131
FXUS64 KMOB 210450
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1150 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours,
except for the potential of some localized patchy fog mainly over
portions of extreme southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest
Alabama. Calm or light and variable winds overnight become
southeasterly 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday afternoon. The
exception will be late tonight with the development of some
localized patchy fog primarily across portions of interior
southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama. Any fog should
dissipate around sunrise. Light and variable winds tonight become
southeasterly around 5-10 knots on Tuesday. /14

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Dry conditions will continue across the forecast area tonight
through Tuesday as deep ridging continues to build across over
Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Upper level
troughing continues off the Atlantic coast and also over the western
third of the CONUS. Increasing subsidence from the riding will
continue to prevent formation of any showers or storms through the
near term, and also allow for above normal temperatures. Expect
mostly clear skies tonight and then a continuation of partly cloudy
skies on Tuesday with daytime heating. Light and variable winds for
most locations tonight, then expect a light southeast to southerly
flow on Tuesday, slightly stronger near the coast during the
afternoon hours.

As previously mentioned, temperatures will be a little above normal
both tonight and Tuesday. Lows tonight will mainly be ranging from
the mid 60s over most interior locations to the upper 60s and lower
70s closer to and along the coast. High temperatures on Tuesday will
again be quite warm, primarily warming into the upper 80s for most
locations (perhaps a few lower 90s, especially over portions of
southeast Mississippi), and in the mid 80s near the coast (with a
few lower 80s possible along the beaches and barrier islands).
DS/12

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

An upper level ridge stretching north over the eastern Conus shifts
southeast as a series of shortwave troughs move over the Southeast.
Upper level high pressure remains over the Gulf of Mexico into Latin
America, though. A surface ridge builds west over the Gulf of
Mexico, bringing a more organized onshore flow to the Lower
Mississippi River Valley and Southeast. Moisture levels increase
mainly over areas west of the forecast area, with subsidence from
the upper ridge counter-balancing the flow off the Gulf and keeping
moisture increases modest. Subsidence from the upper level high
pressure will also limit any precipitation over or near the forecast
area, along with keeping temperatures above seasonal norms. High
temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 are expected Wednesday and
Thursday. Low temperatures see an uptick through the Short Term,
with mainly 60s Tuesday night rising into the mid 60s to low 70s by
Thursday night.

Even with an increasing tidal cycle into mid week, light and
variable flow south of the coast will bring weak onshore swell and a
low risk of rip currents into mid week.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Guidance is advertising the band of higher moisture levels west of
the forecast area shifting to the northern half of the Southeast and
Tennessee River Valley. With several rounds of shortwave energy
passing north of the forecast area, showers and thunderstorms return
to the Southeast. For the forecast area, the highest chance of rain
remains north of Highway 84, and a slight chance to low chance at
that. High pressure over the Gulf remains in control through the
Extended, with high temperatures around 90 to the low 90s over most
of the forecast area. Moisture levels creep upward enough that
daytime Heat Indices rise to around 100F by Sunday and last into the
coming week. Low temperatures creep up into the around 70 to low 70s
range over the forecast area by the weekend.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Expect a primarily east to southeast flow over the marine
area through midweek, then a more consistent southerly flow by late
week and into the early part of the weekend. Seas generally
remaining 2 feet or less through most of the period, possibly
building slightly by the weekend. No significant hazards to small
craft are expected at this time. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  86  67  86  68  89  71  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   69  84  69  85  71  86  73  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Destin      71  84  71  84  72  86  74  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   62  89  63  90  66  92  67  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  20
Waynesboro  65  89  65  90  66  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  20
Camden      63  87  64  89  66  90  67  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  20
Crestview   62  89  63  90  65  91  66  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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