Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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161 FXUS64 KMAF 140753 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 253 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 WV imagery shows an upper trough over the junction of CA/AZ/Baja del Norte/Sonora this morning, deforming the upper ridge to the SSE. This feature is forecast to open later this morning, and pass through the Four Corners this afternoon. This will bring thicknesses down a little, shaving maybe a degree or so off yeterday`s highs, but highs will still average 6-8 F above normal. This will warrant heat advisories, from some of the mountain ranges to along the Brewster Rio Grande. The trajectory of the trough will also result in isolated afternoon/evening convection over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas. Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ is on track to develop, advecting rich Gulf moisture across the lower terrain. This will retard radiational cooling, despite mostly clear skies, maintaining unseasonably warm overnight mins ` 7-9 F above normal. Saturday, with the upper trough to the east of the area, the ridge builds back in, increasing thicknesses and bringing highs back to where they were yesterday...~ 7-9 F above normal. More Heat Advisories will be needed. Isolated, diurnally-driven convection will be possible in the mountains. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Weak ridging keeps hold this weekend and will keep temperatures just above average for most. KMAF has already had 8 100F days this year with the average being just 17 days. However, the forecast keeps highs just under the century mark at Midland Intl. The hot spots will continue to be the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys where highs will top 105F. Heat advisories will likely need to be issued for some of these areas as heat stress compounds over time. Lows each morning for the early part of next week settle into the 70s across the lower elevations with 60s in the mountains. By the middle of the coming week, heights lower slightly and tropical moisture begins to intrude from the southeast. Long range guidance suggests PWATs ranging from about 1.6" to nearly 2" which would be in the 99th percentile based on sounding climatology for MAF. For the curious, the highest PWAT as recorded by a sounding is 2.10" from the 7/18/86 12z flight. Needless to say, shower and storm chances increase with this abundant moisture, but it is still a bit far out to glean just how much rain falls and where. Temperatures from Wednesday onward take on a cooling trend and end up below normal each afternoon. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. The southeast winds will increase and become gusty late morning/early afternoon Friday. Forecast soundings spawn a cu field everywhere but KINK/KFST, w/bases 4.5-10 kft AGL. Convection is anticipated, mainly SE NM, but chances are too low to warrant a mention attm. A 40+ kt LLJ will keep winds elevated Friday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 99 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 101 73 104 70 / 20 20 10 10 Dryden 100 76 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 101 75 103 74 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 96 70 97 70 / 20 30 10 10 Hobbs 98 70 100 69 / 0 20 10 10 Marfa 97 63 99 63 / 10 10 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 98 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 99 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 104 76 106 75 / 0 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County- Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau. NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...44