Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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093 FXUS64 KMAF 122310 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 610 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 An upper level ridge from northern Mexico stretching north into New Mexico will remain in place over the short term forecast period. Increasing subsidence will decrease cloud cover and increase temperatures sending highs into the triple digits for most locations. Southeast winds will advect just enough moisture into the mountains that a few isolated showers or thunderstorms may form though any accumulations would be light. No rain is expected elsewhere. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Friday morning a large upper level ridge will be situated over Texas while a upper low over Baja California will transition into an open shortwave trough, moving up into the Desert Southwest. Our warm up on Friday will be a bit subdued as the shortwave moves across New Mexico, flattening the ridge, and "cooling" temperatures down to the mid to upper 90s for most. Recent model runs have pushed the shortwave further north, shunting the best precipitation chances along with it into northern New Mexico and Colorado. Still, given model disagreement with the progression of this shortwave with each run, have elected to maintain some POPs across the higher terrain and parts of New Mexico for Friday afternoon and evening. As the shortwave moves up and out on Saturday, ridging will build back in and a thermal ridge axis will set up over far West Texas, bumping 850mb temps to the 33-35C across the west and 27-30C across the east. Southwesterly flow returns and subsidence will continue to tick up through the end of the weekend, and the River Valleys reach 110+ Sunday afternoon. Beyond Sunday, the pattern will remain fairly stagnate with above- normal temperatures and dry conditions continuing into mid week. -Zuber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR continues with southeast winds around 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 100 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 105 74 101 / 10 0 0 10 Dryden 75 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 74 102 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 72 97 72 94 / 20 10 10 20 Hobbs 69 101 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 62 98 61 96 / 10 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 72 99 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 74 100 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 75 105 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains- Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...29