Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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138 FXUS64 KOUN 260916 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 416 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 416 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The storms have moved out. There is some stratus and a few areas of 2 to 6 mile visibility with some light fog across north central and west central Oklahoma. Will not include the mention of fog in the grids at this point since visibilities are still above 2 miles, but will watch trends and add fog if necessary. The cold front (if you want to call it cold) is moving through western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles now and will move through the area through the day. It will bring lower dewpoint and northwest winds, but not cooler weather. In fact with the sunny skies, lower humidity and downslope component to winds, most areas will see warmer temperatures today than yesterday. But this airmass will allow for a pleasant, cooler night tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 416 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 After another quiet day Monday, we will go into a more active pattern/stormy pattern again. But at least in this pattern, organized severe weather does not look at likely. On Monday night and Tuesday, southerly low-level flow begins to develop over Texas and isentropic lift over the frontal surface aids in thunderstorm development as early as Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, with an easterly/upslope component to the surface winds north of the warm front will help to produce additional storms over the High Plains that will move toward the area as well. This will be the first of a number of storm complexes rolling off the High Plains toward the forecast area through the mid to late week time frame under zonal or northwesterly flow aloft. With thunderstorm complexes such as this, we will have some potential to see severe weather in the form of strong winds or hail, but the severe weather potential will be more dependent on mesoscale features and not as easy to identify too far in advance compared to some of our recent severe weather events from forcing associated with synoptic-scale troughs. So while we may have some strong or severe storms with these storm complexes, it is not possible to identify specific times or areas very far in advance. In addition, with multiple rounds of storms later this week, there will be some potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding if multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain affect the same area, although again it is way too early to be able to focus on any specific areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Some transient patchy fog will be possible across parts of central and southern Oklahoma in the wake of last evening`s storms. Dense fog appears unlikely. Low level wind shear should wind down over the next several hours with the departure of the low level jet. Breezy winds will become more westerly during the day before diminishing and becoming northerly tonight. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 92 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 94 61 93 64 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 98 64 93 67 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 89 55 91 60 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 87 58 87 61 / 10 0 0 10 Durant OK 95 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...14