Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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018
FXUS64 KMAF 230904
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
404 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Generally northerly flow aloft is expected to continue through
the next seven days with a nearly stationary upper ridge centered
across the southwest United States. It will be another day of
significant heat across much of west Texas as 850 millibar
temperatures soar with aid from compressional heating south of an
advancing cold front. A Heat Advisory will continue along and
south of a Guadalupe Pass, Wink, Odessa, Garden City line today.

Thunderstorms will also be possible by this afternoon across the
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico, closest to the
southward advancing cold front. More isolated storms could fire
across much of the remainder of the forecast area in mid level
moisture as the cap breaks under the extreme heat.

Tonight still appears to be a stormy one as the aforementioned
strong cold front plunges south into the region with a strong
upper level disturbance. Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall will be possible as copious low level moisture advects
into the region to feed the front via a 30 knot low level jet
from the Rio Grande Valley. It looks like the northeastern and
east central Permian Basin will have the greatest areal coverage
of storms and best potential for heavy rainfall based on the track
of the upper level disturbance combined with precipitable water
values approaching two inches. It will becoming breezy to windy
behind the front tonight with very windy conditions developing
through the Guadalupe Pass of west Texas.

Saturday through Monday will feature the continued chance for
showers and thunderstorms with much cooler and much below normal
temperatures. This will occur in a widespread moist upslope flow
regime with a continual stream of upper level disturbances
tracking into the region from the north and northwest.

Beyond Monday northerly flow aloft will continue next week with
with warming temperatures. Thunderstorms will be possible in the
mountains in intense heating each day. More isolated storms look
possible in portions of the plains of west Texas and southeast New
Mexico as additional weak disturbances interact with mid level
moisture and intense diurnal heating along a weak surface
trough/dryline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  68  79  68 /  30  60  30  20
Carlsbad                      105  70  84  69 /  10  20  20  30
Dryden                        106  77  96  73 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                 108  72  84  69 /  10  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                100  65  77  64 /  10  10  20  40
Hobbs                         101  64  79  65 /  30  30  20  30
Marfa                         103  68  84  63 /  10  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport          106  69  82  68 /  20  50  20  20
Odessa                        105  69  81  68 /  20  40  20  20
Wink                          108  70  85  69 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

10/12



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