Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 051149
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEFINITELY PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
UP UNTIL THAT TIME...BOTH SITES WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 32 KNOT RANGE WITH KGLD HAVING THE HIGHER
SPEEDS AND GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. THIS IS IN ADVANCE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH.

FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT BOTH SITES TO START WITH A VCTS EARLY IN
THE EVENING THEN GO TO A PREVAIL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. DURING
THIS TIME STILL WENT WITH A VFR FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A STRONG
ENOUGH STORM COMES ACROSS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MVFR. AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS ENDS EXPECT THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AND ALSO SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THE TIMING ON ALL
THIS MAY SLOW DOWN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER


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