Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 202041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
141 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Issued at 1117 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

The remainder of the dense fog advisory has expired.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

updated forecast to trim off additional areas of the dense fog
advisory where visibilities have improved.

UPDATE Issued at 505 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

After taking another look at wet-bulb zero heights and snowfall
probabilities, decided to extend the mention of snow into the
early afternoon. With temperatures warming into the low 40s, the
snow should change to rain by mid afternoon. However if the cloud
cover keeps temperatures a few degrees cooler than forecast this
may not happen. Am not expecting more than a few tenths of an inch
of snowfall in the afternoon before changing to rain.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Latest satellite and upper air analysis show a short wave ridge over
the Tri-State Area with another short wave trough approaching from
the west.  Between the two features was a band of snow, with some
moderate to heavy snow reported in the mountains.  At the surface
the trough was near the CO/KS border.  Along and east of the trough
visibilities ranged from a quarter mile to unrestricted.

Today the fog will follow a similar pattern to yesterday of
dissipating by late morning.  Some locations will have a glaze of
ice due to the freezing fog.  The approaching snowfall may cause
visibilities along the CO/KS border to improve sooner than forecast.

Meanwhile expect the band of snowfall to move into the area before
sunrise following a band of frontogenesis. The band of
frontogenesis will move north across the area this morning. As
the day progresses the upper level short wave trough will deepen
over the Tri-State Area. As it deepens WAA and speed convergence
on the west side of the trough will cause lift to increase.
Theta-e lapse rates will fall to around zero across the forecast
area, so there could be some convective driven precipitation in
the afternoon. The higher chances for precipitation will be in the
afternoon, moving in from the west.

Based on wet-bulb zero heights, the precipitation may remain as all
snow into the afternoon.  However, am thinking the early afternoon
temperatures of around 40 degrees should cause the snow to change to
rain.  During the afternoon the higher precipitation amounts are
expected, so if the precipitation does not change over to rain, some
small accumulations of snow can be expected.  Am not anticipating
any freezing rain due to the temperatures quickly warming above the
freezing point.

This evening precipitation chances will decline as the now closed
low moves northeast and the WAA and speed convergence shift out of
the Tri-State Area.  Any lingering precipitation will be northeast
of the Tri-State Area by midnight.

The surface trough will be pushed east of the Tri-State Area this
evening as the closed low lifts northeast.  Due to the surface
trough east of the area, am not expecting any fog to develop during
the night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

The beginning of the extended period will start off dry with normal
temperatures. As early next week approaches there is a storm system
that is going to move through the High Plains. This will bring
precipitation chances to the region.

Saturday night has a trough moving through the region, with the main
cut off low south of the CWA. Little to no precipitation is expected
from this system. There could potentially be a small area of
rain/snow in our far southern counties.

Sunday through Monday afternoon have a ridge over the region. Dry
conditions are expected with increases in winds Sunday afternoon as
upper level northwest flow moves over the area. Late Monday
afternoon will start to see the eastern edge of the next storm
system (which will continue through late Tuesday night). Once the
trough begins to push into the CWA, southwest flow will begin to
bring moisture into the CWA. Guidance over the past few days has
trended the trough more and more north. A cut off low is expected to
form just east of the Rockies and since the system looks move more
north, high precipitation chances are diminishing. There is still
potential for rain and snow chances over the majority of the region,
but the current forecast only shows measurable snowfall over the
northernmost counties in the CWA. This system will need to be
monitored as early next week approaches

Wednesday and Thursday will continue to be under a deep trough. This
will keep high temperatures down in the 30s; dry conditions are
expected. Friday will see a change in upper level flow as a large,
amplified ridge moves east and brings north, northwest flow to the
region. This will help bring temperature back to normal.

Temperatures for the period will be normal Sunday and Monday with
high temperatures in the 40s. Tuesday through Thursday will drop into
the 30s, possibly lower depending on the exact track of the low and
snowfall. This is due to the previously mentioned trough and
precipitation that is showing to impact the region, as well as a
cold frontal passage on Monday night/Tuesday. Friday will increase
back into the 40s for the majority of the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1027 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

GLD will start out VFR and transition to MVFR due to lower
ceilings as light rain spreads across the area and continues
through about 03Z. VFR conditions are expected to return after 03Z
with skies clearing out after 14Z on Saturday.

MCK will start out IFR due to low ceilings with LIFR possible
intermittently through 20Z. After 20Z...isolated rain showers are
possible along with VFR conditions. Skies will be clearing after




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