Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 222021
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
221 PM MDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

A weather disturbance is forecast to move across much of the area
from the southwest later this afternoon through much of the
overnight hours. Some gusty outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall
will be the primary threats. Breezy southerly winds expected to
continue through midnight before slowly decreasing and veering to
the southwest and west (along/west of the CO/KS border) ahead of an
approaching front. Low temperatures should range from the mid 50s to
near 60 in far eastern Colorado with low to upper 60s east of the
border.

For Tuesday the back end of expected precipitation will just about
clear the far east and northeast parts of the area around sunrise
with a mostly sunny sky the rest of the day. There may be an
isolated thunderstorm along the front generally centered from
Trenton to Goodland and Tribune during the afternoon. High
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 west with low to mid 90s
elsewhere expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Tuesday Night through Thursday...Main forecast concern for the
period will be placement and impacts related to strong frontal
boundary that will likely be to the south of the area during the
period. While the position of large scale features seems to have a
large degree of agreement with respect to latest forecasts...details
impacting sensible wx seem to show a large degree of variability
evident in SREF plumes of temperature with 30 degrees separating the
coolest and warmest members on Wednesday...with EKDMOS showing a
similar (20 F) spread between 10 and 90th percentiles. With this
data in mind...overall temperature forecast will be rather low
confidence as highly variable elements like the degree of cloud
cover will play a large role in observed values.

CWA will most likely start period in post frontal/upslope flow
regime with persistent CAA from the east. Am a little unsure of
magnitude of cold air as a lot of it appears driven by diabatic
processes along front...but good agreement on overall pattern. PV
fields indicate short wave trough will slide over the area on
Tuesday Night and Wednesday and while static stability does appear
somewhat low...elevated condensation pressure deficits call into
question whether any parcels would become saturated to take
advantage of lift. That being said...enough support to at least
warrant chance pops on Wednesday morning and will focus things in
eastern cwa where H7 frontal zone may focus mesocale ascent in
presence of aforementioned instability. Precipitation should move
to the south and diminish through the afternoon and evening.
Chance for showers will remain along periphery of cwa through
Thursday...but expect bulk of precipitation to be south and west
of area.

In the extended (Thursday Night- Monday)...Weather pattern will
remain active across the area through the period as CWA remains on
periphery of southeast CONUS ridge with a series of weak short wave
impulses moving through the flow. As sfc low/trough develops over
the start of the period may see gusty southerly winds during the
afternoon on Friday and Saturday which will be key in provided
needed moisture return for convective development and potential
strength of storms. GEFS ensemble plumes support at least a marginal
risk of a severe storm or two Friday night with 1000-1500 J/Kg of
CAPE and around 30kts of shear in most plumes. With large amount of
uncertainty in the closer periods...hard to get to confident in the
details at this point and kept bulk of forecast near mean values.
Aside from periodic storm chances expect a gradual warming trend
through the forecast and high temps climbing into the 90s again by
Monday as H5 ridge begins to amplify.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
There is a possibility of mvfr cigs and vis as a weather
disturbance moves across the area from the southwest this evening
through the overnight hours. For KGLD best possibility of
thunderstorms is in the 3z-7z timeframe while at KMCK its in the
7z-11z timeframe. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are the
primary threats. Otherwise expect strong southerly winds through
early evening. For KGLD winds veer around to the southwest by 11z
then west around 10kts by 17z. For KMCK winds remain south or
southeast.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99



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