Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 201557
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1057 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issuing Flash Flood Watch for Eddy and Culberson Counties 18Z
today through 12Z Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deep southerly monsoonal flow over higher terrain has brought
precipitable water values in excess of 1.50" to that area today.
Upper low over southwest New Mexico this morning to lift northeast
dragging weak trough into western part of area this afternoon and
evening. Combined with good daytime heating and upslope southeast
flow, this area will be favored for thunderstorm development this
afternoon and tonight. The presence of deep moisture along with
the relatively slow movement of any thunderstorms that develop
could bring heavy rainfall, resulting in the threat of flash
flooding across Eddy and Culberson Counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns most of the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
look to persist at all terminals. Thunderstorms are expected to
increase across far western portions of southeast NM and west TX
today, potentially affecting CNM by this afternoon. For now, have
included TEMPO TS at CNM. Otherwise, will continue to monitor radar
trends and amend if needed. Brief gusty and erratic winds as well as
decreased vis can be expected with any storm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge center over TX with High pressure extending from AZ
eastward to the Atlantic.  An upper trough over CA is expected to
develop into a cut off low before weakening later in the week and
rolling over the top of the ridge.  After it passes the ridge will
build back across the Western US.

Looking at a few more days of near normal high temperatures in the
mid 90s before a weak cold front sags down into the area midweek.
May see highs down into the 80s Wednesday and Thursday before warming
back into the 90s next weekend.  Clouds cover much of the region
this morning except for parts of the east and are helping to hold up
overnight temps.  Lows will continue in the 60s and 70s.

Had some nocturnal showers over the Trans Pecos early this morning
with storms over parts of SE NM.  Not only have high dewpts into the
70s this morning over the west but aloft pacific moisture is getting
funneled between the upper low to the west and the high to the east.
Have increased pops today and tonight out west... main concern will
be potential for locally heavy rain.  However the heaviest rain is
expected to be west of the region.  Expect storms to stay mainly
over the west again Monday but spread farther eastward on Tuesday.
On Wednesday and Thursday surface wind will be easterly and keep
expect rain chances to continue as boundary may become focus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       92  68  90  69 /  30  40  30  10
Dryden                         98  73  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  70  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  64  82  65 /  40  50  40  10
Hobbs                          90  67  88  68 /  10  20  20  10
Marfa                          87  62  88  63 /  20  30  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           95  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         94  71  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           96  70  95  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/05


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