Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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640
FXUS64 KMAF 210525
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a cu field invof KFST by late morning,
developing west and north during the early afternoon, w/high bases
of 7-11 kft agl. 35-40kt LLJ forecast to develop after sunset will
keep winds up at KINK/KFST/KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail for the next 24 hours. Current -SHRA
should diminish this evening. Winds will be light out of the SSW
tonight at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery is showing cumulus developing in
the higher elevations from the Guadalupe to the Davis Mountains
this afternoon. Dewpoints are pretty low (20s/30s) so convection
will be high based and low QPF, struggling to maintain itself away
from the mountains. There is very little shear so the severe
threat today will be low. The record high for today is 89 set in
1934 which we have already reached so an old record will fall.
The heat returns tomorrow with another record high expected before
a weak cold front enters the area dropping temperatures back to
only around normal on Wednesday.

Thursday will get interesting as a deep upper level low moves into
the western US near the Four Corners region. Surface pressure
falls ahead of the low will draw moisture back west into
southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains increasing
instability. Models are in good agreement that a line of storms
will develop along a Pacific front and push east across the area
Thursday afternoon. Strong southerly surface flow will combine
with strong westerly mid level winds to produce ample shear so
that some storms should become severe. West winds behind the
Pacific front will advect in dry air possibly producing a brief
fire weather threat for our far western CWA in the afternoon.

The Pacific front will rapidly push east followed by a reinforcing
push of cooler Canadian air Friday night. This will keep
temperatures closer to normal for the end of the week/weekend. An
upper ridge quickly gives way to another trough early next week
keeping the near normal temps through the end of the forecast
period.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  57  83  61 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       92  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         92  61  91  60 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  62  91  59 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 79  59  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          89  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          83  45  85  48 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  57  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         93  58  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           94  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/06/44



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