Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST SATELLITE
AND WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL LONE COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUING OVER RED WILLOW AND FURNAS COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA...SLOWLY
SLIDING INTO NORTON COUNTY KANSAS. A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO LATEST WV
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

OVERALL...ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY QUIET WEEKEND WEATHER-WISE BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY. HOT WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEARING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.

BEGINNING WITH TODAY...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALREADY NOTED LOWERED VISIBILITIES
NEAR SCOTT CITY WITH OAKLEY NEAR SATURATION. ANY FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES RISE
RAPIDLY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IN COLORADO AS WELL
AS POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DRIFTING IN AS WITH RECENT
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR TOMORROW...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ANTICIPATED. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH
A SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECENT BUMP IN DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
NEAR THIS AXIS.

CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TODAY`S SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE BETTER WITH 30-40 KTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY`S 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INDICATES 20-30 KTS SO STORM
ORGANIZATION MAY BE WORSE SUNDAY. ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT FROM WEAK
WINDS ALOFT INDICATE HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS REMAIN STATIONARY.

A HEIGHTENED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHILE MOST SIGNAL A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST COLORADO...SLOWLY TRAVERSING THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...THIS IS THE BEST RAIN CHANCE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE SO ANTICIPATE COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK 700MB TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD
MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SCATTERED DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LOOKING INTO
SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM TUES TO FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KMCK OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS



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