Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 142343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
543 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...a cold front has
moved thru the the region a gusty NW flow currently
reaching near 40 mph for gusts. Mixing with arrival of the
front/winds has not allowed for temps to drop as sharply. They
are currently running in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Eastern zones
still seeing lingering clouds from this morning which has hampered
high temps there. Overall do expect a slow trend down as the
afternoon progresses towards sunset.

Going into tonight...expecting wind gusts potential to remain at
40-50 mph potential into early evening w/ skies clearing out an
surface ridging beginning to work in from the WNW. The decrease
in winds and remaining cloud cover will give most locales decent
radiational cooling allowing for caa to drop overnight lows into
the upper 20s thru the mid 30s. Have upgraded the Freeze Watch to
a Freeze Warning as overnight lows expected to drop into a 29-32F
range. Western zones have already received a hard freeze...while
eastern zones still too warm for a hard freeze.

For Sunday...Freeze Warning will linger into the mid morning
hours before full sunshine lifts area above criteria. Nice day on
tap for the region after a cold morning w/ high pressure in
control. Looking for daytime highs to reach into the lower and
mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

For Sunday night on thru next Friday...the Tri State region will
enjoy a dry period with above normal temps. The week starts off
with models having H5 zonal flow over much of the country...
transitioning to SW flow towards the end of the week as a trough
digs into the Pacific coast.

Going into the beginning of next weekend...the upper trough over
the Pacific coast will have translated into the Rockies w/ a
shift into the Plains region. A lee-side trough accompanies the
upper system bringing a chance for showers...mainly for WNW zones
due to track of lee-side trough that lifts NE as it enters the
central Plains.

During this time the region will see above normal highs ranging
in the 70s...and overnight lows mainly in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the TAF period.
Gusty north northwest winds will continue through about 02Z at
which point the surface winds will begin to decouple as the night
time surface inversion strengthens. This will also produce a
period of LLWS through about 07Z at both locations until the
pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure moves in across the
central high plains overnight. Light winds turning more westerly
after 07Z will continue through the early morning hours and
through the day on Sunday under clear skies.


KS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM MDT /3 AM CDT/ to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/
     Sunday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

NE...Freeze Warning from 2 AM MDT /3 AM CDT/ to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/
     Sunday for NEZ079-080.



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