Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172130
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 122 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Gusty winds are starting to decrease. The wind/rh
combination very near critical fire weather conditions along and
west of the Colorado/Kansas border. As stated above fortunately
the winds are decreasing/relative humidity is coming up.
Temperatures have warmed up a little more than had previously
expected with not much cooling from yesterday for some location.
McCook has already set a new daily record.

For tonight...winds will have dropped significantly by the
beginning of the period. Winds go light north to light and
variable during the night. With more winds last night temperatures
still went below superblend. Considering the low dewpoints and
lack of wind, I lowered the mins from the previous forecast. One
caveat is that some increase in mid/high level cloud cover is
expected.

For Saturday...winds will start out light and variable with
surface ridge near/over the area at the beginning of the day.
Winds slowly shift to the southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Consmos has
been doing well with the temperatures recently and has them
warmer than previous forecast. Considering the lack of mixing and
cloud cover holding back heating a little, went a little below
that.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Main focus will be the potential for strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, and the drastic weather
change Thursday and Friday.

Late Saturday night into Sunday morning a warm front will move
through the Tri-State Area.  Behind the front dew points will
increase.  The resulting moisture advection will lead to fog
developing east of a developing dry line.  Visibilities down to a
mile are likely.

Sunday morning the fog will end by mid to late morning from west to
east.  Winds will be breezy during the afternoon as a low level jet
mixes down.

Sunday afternoon a dry line will setup somewhere near the CO/KS
border.  The last four GFS model runs have the dry line further east
near Highway 25, while the last 7 NAM model runs have the dry line
either just east or just west of the CO/KS border.  ECMWF is in-line
with the NAM as well.  Base on this am thinking the GFS dry line is
too far east and side more with the ECMWF/NAM.  With an upper level
short wave trough moving over the dry line am anticipating storm
activity to start along the dry line. Storms will move north at 50-
60 MPH, but the activity will shift east with dry line.  The primary
threat will be damaging wind due to the storms moving so fast, with
a second threat being large hail. The best instability will be
during the evening as dew points in the environment increase.

Sunday evening storm activity will continue to shift east across the
Tri-State Area ahead of the dry line.  The best opportunity for a
severe thunderstorm will be in the evening as elevated CAPE
increases with the increasing dew points.  Main threat during the
evening will be large hail.  Any storm activity will be east of the
Tri-State Area by midnight ahead of a weak cold front moving
through.  Some rainfall may develop over the northwest part of the
Tri-State Area behind the front where wrap around moisture/lift
glances the forecast area.

Monday morning there may be some lingering rainfall over the
northwest part of the forecast area from the wrap around
moisture/lift.

Attention then shifts to the drastic weather change Thursday and
Friday as another storm system moves across the Plains.  The latest
GFS/ECMWF have both trended more north and weaker with this storm
system than their previous run.  This means less favorable odds for
precipitation and somewhat weaker winds.  However still looks like
winter will return behind the cold front that will move through
Thursday into Thursday evening.  Behind the front northwest winds
will quickly increase gusting to 40 MPH or higher.  The winds should
decline Friday night. Rain may develop ahead of the front then
change to snow behind the front. Wind chills Thursday night will
fall into the single digits, remaining there well into Friday
morning.  Due to the fast pace of the storm system and its
trajectory from the west, am anticipating low snowfall accumulations
with it.  Don`t have much confidence at this time to be more
specific than that. Precipitation may be questionable with this
system, but have high confidence of windy conditions behind the cold
front.  Current highs/lows may be too warm if the cold front moves
through earlier on Thursday.

These wet, cold conditions will be very hard on newborn livestock
born during this time.

On a side note, the last 4-6 or so runs of the ECMWF and GFS show a
closed upper level trough forming over the central part of the CONUS
Thursday/Friday.  Question is where will it form.  If it closes off
either over the Tri-State Area or to the west, this will be more
favorable for precipitation and stronger winds than closing off to
the east.  The further north the system becomes a closed low the
less likely precipitation will be for the Tri-State Area.

Beyond the forecast the cooler but more normal temperatures may
remain into the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. North winds near
20 knots with gusts near 27 knots are expected at both sites
through the afternoon before decreasing near sunset. After that
the winds will become light and variable through tomorrow with a
shift toward southeast during the mid morning hours on Saturday.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER



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