Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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920
FXUS64 KMAF 271705
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1205 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under
clear to partly cloudy skies at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. The exception will be KMAF
where prevailing MVFR ceilings are expected from 09z/28 to 14z/28.
There is some chance that IFR conditions could develop during
that timeframe at KMAF but confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention. In addition some showers or thunderstorms in or
near KMAF can not be ruled out after 06z/28 but confidence was not
high enough at this time to mention as well.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight at all area terminals.
Moisture will return to the region tonight with low clouds possibly
affecting KMAF late.  Will not include any mention at this time
since it will be after 28/09Z, and KMAF may be the only terminal
affected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

Today should be a pleasant day across much of the area before an
upper trough brings some unsettled weather on Tuesday. The trough
will deepen as it swings southeast across the Four Corners region.
Surface winds will swing around to the southeast and transport
Gulf moisture into West Texas. A dryline will set up across the
Permian Basin and be the focus for severe weather. Still some
uncertainty with the set up for this event as morning convection
could effect how the day plays out. Right now, the east/central
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will be the most likely to see
storms on Tuesday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats. There will be chance for a tornado or two given the
parameters in place, especially over the Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos where the vertical and directional shear is
best. West of the dryline will be windy conditions and lower
dewpoints leading to fire weather concerns. See fire weather
discussion below for more details. High winds will be possible
across the Guadalupe Mountains and above 6000 feet in the Davis
Mountains as strong upper level jets wrap around the base of the
trough Tuesday and Wednesday.

Storms should move out of the area overnight Tuesday as the
Pacific front blasts east. A cold front coming in from the north
will bring gusty north winds and an extra shot of cooler air,
which will keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s for Wednesday.
A gradual warm up expected Thursday and Friday as the trough lifts
northeast. Will see a jump to around 10 degrees above normal on
Friday with temperatures in the 80s.

The progressive pattern continues into the weekend as the next
trough will move ashore and moves across the Rockies. Depending
on the track of this low pressure system, it could bring some rain
and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast. System will also
bring more cold air Saturday and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

A cold front will push southwest to the Pecos River before stalling
this morning, but minimum RHs will still drop to 10-15 percent
areawide this afternoon as temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above
normal.  Southwest winds over portions of the Guadalupe Mountains
and SE NM Plains will be 15-25 mph sustained this afternoon, and
since isolated critical conditions could occur in the Guadalupes,
will issue a Fire Danger Statement for these areas.  After poor
recovery west, good recovery east tonight, fire weather concerns
will increase Tuesday as an upper storm system approaches.  Will
issue a Fire Weather Watch for locations along and west of a
Seminole to Fort Stockton line.  More critical fire weather could
occur Wednesday, but mainly over southwest Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  82  49  75 /  10  40  40  10
Carlsbad                       52  76  47  71 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                         59  86  56  80 /   0  20  40  10
Fort Stockton                  57  85  52  75 /  10  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 53  65  47  62 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          49  74  45  67 /   0  10  20  20
Marfa                          41  78  39  69 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  82  49  75 /  10  20  30  10
Odessa                         57  81  49  73 /  10  10  30  10
Wink                           52  81  48  74 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/06



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