National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMAF 141102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARE STILL PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AFTER
YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH IS IMPEDING MVFR CEILING
DEVELOPMENT.  SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED THOUGH, SO WILL INCLUDE AT
LEAST TEMPORARY LOWER CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES.  SHOULD SEE SOME
BREAKS OCCUR AND CEILINGS RISE BY LATE MORNING, WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WILL INCLUDE
THUNDER AT KMAF AND KFST FOR NOW, BUT WAIT AND SEE WHETHER ANY OF
THE OTHER TAF SITES NEED A MENTION.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND WILL
MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
AND SATELLITE INDICATING THAT TWO MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE FIRST WAVE IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD ADVECT NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION INCREASES DUE TO HEATING AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES
NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. CONTINUED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS ALONG EAST OF A
LAMESA TO ODESSA TO FORT STOCKTON TO SANDERSON LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN
AREAS THAT ARE NOTED FOR THEIR POOR WATER DRAINAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY UNDERNEATH THE LOW WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA. HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE LATEST NAM/CMC AND ECMWF ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER AND FLATTER THEN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST
AREAS THESE PERIODS AND COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE FRONT.

BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
SHOULD SHRINK TO ISOLATED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND POSSIBLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  69  91  71  /  60  50  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              84  69  89  72  /  80  80  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                88  68  96  69  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  86  71  91  73  /  80  60  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  69  93  73  /  70  50  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  64  91  70  /  30  20  10  20
HOBBS NM                   85  66  92  67  /  50  30  10  10
MARFA TX                   83  62  89  60  /  50  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  91  72  /  80  70  20  10
ODESSA TX                  83  70  91  72  /  70  60  10  10
WINK TX                    87  71  98  74  /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...
     DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
     MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON.


&&

$$

67/12