Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 161622
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1022 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will continue veering to the south over the next 24 hours
as the sfc ridge continues moving east. A weak warm front will
push into the area overnight on return flow, w/isentropic upglide
bringing MVFR stratus into the region beginning mid-evening.
Buffer soundings suggest cigs improving to VFR by the end of the
forecast period everywhere but KMAF, KFST, and KINK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Slightly below normal temperatures will prevail today as a surface
ridge dominates the region, and high clouds begin to increase from
the west ahead of an oncoming ua trough.  A shortwave trough will
eject eastward over the region Wednesday before the upper trough
axis swings overhead Thursday night.  This will allow temperatures
to warm back above normal Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition,
there will be a slight chance of showers over the eastern Permian
Basin Wednesday, with a bit better chance Thursday night over most
of the forecast area.  There are some indications there will be very
modest elevated instability on both Wednesday and Thursday night for
thunderstorms to develop.  However, the upper trough does not look
overly impressive, and there will not be much moisture to work with,
so will carry showers for now.  There is not a lot of cold air
associated with the ua trough Thursday night, but some of the
precipitation could mix with snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Due to warm surface temperatures and
fairly light precipitation amounts, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Another cold front will ease into the area Friday and cool
temperatures back below normal.  Broad and weak upper troughing over
much of the ConUS through the weekend will also tend temperatures to
near or slightly below.  Another upper trough will dig through the
central Rockies this weekend, and over the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday.  This system is less amplified and faster than in
previous day`s model runs, so have backed off on PoPs Sunday and
Monday.  After coordinating with surrounding offices, will still
carry a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday, and wait
for better agreement to reinsert any higher chances.  Temperatures
will be near normal into early next week with the passage of this
trough.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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