Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 192334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions should remain VFR for all TAF locations through the period.
Have a few lingering storms from CNM to E38 but expect these to die
out in the next hour or two.  Not expecting as much low clouds in
the Permian Basin Sunday morning as past few days... only mentioned
SCT stratus at MAF around sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas, courtesy
of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.  Yesterday, a
MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died out before
making it into SE NM.  Current models attempt to replicate this
scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it a little further
SE.  Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from SW NM ESE down
into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of isolated
convection for the next couple of days as abundant diurnal heating
combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the ridge.  Sfc
trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and Monday, and remain
over the western half of the CWA.  Forecast soundings look too warm
for much hail development, but inverted-V profiles suggest strong
winds will remain a threat.  In addition, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a
PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.  Given nil steering flow under
the ridge, heavy rain will be possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





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