Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 272344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
544 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Updated the rainfall chances for this afternoon through mid
morning Saturday based on latest data. Water vapor indicates a
small area of subsidence over the northeast quadrant of the Tri-
State area preventing any storms from developing. The storm
activity so far has been confined to the CO/KS border where
isentropic lift has been developing storms, and over the southern
part of the area along the frontal boundary. Anticipate the storm
activity along the KS/CO border to shift east with the isentropic
lift and weaken as the lift weakens. The storms to the south will
gradually shift to the east with the short wave trough rotating
around the base of the closed low. Am anticipating the storm
activity in this part of the Tri-State area to remain along the
frontal boundary, which will straddle the southeast border of the
area this evening.

Over the northeast quadrant of the Tri-State area, some scattered
storm coverage is expected to develop during the evening as
isentropic lift shifts eastward. However, as mentioned previously,
the lift will diminish as it moves eastward causing storm coverage
to dwindle. Storms should be east of the area around 7 AM CDT.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Upper low will continue it`s slow trek eastward through the
afternoon and into Saturday with PoPs remaining elevated through the
afternoon. There will be enough instability to spark off
thunderstorms through the afternoon. Severe storms across much of
the CWA will be limited for the most part to hail and wind. The
exception will be the far eastern portions of the CWA where a Theta-
E boundary is draped from north to south just east of the upper low.
In this area we could see stronger forcing which could lead to large
hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado. Thunderstorm
activity will slowly move to the east overnight with very weak
shortwave high pressure building in briefly on Saturday. Drier air
will encompass the region on Saturday with PoPs increasing once more
as we head into the overnight hours into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Weak upper ridge will gradually flatten on Sunday as flow becomes
nearly zonal across the CWA. A large longwave trough will move
slowly southward out of Canada as we head over the Monday through
Tuesday time frame. Slight chance to chance PoPs will remain
possible thanks to favorable instability in the region. CAPE values
during the afternoon Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 2000 J/Kg
to 3200 J/Kg range with only modest bulk shear values. Wave of low
pressure will rotate very slowly around the longwave trough through
Thursday with weather remaining largely unsettled through much of
next week. A ridge will build into the western U.S. as we head into
Friday. This ridge will gradually work its way into the region and
dry things out as we head into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

VFR to brief MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. There will be
a brief period of storm activity at KGLD during the first few
hours of the TAF. Ceilings should remain VFR. At KMCK VCTS is
expected for the first hour or so before storms shift well west of
the site. Ceilings could fall to MVFR frequently for the first
few hours of the TAF based on surrounding sites and model data.
Confidence was on the fence as to whether MVFR ceilings would
actually develop or not at KMCK, but hard to argue with MVFR
ceilings at nearby sites. If MVFR does develop, will end by mid


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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