Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
000
FXUS64 KMAF 140735
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
235 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
WV satellite imagery shows the well-advertised upper level low
sitting over Arizona where it will remain stationary for the next
several days, pushing moisture into Texas and New Mexico. Surface
observing stations in the Panhandle show a northerly wind shift
this morning, indicating that a cold front associated with the low
has made it to Texas and is likely to reach the northern portions
of the CWA by this afternoon. Prior to the arrival of this front,
southwesterly flow aloft and fairly clear skies should allow
ample warming to the 70s to low 80s for most locations, with
substantially lighter winds compared to yesterday making for a
gorgeous day out there. As the front reaches the CWA this evening,
temperatures will quickly fall while post-frontal northeasterly
winds will become gusty, lingering through most of the night.
There may be a brief period of high winds in the Guadalupe
Mountains Friday morning as the front moves across, but the
timeframe looks to be too short to warrant any wind products. Rain
chances will increase with the passage of the front as better
low-level moisture is pushed in, but models continue to hold off
on the better chances for rain until sunrise Friday morning.
Temperatures moving into Friday morning may be spared with the
uptick in winds, along with the increasing cloud cover over the
region, so morning lows should bottom out in the 40s across the
north and 50s across the south.
The front will remain a feature for rain to develop throughout
Friday, although QPF in the short term remains fairly low even
with on-and-off rain for most of the day. Model soundings show
the possibility of some claps of thunder on Friday beginning
around 18z across the eastern Permian Basin, but instability is
fairly limited. Best chances for rain look to be along and north
of the Trans Pecos, especially Friday morning, before things begin
to taper off Friday afternoon/early evening. With heavy cloud
cover for most of the day and rain likely ongoing, highs on Friday
may not break above the 50s for those along and north of I-10.
-Zuber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Cool, dreary, and damp are three words that can just about sum up
the extended forecast. The much-advertised slow-moving midlevel
trough will be entrenched over western Arizona heading into Friday
night, where it will remain fairly stationary through the weekend
into early next week. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly flow
aloft will persist, along with easterly to southeasterly surface
flow, with Gulf moisture routed northwestward over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico toward the Four Corners Region. This will
spell continued moistening of the column, with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms possible Friday night through at least
Tuesday. While temperatures Saturday will moderate somewhat in the
wake of the front Thursday night into Friday, it will still be on
the cool side for the middle of March, with highs in the 50s
across the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico, 60s to the
south and west, with 70s and lower 80s focused south of US-90
toward the Big Bend.
Ensemble clusters and deterministic guidance remain in good
agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned trough/low
to the west through a majority of the extended, with the low
progged to wobble around central and western Arizona through
Monday/Tuesday. Heading into midweek, the low should weaken and
transition into an open wave, with the pattern finally becoming a
bit more progressive. Until then, however, the aforementioned
increase in moisture will result in precipitable water values over
the region roughly 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal, per
NAEFS standardized anomaly data. These anomalously high
precipitable water values as well as potential for multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms due to passing shortwaves in the
southwesterly flow aloft bode well for those hoping for relief
from the prolonged drought across Southeast New Mexico and West
Texas. Forecast QPF varies widely from southwest to northeast for
the duration, with only a couple of tenths across southwestern
areas, increasing to a half inch or more along and north/east of
the Pecos River, with forecast amounts closer to an inch across
portions of Southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos.
Fortunately, this rain would be spread out over several days, and
currently, flooding is not a concern. However, it bears mentioning
that ensemble cluster analyses indicate multiple 24-hour periods
that have a medium (40% to 60%) probability of seeing at least a
tenth of an inch of rain, especially for portions of the Permian
Basin and Southeast New Mexico.
Fortunately, in this set up, instability will remain fairly
limited, thus severe weather is not expected. However, with any
passing short wave, thunderstorms may result, particularly if the
timing is coincident with peak heating. These thunderstorms would
produce local enhancement to rainfall amounts, with the best
chance for storms largely across eastern areas and across the
mountains. The exception will be Sunday night, when another cold
front associated with a broader trough over the Great Lakes and
Upper Midwest moves through the region, potentially acting as a
focus for storms across a majority of the area. Aside from the
precipitation chances, as to be expected with persistent cloud
cover and easterly flow, below normal temperatures in the 50s and
60s for most each day, and mild overnight lows in the 40s each
night are reasonable until midweek, when it looks like we may
finally dry out and start warming back up. Stay tuned.
JP
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
VFR should continue for the next 24 hours, although there will be
lowering CIGs just beyond this TAF period as -RA moves in the
evening. Winds will switch from westerly to more northeasterly as
a cold front passes through today, likely reaching the
Midland/Odessa area between 00-03z with gusty winds behind the
front. -RA will be increasing from west to east, and continue
through the evening and into Friday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 79 45 56 45 / 0 30 80 30
Carlsbad 75 43 52 44 / 0 40 60 50
Dryden 84 54 72 53 / 0 30 50 60
Fort Stockton 81 49 60 48 / 0 40 60 50
Guadalupe Pass 67 43 49 41 / 0 30 30 40
Hobbs 74 40 53 41 / 0 40 80 50
Marfa 75 40 64 40 / 0 10 20 30
Midland Intl Airport 79 46 55 46 / 0 40 70 50
Odessa 78 47 56 46 / 0 50 70 50
Wink 79 46 57 46 / 0 50 70 60
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...88