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000
FXUS64 KMAF 131106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND ARE SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD.
THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCNM.
IT APPEARS THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER UNTIL 13/16Z OR 13/17Z AT
MOST OF THE AFFECTED SITES.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STILL HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES SINCE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND TODAY AND THEN NORTH INTO WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM TODAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
LOW. SOME CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SPREADING NORTH WITH HELP FROM A 20 TO 30 KNOT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE TO DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND LOWERING HEIGHTS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAWIDE THUNDERSTORMS (CHANCE TO LIKELY)
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BORDER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO SHEAR FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WITH
POOR LAPSE RATES AND CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT
INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUDY MOIST REGIME.

LATEST CMC AND ECMWF NOW INDICATING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER
AND FLATTER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA THESE DAYS.

UPPER RIDGE MAY FINALLY BECOME STRONGER NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 93  67  85  69  /  10  20  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              93  68  86  69  /  10  20  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                95  67  87  68  /  10  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  70  85  71  /  40  50  70  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  68  86  69  /  20  30  60  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  61  82  64  /  20  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   92  66  84  66  /  10  20  40  40
MARFA TX                   85  60  79  62  /  40  40  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    92  68  84  69  /  20  30  60  40
ODESSA TX                  92  67  85  70  /  20  30  60  40
WINK TX                    96  70  88  71  /  20  30  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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