170
FXUS64 KOUN 071112
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
612 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Although some of the precipitation is likely evaporating before
reaching the ground, the showers that have developed from central
to southeastern Oklahoma have continued to expand. There is a
relatively narrow axis of moisture on the 315K isentropic surface
(roughly 650 mb or so) oriented where these showers are
developing. There seems to be an even smaller area where there was
progged to be some isentropic lift, but apparently it is
sufficient for these scattered showers. Have added the mention of
showers this morning along and east of this axis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are moving into western Kansas from
eastern Colorado, and additional showers have been developing
recently in the north central Texas panhandle and central
Oklahoma panhandle. These have not been predicted by most of the
models, although the 00Z HiRes-FV3 and 06Z NAM did hint of them
albeit not exactly in the right place. Cloud top are cooling
slowly. A couple of small showers have developed in Garvin County
and in southern Pushmataha County where there had been no
significant model signal for any convection this morning. Clouds
tops are still relatively warm in these areas. So, confidence is
not high on any model having a good handle on the short-term
evolution. Have kept some low POPs spreading east across northern
Oklahoma this morning for the convection in western Kansas
perhaps developing southward toward the area, and will watch radar
and mesoanalysis trends to see if we may see persistence in the
south central/southeast Oklahoma convection or the north central
Texas panhandle convection.

Tonight there is a stronger and more consistent signal among the
models of convection developing across the northern panhandles and
southwest Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, and
spreading east into northwestern Oklahoma. The upper flow and the
projected path of the shortwave looks like much of the
precipitation will be in Kansas once we get into the late evening,
but it`s worth keeping some POPs in northern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The relatively weak mid-level ridge from Texas toward New Mexico
never builds strongly into the area, and we remain close enough to
the mid-level flow to get a series of shortwaves riding over the
ridge over the next few days. Potentially stronger waves are
projected to move through Saturday night and Sunday night that
both look to develop afternoon storms on the High Plains of
Colorado and then push thunderstorms toward the area overnight. On
Saturday night, the storms will initially primarily be in
northern Oklahoma, although they may spread south into central
Oklahoma early Sunday morning as a surface cold front moves south.
Sunday night`s wave looks to be farther south as it moves across
the area and bring higher chances throughout the forecast area.
After this, there are more significant differences in the medium-
range models. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a strong mid-level low
over Manitoba or Saskatchewan on Saturday with a west-east trough
axis across southern Canada. The GFS brings this low into the
northern U.S. Plains and then southeast into the central
Mississippi Valley area by Monday night. With this, the surface
front gets pushed to our south well into Texas. But the ECMWF has
this mid-level low wobbling over the southern Canadian prairie
provinces into early next week and therefore not pushing cooler
air very far south. The main impact on these differences will be
how long precip chances linger into Monday night/Tuesday, and the
high temperatures on Tuesday and right now the NBM is going for a
middle ground.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions expected this TAF period. Some showers/storms could
affect portions of northern OK this morning. Additional
showers/storms will be possible later today into tonight with
highest chances in NW OK. Winds will generally shift to the S and
SE becoming gusty, especially in western parts of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  75  96  72 /  10  10   0  10
Hobart OK         96  76 100  73 /  10   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  95  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           98  72  99  65 /  20  30  20  50
Ponca City OK     91  73  99  69 /  20  20  20  40
Durant OK         91  73  94  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25