lee cyclone over western KS progresses eastward into central KS). Breezy NNW-NW winds will persist through late morning to early afternoon.. decreasing by mid-late afternoon. MCK: Expect conditions to rapidly deteriorate ~07-08Z as severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds progress eastward from Hitchcock County into Red Willow County. Episodic showers and storms are possible throughout the day on Tuesday. 10-15 knot NNE-NE winds will shift to the NNW- NW and increase to 15-25 knots within a few hours of sunrise (as a lee cyclone in western KS progresses eastward into central KS and NE).. persisting through the day on Tue. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ early this morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...BV