654
FXUS64 KMOB 041750
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1250 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MVFR ceilings along the coastal areas will gradually improve to
VFR through mid-afternoon. Chance for precipitation increases
inland areas this afternoon into early evening while a few showers
closer to the coast end around mid-afternoon. Localized IFR
ceilings and visibilities can be expected in and near the stronger
showers and storms inland. A few of the storms could bring
strong, gusty winds. Surface winds will primarily be southeast to
south around 10 knots with gusts to near 20 knots through early
evening decreasing to around 5 knots overnight. /22

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

We will continue to see a continuation of a series of
impulses/shortwave disturbances moving in a west-northwest flow
aloft to aid in the trigger for mainly diurnal convection over the
next several days. A few showers and storms, the remnants of one
of these disturbances, are moving east across the forecast area
during the predawn hours this morning. This activity could last
into the morning daytime hours on Tuesday, especially for our
eastern and southern counties. Another convective system
(associated with the next shortwave feature) has developed over
Oklahoma early this morning, and will be the next system to drop
east-southeast toward our area today and this evening. CAMs
continue to show this MCS CS pushing across the ArkLaTex region
this morning, and moving fairly quickly across Louisiana southern
Mississippi in the afternoon, with remnants moving into southwest
Alabama this evening before dissipating over the area by around
midnight or just thereafter during the predawn hours Wednesday. It
still appears that deep layer shear will be a bit stronger with
this system today, which could bolster a better threat for strong
to severe storms this afternoon SPC has a SLIGHT severe threat
just to the west of our forecast area for today and tonight, with
a MARGINAL severe threat over our western area (west of I-65), so
a strong to severe storm or two could be possible this afternoon
or evening. Yet another impulse will bring scattered showers and
storms to the area again on Wednesday. Highs today will generally
be in the upper 80s across most of the area (low to mid 80s at the
coast) and then slightly warmer (in the upper 80s to lower 90s
inland and mid to upper 80s coastal) on Wednesday. Lows tonight
are expected to be in the upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s
closer to and along the coast. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  88  73  88  72  93  69  91 /  10  30  30  50  20  20  10  10
Pensacola   76  87  75  87  75  92  71  90 /  10  30  40  50  20  30  10  10
Destin      76  86  76  87  76  90  72  88 /  10  30  30  50  20  30  20  10
Evergreen   68  91  70  88  70  91  63  90 /  10  40  40  70  20  20   0  10
Waynesboro  69  92  70  88  70  91  65  91 /  20  30  50  40  20  20   0  10
Camden      69  91  69  87  70  89  63  89 /  20  30  50  50  20  20   0  10
Crestview   69  90  70  90  70  94  65  92 /  10  30  30  70  20  30  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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