Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
524 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Mid-upper level trough will move along the Canadian border with a
weaker shortwave trough passing closer to our CWA. A cold front
stalled near the Nebraska Panhandle should kick south this
afternoon, and thunderstorm coverage should once again increase.
This front is a little slower than previously anticipated, which
allows for a window of heating across our CWA with highs near 100 in
our southeast.

There is uncertainty in regards to coverage as mid-upper level
forcing over our CWA is less organized. Main focus then will be on
cold front where there may be a  narrow corridor of better lift as
this moves through the region. Guidance hasn`t been consistent on
location of best precip signal (though it is generally depicted
along/ahead of cold front). I limited PoPs to chance category during
this update due to uncertainty on how coverage will evolve. Best
instability and shear overlap is shown in our east where there is a
potential for a more organized severe threat. Even on the low end
there is enough instability depicted by models to support at least a
limited severe threat across our entire CWA this afternoon/early
evening. Trend should be towards this activity weakening through the

Sunday-Monday night: Front stalls south of our CWA, with baroclinic
zone lingering in our south through Sunday night. This could act as
a region for shower/thunderstorm redevelopment and some models are
showing this. Coverage will be a question as best instability axis
will be south and there may be a trend towards a mored subsident air
mass from the north. Surface trough redevelops Monday with drier
more stable layer in place to our west, and models showing a limited
precip signal in our afternoon/evening east of the trough axis (our
eastern CWA). Temperatures Sunday and Monday should be near seasonal
normals (maybe a little lower on Sunday).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday: Upper ridge remains in place across the
Plains with H7 trough forming in the lee of the Rockies on Tuesday.
Instability will be in place during the afternoon; however, with
relatively strong subsidence in place from the ridge, it will be
difficult to develop much if any thunderstorm activity. The H5
ridging will flatten a bit as we head into Wednesday, allowing the
troughing to influence the pattern a little more. Chance PoPs are in
the forecast Wednesday afternoon and with MUCAPE approaching 2000
J/Kg, we could see a few strong to severe storms form. Shear is weak
as indicated by the GFS and Canadian; however, the ECMWF is carrying
enough shear to allow for a rotating updraft or two. Highs on
Tuesday and Wednesday will climb into the middle to upper 90s.

Thursday and Friday: Ridge shifts west on Thursday, remaining
relatively flat as it centers over the Four Corners region. Chance
PoPs remain in the forecast as the H7 trough will be slowly moving
northeastward out of the region. Instability will be quite high
during the afternoon as CAPE values quickly increase through the
afternoon, approaching 3000 J/Kg. Shear remains very low with deep
layer shear only about 20 knots. A few strong to severe storms will
be possible with gusty winds and marginally severe hail being the
main risk per the current guidance. As we head into Friday, the H5
ridge strengthens and begins to shift eastward. Northwest flow aloft
will follow a weak cold front that pushes through on Friday.
Thunderstorms will be possible once more Friday afternoon once more
with good instabilty and low shear.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

VFR conditions and winds less than 12kt are expected to prevail
through the TAF period at KGLD and KMCK terminals. Main aviation
concern will be potential for thunderstorms at both terminals with
scattered activity expected to develop my mid afternoon and
potential for strong winds to develop with this activity. There
is still uncertainty with activity impacting terminals, but
there is enough consistency in models to at least introduce
thunder mention to vicinity in the afternoon/early evening.
Further adjustments to timing and any potential impacts at
terminals will need to be made as confidence increases today.




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