Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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143
FXUS63 KGLD 210547
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1147 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Area of showers continues to progress toward the forecast area
from the west. Had anticipated the stable environment behind the
outflow boundary that had moved west to end any storm activity.
The activity has weaken but continues eastward. The lift from the
upper level short wave trough must be enough to overcome the
increasing stability to generate some rainfall. The rainfall will
slowly move east-southeast through the rest of the night and
gradually fade as the upper level short wave trough fills.

UPDATE Issued at 440 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Based on radar trends/model data, increased rainfall chances more
for Gove, Sheridan, Graham counties where thunderstorms are
expected to move. Based on the speed of the furthest west storms,
the storm activity should be east of Graham and Gove counties by
11 PM CT. There does appear to be a potential for redevelopment to
the west around 7 PM CT as the theta-e axis the increases to the
northeast. However this higher theta-e axis could be in response
to the ongoing storm development. If storms do not redevelop to
the west in the next couple of hours, storms will be east of
Graham and Gove counties by 9 PM CT.

Overnight another much weaker round of storms may move in from the
west, mainly north of Highway 36. Any storms that do develop will
not be severe and will be east of Red Willow/Norton counties by 8
AM CT. Not too confident this will occur, but wanted to atleast
put a mention of rainfall in the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Updated forecast for increased thunderstorm and severe storm
coverage across the southeastern sections of the forecast area
for the next few hours as storms continue to develop and move
generally east southeastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The forecast concerns in the short term period are the hot daytime
temperatures and the potential for some storms to become severe as
isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop and progress across the
eastern sections of the area during the afternoon and evening hours
today and again on Wednesday.

Afternoon high temperatures approaching the century mark with
dewpoints across the eastern half of the forecast area in the lower
60s will produce an unstable atmosphere east of a line from Tribune,
KS to McCook, NE,  CU developing across southwest and west central
KS along and east of a surface trough will spread across north
central KS with scattered thunderstorms expected across the area by
mid afternoon. Some storms are expected to become severe during the
late afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds.

Overnight low temperatures stay in the lower 70s around the Hill
City area with lows in the lower to mid 60s across far eastern
Colorado tonight.

Temperatures warm quickly again on Wednesday morning with afternoon
high temperatures expected around the century mark east of the
Colorado border area with upper 90s across far eastern Colorado. The
surface trough remains in place over the forecast area with storm
expected to again develop along and east of the surface trough in
the area of greater moisture and instability during the afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will again move across mainly the eastern
sections of the forecast area through the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Wednesday night: Strong to severe storms will continue to be
possible for eastern portions of the area through the evening,
coming to an end before midnight. Lows will be in the mid to upper
60s for most areas.

Thursday: Chance of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and
evening across much of the CWA for Thursday. SPC is currently
highlighting most of the Central High Plains under a Slight Risk for
severe weather. Damaging winds look to be the biggest risk with
DCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg. A chance of showers and storms
continues through the overnight.

Friday-Tuesday: Global models still differ on timing of cold air
infiltration into the area. 12Z GFS MOS Guidance shows Saturday
night and Sunday as the coolest period, whereas the ECMWF MOS has
Saturday into Saturday night as the coolest time frame. Until there
is better agreement and consistency in the models, will continue to
take a blend of the two into Monday. This period looks to be
somewhat wet with chances of rain and thunderstorms each day.
Looking at model soundings, it is possible we will see another
round of strong to severe storms on Monday. Tuesday looks to be
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. Showers will continue to
move east toward the sites. The broken line of storms should last
long enough to move over KGLD based on radar trends. Have less
confidence the storms will hold together for KMCK since it is
further east. Otherwise low level wind shear at KMCK will continue
for a few hours then end as the low level jet shifts east. Winds
will turn from the south to the north for both sites as a surface
trough moves through Wednesday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...JTL



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