009
FXUS64 KMAF 161847
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
147 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Similar to yesterday we are seeing Cu development across the Davis
Mountains where daytime heating meets upslope, moist flow. A few of
these storms could go severe once again as storm travel to the
south. Further north, a weak dryline sits across the western Permian
Basin while another boundary left over from storms last night lays
across northeast portions of the region. Both of these boundaries
could be a focus for storm development as we go through the
afternoon. Elsewhere, the hot temperatures continue with many
locations near or above 100 currently. The Heat Advisory continues
for areas along and west of the Pecos River. Very similar conditions
are expected Monday so will extend the advisory for the same
locations another day. Isolated storms are possible once again in
the Davis Mountains Monday afternoon.

-Rick

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Not much has changed with the forecast heading in to mid and late
week. Models agree with tropical moisture increasing across the area
Wednesday and beyond as a tropical wave or possibly something more
organized makes landfall along the Texas coast. The big question is
how strong will the upper ridge over the central and eastern U.S.
be? If this ridge is stronger and extends more into our area,
most of the rain will stay mainly south of I-10 or into Mexico. If
the ridge is weaker, much of the area could see rain, some of
which could be heavy. Either way, higher moisture levels will mean
much cooler temperatures. Highs will fall back into the 80s or
even 70s late week! Stay tuned!

-Rick

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR continues with gusty south to southeast winds through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72 106  71 103 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                   75 100  74  97 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74 103  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           71  97  70  94 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                    71 101  69  99 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                    64  99  64  96 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     74  98  74  96 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                   75  99  74  96 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                     76 106  76 102 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for Central
     Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT Monday for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29