Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 090828
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A BREAK FROM THE HEAT TODAY...BUT NOT FOR LONG. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COURTESY A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TOMORROW A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO.
EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
EXPECT BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY...BUT SOME CLOUDS FROM THE
MORNING STRATUS DECK BREAKING UP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.
STILL...SHOULD BE MAINLY A MAINLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FOUR DAYS...IN THE LOW 80S...DUE
TO COOLER AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C.

TONIGHT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE IN THE
DAY AND MOVE EAST...BUT BASED ON THE MORNING CONVECTION-ALLOWING
GUIDANCE AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH THE CWA. DO EXPECT SOME
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 60...WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. WINDS WILL RELAX

TOMORROW...MUCH WARMER WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE
HEAT RETURNS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY BRING IN WARMER AIR. WITH FULL SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S MAX TEMPS COULD REACH THE MID
90S OR SO. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT WARMER FROM LOW
TO MID 90S...SO HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST BY 2-3 DEGREES TO THE MID 90S. AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH...15 TO 20 KTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING OF THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING
MAY NOT BE WELL-TIMED FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS UNTIL THE EVENING. BY
THE AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE...PLENTY CAPABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HODOGRAPHS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
AROUND 40KTS WITH A GOOD COMBINATION OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR.  SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK CAP AROUND/ABOVE
700MB...WHICH SHOULD HOLD OFF WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE BEST
LARGE SCALE FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 00Z. STILL...DECIDED TO INCLUDED
ISOLATED T-STORM POPS AS EARLY AS 18Z FOR EASTERN COLORADO FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH. THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP
SHOULD HOLD OFF DEVELOPMENT...BUT SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
INCLUDING STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT STRONG
T-STORMS...WANTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON HIGH PLAINS WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL
BLOCK THE STRONGER AREAS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK FORCING AT THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTIVITY
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS FOR SATURDAY. THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGH THETA E VALUES AT
THE SURFACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
MODEL FORECASTS DEPICT THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING
SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. WITH A LACK OF JET SPEEDS ALOFT...LAYER BULK SHEAR
NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY LOW AND STORM MOTIONS ARE WEAK...WHICH DOES NOT
SEEM TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES ALOFT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
TRI STATE AREA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS IN
THE MID 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. SOUTH
WINDS STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN. THERE MAY BE SOME EARLIER ACTIVITY AROUND KMCK BUT THAT SHOULD
STAY NORTHEAST. MORE CONFIDENT IN CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST AND MOVING IN. STORMS WOULD ARRIVE EARLY EVENING AT KGLD
WITH ARRIVAL A COUPLE HOURS LATER LATER AT KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH







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